For those who say no deal is Project Fear, why?

[Deadsouls]

Just listening to radio 4 and A Tory minister (didn't catch name), said no deal would be 'difficult' but not a catastrophe as some have predicted. He was saying that it was nonsense and project fear to say it would disastrous for the UK.
But, the conflict of opinion is so confusing. Disaster/not a disaster, project fear/project reality.

So my question is to ppl who advocate no deal, why would it be better than deal or no Brexit?

@abra1de

I’m not an expert, but as I understand it currently - I believe the problem is about collecting tax.

If we left with no deal, the idea is to trade under WTO rules.

That involves collecting tariffs at borders, which would have to involve physical infrastructure (we don’t have tech in place to do it electronically). Hence the hard border.

We could choose not to collect tariffs on goods crossing the Northern Ireland border, but unfortunately, that contravenes WTO rules.

They state that if you reduce tariffs for one trading partner, you have to reduce tariffs for all trading partners. So, it we did that, we’d have to stop collecting tariffs at all for imported goods from anywhere in the world.

The only way out of that, under WTO rules, is if you’re part of a free trade area (but of course, we won’t be).

The hard Brexit “no deal” supporters say there is a technological solution to this problem that wouldn’t require any hard infrastructure, but haven’t ever presented that solution. The upshot is that nobody has any idea if their solution feasible (or even if it exists).

Legally, it seems that we’d have a bunch of contradictory obligations that we’d be unable to square.

As I said, I’m not an expert. I’m happy to be corrected on anything I’ve got wrong.

Thank you!

Jm90914. This might be helpful

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

PS, here's an explanation of why MFN is awful for the UK. twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1073221535979061249?s=19

If the UK chooses not impose any tariffs on goods coming across the border on the Island of Ireland… that would mean that the UK is giving the EU (because Ireland is the EU in this context) complete open access.

So its most favoured nation tariff is zero. That means it would have to give a zero tariff access to every single country in the WTO.”

In essence you would need a hard border in the event of a no deal.

Doubletree tried to argue that NZ's experience following the UK's entry into the Common Market is a good example of how the UK will prosper following Brexit.

I agree that it is a good example for the UK to look at - but for the opposite reason that it demonstrates how fucking stupid what the UK is doing is

I was living in NZ in the mid 70s. I remember the Kiwis complaining bitterly about the damage the UK's entry into the Common Market was going to their dairy industry, despite the transition arrangements.

We had NZ friends from that time staying with us this summer. They were dairy farmers, so I asked about what they thought about what was going on, with particular reference to the dairy industry and the Common Market.

They said that the diminution of the importance of the UK market was the best thing that had happened to the NZ dairy industry

Not only because they had to modernise, become more efficient and diversify but - and more importantly - because they then had to concentrate on developing their markets closer to home - in particular Japan and China.

They think the UK is nuts turning its back on its closest market.

NZ is not really interested in making special deals with the UK. It has no special loyalty to the UK. Markets closer to home are easier to develop.

Prettybirds example is good in that it highlights a need to trade with people close to home for environmental reasons as much as anything, but also that markets have evolved massively since the perceived 'heyday'.
The rest of the world has caught up and is overtaking the UK market for many things. Arguably 'finance' can be anywhere that has a good internet connection. Innovation is what the UK has been good at but this more recently is working collaboratively with others as new 'stuff' usually needs lots of finance and diverse ideas.

The point I am trying to make about New Zealand is that this made them modernise and reinvent themselves and we need to do the same. There are mechanised systems for picking and planting coming on stream all the time reducing the need for so many unskilled workers for the EU or elsewhere.
I would never suggest that we need to be self sufficient in food but manufactures do need to rethink how they source ingredients. They certainly don't need to rely on cheese from Ireland or bacon from Denmark. There is no reason why these things can't be sourced from within the UK.

With regard to aviation, I can see absolutely no mention anywhere in the commission's statement them saying it won't work or that they are not going to do things. Any aviation company is going to adapt to what ever the new regulations say and have contingencies in place. remember this is a two way street.
As for the port of Dover - there are other ports that's the point. It's been far too easy to rely on sending trucks through Dover and not think of an alternative. Felixstowe is very well equipped to deal with much more freight from the EU. Rotterdam is already gearing up to ship more to us from their port. Hauliers and customers will have to rethink how they are transporting goods. Not everything that comes through Dover is so fresh that it will spoil for the sake of an hour or two extra on the journey.
The other day the 11th largest containership in the world docked at Felixstowe - it has a capacity of over 18,000 containers, it was full of non EU goods from Sri Lanka. Containers were on the road within the hour.
There is a tried and tested system called Destin8 which is used for non EU goods into Felixstowe. HMRC track the goods electronically. This can obviously be used for our imports and exports to the EU too and for the Irish border. So it's completely wrong to suggest that there is no system up and running for this to work.

While the point about New Zealand is interesting you are omitting the rather important fact that it happened the best part of 40 years ago and the world has changed radically since then.
Aviation will of course be sorted out, but depending on the nature of the UK leaving there could well be a gap of many months while all new arrangements are made. The WA does at least let it transition gently.
Changing the food industry, yes of course possible, just throw a few billion at the problem, but again it won't happen overnight. The fact the UK government have said they will only subsidise the farmers to cover the existing subsidies until the end of the transition period suggests there may be some fighting to do there to maintain, let along reconfigure farming.
Reconfiguring ports, again, not happening any time soon, so mind the gap. Major building projects would be measured in years.
The HMRC customs computer system is unable to handle the projected increase in data throughput. It is working on it and it might be working in about a year's time if it is truly a 'unicorn' system that actually works. Government computer projects don't have a good track record of successes.

At this point I think Doubletree is being deliberately obtuse.

You can't send time-sensitive goods via a container port, that's not how it works. And Dover and Folkestone are used for a reason, not at random. They offer the fastest transit times. The exact same reason as most urgent Irish freight uses Holyhead-Dublin.

And yes, customs clearances are almost entirely done electronically but there's no system which tracks goods ON VEHICLES. Goods in a container or unaccompanied on RO-RO ships are under the control of the ports or the shipping lines for their entire journey. They sit at the port until they've cleared customs. The ports have space to do this and (in theory) they know exactly where each container is at any time. It doesn't work for trucks and vans.

So it's completely wrong to suggest that there is no system up and running for this to work.

And of course, you are forgetting that if we are trading under WTO rules imports and exports are probably going to start to drop off pretty soon as we become increasingly uncompetitive so fewer lorries moving in and out - win win!

And as for NZ, there's no way they can ever be an integral part of a huge trading community situated an hour from their borders. If there was one there then they'd be falling over themselves to be part of it.

Yes Double 99 its good to be positive but i do not remember Leave publicising all these issues that needed to be solved back in 2016, new ways to import food/Goods, new farming methods, in fact rather the opposite!

You people conned the electorate didn't you?

Obtuse and ignorant. Felixstowe could cope with some more freight, but there isn't the infrastructure to cope with the added customs delays that an inevitable consequence of a No Deal. The A14 can certainly not handle being a lorry park in the way the M20 and M26 are planned to be.
Typical Quitling ignorance.

So much focus on how awful it would be if Brexit went ahead and we left the EU but has anyone actually considered the consequences of remaining? These haven’t exactly been well publicised. Our pm is a remainer and I don’t actually believe for a second that she wanted us out which is why we have ended up with such a crap deal in the first place.

@Anothermothersusername
Almost half of the vote was from people who had considered what remain meant. Continued presence in our largest market, top seat at the table, hundreds of trade deals etc etc etc

which is why we have ended up with such a crap deal in the first place

We have a crap deal because it's not possible for us to both detach from the EU customs union and to honour the Good Friday Agreement. We have to pick one. It's boggling that some leave supporters still don't seem to get this yet.

It's boggling that some leave supporters still don't seem to get this yet.

Exactly! Have you not asked yourself why NOBODY either Farage and his friends before the referendum or the Brexiteers afterwards have come up with anything practical that would a) actually be legal and b) not involve the use of technology which has yet to be invented?

You could try and explain the GFA and why this crap deal is May's only option till you're blue in the face but some people just don't understand. This is all May's doing, she boxed herself in with her red lines and triggering A50 when she did. Future generations will study it for its abject failure and governmental ignorance.

"There is no reason why these things can't be sourced from within the UK. "
Lovely @Doubletrouble99 , and while we are waiting for all these businesses to start up using a magic money tree (yes, I said it), what are we going to do for food?

I agree that Doubletree is being deliberately obtuse: having been told that NZ's success post the UK's accession to the EC, he/she almost deliberately ignores the point that they adapted by concentrating on and adapting to markets that are geographically closer to them - on contrast to the UK which is choosing to piss off its closest markets and make doing business with them more difficult

There is no point in developing new ports and procedures if you have alienated yourself from those closer markets.

No flights out after 29.3.19 (Today's SundayThe Times)

Kent county Council's brexit planning.

implications include:

• increased from 3 to 6 months disruption

-disruption to food and medicine supply -road closures -emergency powers -schools, social services compromised

• more migrants

democracy.kent.gov.uk/documents/s88112/Item%207%20-%20Brexit.pdf

Maybe KCC's open approach to planning for this is to provide indemnity when the obvious happens.

What the Fuck, indeed

Jesus wept. The "we'll be fine on WTO rules" crowd need to watch that!