For those who say no deal is Project Fear, why?

[Deadsouls]

Just listening to radio 4 and A Tory minister (didn't catch name), said no deal would be 'difficult' but not a catastrophe as some have predicted. He was saying that it was nonsense and project fear to say it would disastrous for the UK.
But, the conflict of opinion is so confusing. Disaster/not a disaster, project fear/project reality.

So my question is to ppl who advocate no deal, why would it be better than deal or no Brexit?

Because saying 'Project fear' prevents further debate. Its an old but useful trick if your arguments don't stand up to scrutiny.

Because the Tory Minister is almost certainly one who is wealthy, so will be insulated from the worst effects, and equally almost certainly doesn't know much of the UK beyond wealthy parts of S E England.

However, an admission of 'difficult' is at least a shift in position - it was all going to be 'easiest deals in history', 'they need us more than we need them', etc..

I'm really trying to understand why no deal is better than any other option because I don't get it

I don't think you are supposed to 'get it' , you are just supposed to agree with 'it' .

Or to put it another way:

What can the UK do better outside of the EU (in terms of trade, immigration) etc, that it can't do in the EU?

Has to be more convincing than, 'it'll be difficult but we'll manage', which IMO sounds a bit vague

I presume you are hoping that there will be Leavers on here who can give you factual answers backed up by evidence ? I suspect you will get the same tired rhetoric and the old Brexit chestnut 'no one knows what's going to happen'

{What can the UK do better outside of the EU (in terms of trade, immigration) etc, that it can't do in the EU?}
One of the few things that the UK can do above anyone else is some 'cutesie' holiday destinations for wealthy Chinese and maybe Russians.
Stuff like Welsh dolls, specialty foods, Devon cream teas, early industrial revolution theme parks {Morwellam Quay is very good, as is Beamish}.
Tiptree jam of course.

Theresa May’s entire plan hinges on fear of a no deal scenario (which would be bad for the UK and the EU). There will be no extensions given or requested as she wants this fear of crashing out in a few months time to remain. At the eleventh hour a choice between her deal or no deal will be a lot harder for the opposition and her critics to reject.

So no it’s not project fear, it will be shit but let’s accept that talking up the pain of no deal is beneficial to the government (well, some if it).

If we have no deal, there'll have to be a hard border in Ireland. That's against the legally binding GFA- so I don't understand why some people think that's better than May's backstop- or am I missing something?

Those who embrace 'No Deal' seem to be saying that it will be Short Term Pain before enormous long term Gains. They don't explain a clear path how this will happen, they have a lot of faith in business innovations to find success, somehow. Else the leadership of a 'True Believer' will make Brexit a success too, and is only reason we are in mess we are now. To me, looks like the No Deal proponents think in very short term timescales.

Example, Often to soften the transition Brexiters declare we should have zero tariffs on imports. Zero tariffs on imports could lead to floods of cheap goods which consumers would like.

(Project Fear Reality counter-argument )... zero tariffs will destroy domestic producers who can't price-match. Zero tariffs won't be reciprocated; no country in the world will offer them in return. Zero tariffs removes a bargaining chip in trade negotiations; we can't offer to lower zero tariffs to incentivise a trade deal.

To understand the no deal politicians I think you have to look where their money is.
Is it dependent on manufacturing or investment within the Uk?
Or is it stashed in an offshore hedge fund and/or they are independently wealthy?

There are 2 sorts of 'no deal' voters' Some, like the ERG know full wekk that it will be disastrous but have put plans in place so they will gain a heck of a lot of money (disaster capitalism). JRM's father wrote a book about it. They don't particularly care what happens with the GFA.
The second group simply haven't thought through all the negative things that will happen. Of course no one can say reliably HOW bad it will really be, and it will take a while to unfold but NO ONE else says it will be 'good'. Having seen some of the inane questions put in the HoC in recent weeks it seems most of them have no real clue and probably believe that bad things can't happen.

Yep, for them it's all about avoiding the soon to be implemented EU tax laws. They DO.NOT.CARE. about you/us.

Can I urge everyone to take a look at the Prepper topic. There's no panic and nonsense on there. Just sensible budget friendly advice. You don't have to be a prepper to get some resilience into your pantry. There is no club. There is no checking. Just do what works for you and your budget.

In terms of industry, the UK was producing less than half of what Germany does (although did more in the finance sector).
When the UK leaves, a significant amount of the 'foreign' owned companies will wind down and close over a few years, or just close.
This means the UK will have to replace those before getting anywhere near where we are now. Travelling from Birmingham to Manchester, but starting off by going down to London.

'Short Term Pain' seems to have taken on the significance of a small headache; something that can be survived and then life returns to normal.

The government's own assessments describe something completely different. No Deal really does mean;

• No food in the shops
• No medicines and medical supplies
• Emergencies-only NHS service
• Closure of care homes as EU staff leave
• No flights
• Over 3 million EU citizens in the UK lose their right to be in the UK
• Factory closures for lack of materials and parts
• and much more.

All of the 750 Agreements that the UK has with the rest of the world and the EU cease to be valid on 29th March.

The resulting chaos will lead to a State of Emergency - probably by Easter 2019 but possibly sooner. Troops on the streets to deal with the transport chaos; Airlift of medicines; Police guarding shops to prevent looting; ATMs out of service; Internet and mobile networks locked down and so on.

Leaving the EU might lead to a brighter future for the UK - but nobody quite knows when or how and Rees-Mogg thinks it might take 50 years. In the meantime, the UK won't survive 50 days without major intervention in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Which book by WRM would you recommend, LeClerc? Are they all obscure or is any of them accessible to lay people? They sound like type of books Ayn Rand would have written:

Blood in the Streets: Investment Profits in a World Gone Mad

The Great Reckoning : How the World Will Change Before the Year 2000

The Sovereign Individual: The Coming Economic Revolution : how to Survive and Prosper in it

YeOldeTrout
Sorry I haven't read any of them, I was referring it to others who mentioned it.
My current concern is the violence and tension in France happening now (as I live there). Fortunately where I am the protestors are standing around drinking tea and making their point, unlike the real unrest in Paris and several other major cities and towns.

At least here the protestors are not stupid enough to set their own cars and houses on fire.

Can tell you why no-deal will be difficult for UK if that's your question and why R4 speaker/minister/parliamentarian is wrong?

No-deal means UK treated as 3rd country from 29/3/19 by EU; all exports (inc. food/medicine) from UK->EU will be subject to additional inspections, safety testing etc ... resulting in significant transport delays/additional costs for UK exporters. UK should also treat EU imports in same manner (but probably won't to avoid adding to disruption). Much of UK manufacturing industry is integrated into wider set of EU-based JIT supply chains and consequently will be severely impacted. EU will be forced to have physical border from UK-NI->IE thereby forcing Ireland to break the terms of the GFA . UK will lose access to existing trade-deals with non-EU countries as these deals were established while UK was member of EU - these countries may well apply additional border checks/WTO tarriffs on UK exports. UK will lose membership of a number of international governance organisations (e.g. European Aviation Safety Agency) which facilitate/govern a variety of international interactions (e.g. international aviation services) - without a deal there's a risk of interruption in these areas. The UK government and economy is not prepared for no-deal or even nearly-no-deal - suggesting it will be "difficult" is an understatement.

Havana - you really have been sucked in haven't you !
Why would our agreement to the EU citizens in the UK be nil and void?
Arrangements are already underway to resolve the flights problem.
Contingencies are being made for medications.

Every single thing we eat doesn't come from the EU and in any case only 4% of goods coming into our ports from out with the EU are checked and even then not at the border. So why should their be chaos at the border ports and no food on the shelves?

State of emergency and troops on the streets! Give me strength.

@Doubletrouble99 - if our ports are clogged up, how do you expect the other Non-EU stuff to come in?
Every deal we've made as a country with Non-EU countries is predicated on (including the actual words in the agreements) on us being in the EU.

Because the Tory Minister is almost certainly one who is wealthy, so will be insulated from the worst effects, and equally almost certainly doesn't know much of the UK beyond wealthy parts of S E England.

But EXACTLY the same applies for staying in the EU and the worsening long term social and economic impact on rural and provincial communities, which is why blue collar, working class people pretty much unanimously voted for Brexit and liberal, middle class professional types in London still don't get it.

Bad news @ElsieCat blue collar (patronising term) working class people voted Remain. You can't make it a "class " thing.