Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

Brexit Is Destroying Britain’s Constitution

foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/18/brexit-is-destroying-britains-constitution/

Whatever the outcome, Brexit has triggered an irreversible collapse of Britain's political, legal, and social order.
Lacking a written constitution, Britain has always relied on what we might call “alternating majoritarianism” for political stability. One party gets in and is allowed free rein to do what it wants. The fact that the British public generally has taken a dim view of parties it considered too extreme has generally forced these supposedly all-powerful majority parties away from their members’ views and toward the political center. And under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, centrist third parties face structural hurdles that prevent them from making headway.
That system is now broken

The only certainty is that Britain’s political rewards now go to men and women who promote polarization, not compromise.
Expect divisions to deepen and radicalization to progress further. David Cameron’s decision to hold this referendum about a question so fundamental to Britain’s national identity opened up this chasm in the country.

Which then raise the question: how are we going to get out this mess of everyone is so polarised that it can’t possibly listen to the other side?

Good morning!

Long time lurker here.

It occurs to me that bullies should always be called out.

Our illustrious dictatorial PM, is a prime example of a bully trying to panic people into voting for her WA. What a nasty strategy!

Parliament should call her bluff. No one should allow themselves to be fooled by May. We know how mediocre she is, clearly shown in her total inability to think creatively and swiftly.

Don’t allow her to dictate the countries mood.

So why is he in favour of an indicative vote?

Because literally nothing makes sense anymore.

I'm watching long term weather forecasts with an increasing level of [confusion]
There are some indicators that in January we could see things turning much colder and snowy. If the indicators are correct I can quite easily see a period of weather disruption in Jan/Feb. If this occurs, it won't be very helpful for planners.

The idea of a non written constitution based on the good will of politicians only works when said politicians keep their values. Which is nit what has been happening in the last 2.5 years.

@KennDodd is that this one?

And thanks to the white oaperbin immigration been presented this week, we are starting again on all the full on xenophobia.
Not so surprising form Aaron Banks (apparently all eu citizens are low wages and don’t pay any taxes )
But much more of a problem when it’s the PM herself....

I’m bracing myself for more comments along the lines of ‘citizen of nowhere’ and ‘people who have chosen not to get the british citizenship are not second class citizens. They are non citizens’..... as well as the usual inference that they are all tugs, wife beaters etc..l (all said in the HoC too)

That petition is hilarious. Other countries don't get to have sovereignty (and the brexiters are endlessly surprised when foreigners assert their sovereignty).

I'd bet on a good proportion of those 250k "people" not actually being people at all.

Those who think it is just a game of chicken
and that it is as simple as we are being bullied into the WA are being naive, imo.

It's not that simple.
We need also to decide the relative dangers of No Deal after both Revoke and the WA.

Just as the WA isn't the end:
i.e. the govt could theorectically abandon NI and have a hard Brexit.

Coming from a Tory family who are still party members, I think this is politically impossible for Tories and there are many Brexiters like Gove who care deeply about keeping NI;

i accept others here disagree, but it certainly untrue to say the WA inevitably means No Deal
It could also mean SM+CU+ most other EU benefits

So too, Revoke is not the end:
Even before the ECJ decision, I was worried that if the UK could revoke unilaterally, then it would revoke & invoke to try to get a better deal.

In fact, as soon as the ECJ decision was announced, Brexiters immediately seized on it as a way out and recommended the Uk revoke and immediately invoke again.

Several prominant Leavers have since also suggested this

• in fact I think this is why some devious Leavers, especially in the HoC, think the WA is worse than Remain.

We've even seen our own howabout recommend this !

It is another reason imo why the ERG was so desperate after the ECJ decision to topple May:
they wanted an ERG PM who would do this.

The obvious danger that Leavers don't see, is that the EU won't give cake this time either.
They'll be totally pissed off; they'll just sit on the WA and say it's this or nothing.
They might not even offer the 3rd pillar SM+CU again.

The govt would not want to be humiliated into a Revoke a 2nd time - and maybe neither would the HoC and public opinion.
So, the 2nd time round I see the danger of No Deal as even higher than now.

I also now feel more loyalty to the EU than the UK.
The real danger of the UK invoking again means the EU have to keep training all those 1000s of new customs officials and building infrastructure for the contingency.

There will be great resentment of the UK and far less chance of them accepting a future A49 to Rejoin
So, Revoke & Invoke would poison the well.

100 Days Until Brexit: The Government's ‘To-Do List’ Exposes The Potential Chaos Ahead

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/100-days-until-brexit_uk_5c18c961e4b08db990574b88

The army’s role
The armed forces have been put on standby to assist ministers in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit.
The revelation, which came on Wednesday, followed HuffPost UK’s report that senior military officers had been drafted in to help Whitehall prepare.
It follows further reports that police forces were planning to draft in the army to help them deal with civil unrest in the event Britain crashes out of the EU.

Now I know that on the Westminister threads, the fact a No Deal would lead to total chaos and civil unrest is something we knew. It’s something else to see it written in black and white in a mainstream paper or to see a minister acknowledging this will happen.

The U.K. is currently contemplating suicide.....

The HoC may eventually Revoke, just as May might

The problems with expecting the HoC to Revoke:

1. The HoC have so far shown no indication of large numbers coming out, even against No Deal, let alone for Revoke

With the DUP and several Labour members (+ 1 LDem) opposing, it would need a significant number of Tory MPs to vote against the govt.

With the batshit Brexiter party membership, this would mean most potential Tory rebels would be warned in advance that they would be deselected

And would Corbyn and his cabal even support Revoke, or just abstain ?

2. Can the HoC legally force a Revoke and how ?

The govt said the HoC can, but did they mean "Political Reality" - which can change - or legally - and they were wrong before, legally, about how the ECJ would decide

That ECJ decision also changed the basis of the Gina Miller victory, which was based on the loss of UK citizens's rights being permanent - it isn't

I have read differing legal opinions on the right to Revoke. It's not clear.

Jo Maugham has another case in Scotland to find out how to Revoke.
The govt are expected to appeal if he wins.

==> Will MPs learn in time HOW they can Revoke in time to organise cross-party agreement to do so - if there even is a majority to do so ?

Revoking with the intention of invoking again is absolutely awful, our reputation is already trashed, that would shut the door on any and all future options as we'd be the country willing to waste billions of pounds of our own and other countries money in order to pander to the extreme ends of the political scale.

That leavers would suggest this as a plan to buy us more time says everything we need to know about how well prepared they are for no deal. If it was all sunshine and rainbows on wto and out on our own, they'd just wait for the clock to tick down and vote against the wa.

This whole bloody mess is ridiculous, David Cameron should never have been allowed to step down after the referendum. His mess should be his to solve, spineless prick.

A PP suggested revoking at the same time as launching massive investment campaigns across the UK, and then never mentioning the brexit situation again, I wish we had a pm who would actually consider something in the nations interest. This whole thing has torn the public apart and I don't see how it can get any better with the tories in charge

EtVoila We also know of Carney's warnings about GDP, house prices etc.
That GDP would not recover to current levels before 2024, if then

I fear there could be permanent damage even after 2024 - not just a reduction in GDP growth as for a soft Brexit -
but possibly the economy never recovering and the UK continuing to slide, with Sterling no longer being a reserve currency

I think that what we need to is to sign the WA and then have a complete reshuffle of the political system.
we need a new leader for the Labour Party (because he is certainly one of the BIG reasons why the whole system has collapsed woman opposition worth its name) and a proper leader for the Conservative (TM has no backing at all bar the fact having to find a new leader just now would be a nightmare)

Actually maybe just having a new leader for the Labour party would help. Preferably one that support Remain so that both sides of the agenda are représentated.

I would LOVE a Revoke with promises to rebuild the UK as a fairer society
AND to finally become an whole-hearted member of the EU, no more whingeing & hate

Very interesting catching up on all last night's posts. All arguing about the end point arising from the Backstop and clearly demonstrating that the WA resolves absolutely nothing while significantly reducing the UK's negotiating and ongoing relationship with the EU.

Either Remain or No Deal are better options than a decade of rancour surely?

BCG yes I agree there is a huge risk there.
The problem is that the situation is so complex that actually trying to guess what the consequences will be are hard.

What I am REALLY worried about is that a lot of the things we have talked about in the last two years have become reality. Some of my own evaluations re immigrations just aftervthe vote are now becoming reality.
So if our collective guesses are actually quite close to the mark, then the U.K. is in a real danger zone. One where the history of Argentina could repeat itself :(

@howabout - surely the Withdrawal Agreement is better than No Deal. I would happily put up with a decade of grumbling over actual food shortages any day.

I would LOVE a Revoke with promises to rebuild the UK as a fairer society AND to finally become an whole-hearted member of the EU, no more whingeing & hate

That, unfortunately, looks like it’s believing in fairies and unicorns :(
I mean I’d love that to happen but I can’t see how it could in a society that is so divided and entrenched.

Parliament begins to eat itself

'We’ve reached the point where only four diagnoses are now left. The prime minister is in a delusional, psychotic state and is in urgent need of help. Or the prime minister is focused purely on her own short-term survival: even she can’t be so far gone as to believe she has a long-term future. Or the prime minister is a sleeper agent for a hostile government committed to the destruction of the UK. Or the prime minister is totally incompetent.'

howabout the WA allows us TIME. Time to decide which way we actually want to go. And how to do it. And maybe, aybe, the time to reinvent ourselves and find a DIFFERENT way to relate to the EU and do Brexit. (Remembering that on the ballot paper, brexit wasn’t a NoDeal. EVERYONE thought brexit meantba deal of some sort)

The WA is not the end agreement, only the start. I think we should see that as an opportunity rather than a reason to grumble again.
Moaning wo ever going to see the person you have a problem with seems to be a very british attitude. But in that case, it’s a massive hindrance. Our politicians need to stop moaning and start doing and thinking sideways.

howabout do you not think rancour will reign if we crash out without a deal and all those people struggling to make ends meet suddenly find themselves with no jobs, no welfare options and the amazing sovereignty promised by the leave campaigners used to do nothing other than widen the gap between the rich and poor?

Remaining, with the intention of addressing the issues so many have would surely cause the least damage to the UK as a whole? If no deal goes ahead then are we not likely to find ourselves losing NI and Scotland?

Whatever happens, this has already caused years of rancour. The UK has nothing unique to offer that can't be offered elsewhere within the EU, and in fact the UK jumping off a cliff will create opportunities for our EU friends. Once we are out, the damage is done. We are already slipping down the ladder, crashing out of the EU only to realise the problems we had were the making of our own elected politicians.. I believe that would be the cause of rancour for decades.

@AnnieKenney or the PM is running down the clock playing chicken with the threat of Revoke or No Deal to get enough people on her side to pass WA in January.

Both Remain and No Deal would themselves lead to decades of rancour. The decades of rancour button has already been pressed.
However the WA would at least stop most on either side saying “you lost, suck it up” for those decades, perpetually exacerbating the situation. So for me WA wins.

PMK