Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

I will probably die of starvation and lack of medication. At least I won't have to commit suicide!

The govt cannot just leave NI in the backstop, because the backstop covers GB as well

The government’s own legal advice warned that if negotiations broke down then the UK would be able to withdraw from the CU arrangements, but Northern Ireland would be left in it- effectively splitting it from the rest of the country.

The DUP objected to this because it proved that NI would be “be in full EU CU while GB is not”.

In practice it would be almost impossible to leave without an agreement.

But it would be possible to agree an FTA that leaves NI in the backstop.

Paragraph 26: “the GB elements of the customs union should fall away, leaving only NI in the EU customs territory as the minimum”.

mother
Full WA
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/37095/draftwithdrawallagreementincllart132.pdf

Since this is horrendously difficult to find the exact pages, the EU also published short summaries:
_
Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland:_
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseMEMO-18-64233_33_en.htm

What is the “Single Customs Territory”?
The EU and the UK have today agreed that a single EU-UK customs territory will apply from the end of the transition period until such a time as a subsequent agreement becomes applicable.
....
What “level playing field” measures have been agreed?
The UK has committed to a level playing field based on open and fair competition between the EU and the UK
....
The Protocol binds the UK to substantive rules, based on international and EU standards.
Apart from competition rules, it is based on the principle of non-regression from the current levels of protection under international and EU standards.
...
These are detailed in the WA, basically copies of most SM rules except FOM apply to GB
also see these sections which apply to the whole UK:

Environment
Labour and Social Protection

I’m off to bed.

The WA is a great way to get the UK gov to grow up and do some proper negotiating and in the meantime it stops unnecessary deaths while the UK gov bugger about. Of course if the UK gov WANT to keep messing about most of the control goes to the EU.
The EU is taking responsibility for NI's welfare (at least the border issue) and of course that irks the UK because they want control.
If the UK wants control, bloody well get on with it!

Tatiana GB can only withdraw from the backstop if it cuts off NI, by putting full checks on goods from GB to NI

i.e. impossible, for a Tory govt at least

Also, this govt needs DUP support and wishes to run until the planned transition period ends and hold the GE in 2022.
If it tried to cut off NI, the DUP would bring it down and force a GE

So, the backstop remains for the whole UK
NI remins in the SM
and GB has to obey most SM rules except FOM

I’m actually now in bed and this is ridiculous

The Tories don’t give a toss about the DUP I’d have thought that was clear. It’s because NI can be ditched in the CU with the EU and cut off from the rest of the U.K. with customs checks between them that the DUP are so opposed to this WA.

The DUP are only needed until the next election.

I do have to go to sleep as it’s nearly 12. 😴

N’night.

Ah, that's where I disagree:
The Tories can't & won't ditch NI.... although Labour could

The Brexiter Ultras are particularly Unionist, hence see the WA as trapping the UK in the same rules forever

• they wouldn't worry if it's just a temporary situation, because they always agreed to EU rules for transition

I've read several prominant Brexiters refer to the WA as BRINO or Remain-

BBC Radio 4 Todayy@BBCr4today*

Former Brexit Secretary @DominicRaab
says Theresa May's proposed EU deal would be worse than staying in the EU on current terms.
"We'd effectively be bound by the same rules but without the control or voice over them" #r4today

mother Since I don't believe the Tories would ever cut off NI,
i think they would have to keep the whole UK in the backstop

Just noticed the mirror online is talking about the government’s ‘106 Doomsday plans’. Doomsday. So, we could prevent Doomsday but instead we’re determined to deliver Doomsday.
After all Doomsday is the will of the people.

Tatiana I agree re the WA - UK only protected right now by the backstop. WA is not a deal, it's a withdrawal agreement. Bigchoc, I can't see anything to prevent JRM et al ruining the country if there is a border in the Irish Sea. If Unionists aren't propping up Tories that might be quite acceptable. So protection might be gone in your next GE.

Hence my earlier post today. I think no deal might shock the nation sufficiently to rejoin. Otherwise you are at risk of losing everything slowly.

If Rees Mogg is happy I am very suspicious.

Did anyone watch Newsnight? One of the political commentators was saying that this is reminiscent of 1914 and described TM as being ‘on a train track’ is having a kind of tunnel vision which is how I have heard LDs who were in the coalition talk about her regarding her obsession with immigration.
Emily Maitliss was actually rendered speechless at one point and was reduced to just shaking her head with a ‘WTF?’ expression.
Where have all the Leavers gone? I thought they would have been celebrating as this is exactly what they voted for

I honestly don't believe for a second that NI not having regulatory alignment with the UK would keep Rees Mogg awake at night.

And NI may leave the UK any time. Possibly not for 20 years, or 50, or ever, but possibly sooner.

I think this is wrong. It’s not the responsibility of the EU to do that ‘ let’s not forget that NI is part of the UK. I think the EU have every right to look after the interests of Ireland but not NI.

Mother under the GFA people in NI can identify as Irish and/or British so there are lots of Irish citizens in NI. I trust the EU to look out for them far more than I trust the British government, especially this particular British government.

Since I don't believe the Tories would ever cut off NI,
i think they would have to keep the whole UK in the backstop

This is very naive. The backstop is only an issue because of the DUP and because it's a handy excuse to refuse to support the WA.

A Tory government with a majority wouldn't be squeamish about NI. Look at the present and previous NI secretaries, and tell me this is a party that is profoundly concerned about NI. The current NI secretary knew less about NI than my children when she took her post.

I agree about the NI SoS Mistigri but seriously, who have they got to put in ministerial posts who knows anything about anything? Government of all the talentless doesn't get anywhere near it.

I agree about the NI SoS Mistigri but seriously, who have they got to put in ministerial posts who knows anything about anything? Government of all the talentless doesn't get anywhere near it.

There are competent people, they are just on the back benches. It's a choice to put hopeless cases with a 2 figure IQ in ministerial positions. It's a particularly bad choice when the ministry in question deals with NI.

Talking of potentially competent people what do we think of Education Secretary Damian Hinds? He's weird- he professed to be a remainer? But his voting record shows he generally voted against UK membership of the EU, Generally voted against a right to remain for EU nationals already in living in the UK.He voted for gay tights but against laws to promote equality and human rights

On the one hand he suggested backing a non binding indicative Commons votes on different Brexit options. I think knowing where all MPs really stand now is a good idea. However what's to stop non achievable unicorn options still being on the list?

On the other isn't it insanity having a vote hoping that there'll be some new Plan B revealed that could command a majority when it's not been thought of yet.

Actually I just looked st his full voting record - he's rubbish. Consistently voted against increasing the tax rate applied to income over £150,000 but in favour of reducing welfare.

So why is he in favour of an indicative vote?

Where have all the Leavers gone? I thought they would have been celebrating as this is exactly what they voted for

They're on the BBC news website comments section celebrating also there's a petition with 220,000+ signatures demanding 'no deal'.