Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

My thoughts are that she is intending to frighten the bejeebers out of the rest of her party so that they vote for Maydeal. She is also trying to prevent a successful vote of confidence following her deal being voted down by demoralising any in her own party and the DUP who might vote against her. This is sheer politicking with no thought for the country. I would have thought that what all those who want neither Maydeal or No Deal should be doing is making sure that we are all aware that there are still other choices – right up to the wire if that is where May takes us.

The reason they are wrangling with the EU is because, in the future, they want to rewrite history so they can blame the EU and The Will Of The People for the effects of Austerity.

They’re already doing it with their narrative of how unreasonable and unfair the EU are being.

From the FT in September this year:

More than 80 per cent of UK manufacturers say they are unprepared for a no-deal Brexit scenario, while one in six believes that reverting to World Trade Organization rules if negotiations failed would make their business “untenable”.

The level of concern and lack of contingency planning among Britain’s manufacturers just six months before the country is due to leave the EU was revealed in a survey conducted by EEF, the industry trade body.

“The effect of no deal is pretty much nothing short of catastrophic for many of the larger companies. They are so integrated [in terms of their supply chains], we would see closure of plants,” said Stephen Phipson, EEF chief executive.

45% of UK exports come from the manufacturing sector. The UK is 4th in the world for exports (10th for goods, 2nd for services).

52% of total manufactured exports by value went to the EU in the 12 months to April 2016.

I agree with the sentiment that saying we can't remain because leavers will be angry ignores the fact that many remainers will be equally if not more angry at leaving and have shown themselves far more likely and motivated to get out on the street and do something about it.

There is no option that will result in nobody being pissed off. On balance I would rather have a bunch of leavers rioting with food in the supermarkets than remainers doing it at the same time as food and medicine shortages take hold.

frank that article is about the growth of India rather than the demise of the UK. It postulates that due to short term currency fluctuations France and the UK may swap places and back again - hardly Armageddon.

This is a much more wide ranging piece looking at the EU, including UK, and the challenges to growth.

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/19/is-predicting-eu-growth-of-19-being-over-optimistic

I agree with it that the 1.9% EU growth figure looks optimistic, given both Germany and France have downgraded predictions for 2018 and 2019 in the last couple of weeks. Good job the UK is outperforming predictions at the start of the year.

If it would be a better system to land directly at British ports, WHY do you think it is not being done now ?

It is being done now - for the vast majority of non-EU goods where a whole consignment is destined for the UK. There could be a multitude of reasons why you'd do it differently though - timings of sailings, convenience of shipping in bulk to one location, spare (and therefore cheap) capacity on a particular ship, a particular break-bulk or processing facility at a particular port, whatever. The important thing is that it's only done because it's (currently) convenient to do it - there are easily accessible alternatives which don't involve south-coast ports or a congested EU/UK border.

It's worth noting that it costs less to ship a container from China to Rotterdam than it does to deliver a container from Rotterdam to Birmingham by road. It's in nobody's interest to waste money moving things by road unnecessarily.

Many have and contingency plans are already in place. We’re not all as incompetent as the government.

Large and successful companies tend to be run by people who are competent by most measures. But preparing for disruptive and unpredictable events is extremely difficult.

Do you work in industry, howabout?

I work in strategic planning for a large manufacturing company and in my personal opinion my employer's plans look rather inadequate. But any adequate plan would make little business sense, because of the cost of holding inventory, sending exports by plane to avoid hold-ups etc.

The only sensible strategy for a manufacturer operating in European JIT supply chains is to move manufacturing for European customers out of the UK (and this will definitely happen, but not in time for a no deal Brexit).

There is nothing that the UK offers that cannot be relocated to other EU countries

As we have already seen - how many firms have already moved operations (but not staff) out of the UK. The most recent being a company moving to Dublin to remain in the Galileo project.

I suspect for every announcement of jobs moved, there will be an unannounced proportion too.

How a lot of Leavers see the EU's current stance and the WA:

"Brexit divorce analogy: YOU keep everything as before and date anyone you want to. I'm not allowed to even speak to another person until you say its ok I can't move out or buy new things and you can come to my B'day sit next to me with your new partners. OR I just leave"

"The effect of no deal is pretty much nothing short of catastrophic for many of the larger companies. They are so integrated [in terms of their supply chains], we would see closure of plants,” said Stephen Phipson, EEF chief executive.

This is absolutely correct. It's actually harder for the large companies, because they are the ones in JIT supply chains (most SMEs are not exporters). I don't think my employer is adequately prepared - and that's being kind - but I don't think they are in any way exceptional.

Production is going to move now, deal or no deal, my colleagues in manufacturing are all shitting themselves.

I wonder if there's a political trade off of appeasing Leavers (already proven to be ... malleable voters) over Remainers (who are a PITA with their "facts" and "experts") going on here ?

I think a lot of leavers think hurrah to the loss of financial services in London, and I can see why they think that way and certainly it has massively contributed to he inequality between the SE and rest of UK, but, moving to a model less dependent on financial services can't be done overnight amid the chaos of no deal. The loss of that part of the economy in one swoop will damage every person in the country, not just the "greedy bankers".

A move to a more balanced economy needs to be done carefully while we still have EU investment and with a government with the will to do it.

Labour under Corbyn might have if he wasn't just as much a swivel eyed leaver as the far right.

I was a Labour Party member and voted for Corby in 2015. Boy do I regret that! Now if I can admit to a disastrous voting mistake, why can't other?

There is nothing that the UK offers that cannot be relocated to other EU countries

If that is the case, which it isn't, then why has it not happened even when we were in the EU. With frictionless trade there is more not less incentive to relocate from consumer markets.

80% of EU whisky and 70% of EU Gin was UK production last year. Most of that is in Scotland. Good luck with relocating the whisky.

@howabout persisting with a false analogy is just making you more fixed in error.
If you really see membership of the EU as being similar to domestic violence or abuse, you are going to find No Deal a much more abusive and damaging situation.

Two words- Irish Whiskey . Another two Suntori whisky.

Somehow I don't think the Scottish Whisky industry is what keeps the country afloat. This sounds a little better than Loathsome crowing that we could sell jam to other countries, but not a great deal better.

English wine should be good this year after our unusually hot summer. That'll scare the French

steve hawkes @steve_hawkes
EXCL Britain will have to “call time” on immigration enforcement in land in a chaotic No Deal, Border Force plan to use them at the ports to sort the queues

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Staggering story from @steve_hawkes. Failing Home Office have recruited so few new border staff for No Deal that they’re having to pull staff away from other key roles to man the borders.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8012454/immigration-enforcement-staff-may-be-redeployed-to-borders-to-deal-with-potential-chaos-at-ports-and-airports-under-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/
'ILLEGALS' FREE REIN Immigration enforcement staff may be redeployed to borders to deal with potential chaos at ports and airports under a No Deal Brexit

Insiders claim immigration enforcement in Britain will have to take a back seat if the PM cannot push through a deal with Brussels chiefs

I suppose whisky sounds a bit more grown-up than jam

Beth Rigby
‏*@BethRigby*
Just putting this out there: Cabinet minister told me y'day they were 80% sure that May would, in the end, get her deal thru. Why/how? EU will give her something but will wait to the last minute. DUP will eventually come on boardand wavering Brexit rebels fold in face of No-Deal

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Cool. Suppliers of fridge mountain required for NHS medicines stockpile because of No Deal Brexit, will themselves have to reapply for new UK quota system for control of fluorinated gases also because of No Deal Brexit according to this DEFRA notice. : DEFRA Notice

most meta No Deal Brexit reality since Kent County Council warned earlier this month that the increase in food and animal checks necessary from No Deal Brexit would be disrupted by the No Deal transport difficulties in obtaining chemicals from Europe required to do said testing

... or fact that in order to do said sanitary/phytosanitary checks on post Brexit EU trade (Deal or no deal) requires massive increase in number of vets... But vast bulk of vets employed in such activities have been EU citizens who arrived under freedom of movement.

No Deal. The simplist and easiest thing since the invention of sliced bread.

Giles Derrington @G_Derrington
Today @techUK warns that the idea of a 'managed No Deal' is a complete fiction. Speaking to our members it is difficult to overstate the number of things that will break if we stumble into No Deal. It is staggering that this even has to be a discussion. @techUKCEO

Laugh all you like but the reality is our economy is not driven by goods exports, whisky or otherwise. Why does it then make sense to sign a WA which looks after importers to the UK while doing nothing to protect home production or the service industry which does drive our economy? That is the broader point

If Beth Rigby's source is correct then it suggests that the EU are willing to drop the Backstop and thus blow a hole in Bigchoc's theory. I don't think they will.

Are any more marches planned in support of a People's Vote?