For those who say no deal is Project Fear, why?

[Deadsouls]

Just listening to radio 4 and A Tory minister (didn't catch name), said no deal would be 'difficult' but not a catastrophe as some have predicted. He was saying that it was nonsense and project fear to say it would disastrous for the UK.
But, the conflict of opinion is so confusing. Disaster/not a disaster, project fear/project reality.

So my question is to ppl who advocate no deal, why would it be better than deal or no Brexit?

which is why blue collar, working class people pretty much unanimously voted for Brexit ....

Are you trying to tell me that cities like Liverpool don't have a fair number of blue collar, working class people? Or are you trying to say that comfortably off Tories in the shires are all liberal? You can't know either group, if that's the case.

Why would our agreement to the EU citizens in the UK be nil and void?

Why do you trust the current Government having seen how they behaved over the Windrush generation?

Really ElsieCat and you know this how? Understanding is that the main correlates with voting leave were education, age and identifying as having English identity (see [[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028]]). Where is the evidence that the referendum vote was driven by class?

Truth is that no-one knows for sure what will happen.

But it's a reasonable assumption that goods and services we usually get from EU countries will be unavailable/more expensive at least initially, that myriads of little agreements e.g. flying over or into EU countries will be unclear, that sharing terrorist/criminal info won't happen and that some small businesses who rely on selling goods/services to EU customers will go bust.

Because so much is unclear and unknown, confidence in the economy is already falling.

No-one is completely immune to the impact, but it is the poorer people, especially those working for small businesses who will be hit worst.

State of emergency and troops on the streets! Give me strength.

Why have the government and local authorities put plans in place, meeting with military chiefs etc ? Please confirm whether you believe the reports of the steps set out in the attached links Doubletrouble.

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-deal-brexit-military-drafted-in-to-help-government-planningukk_5c1287bde4b0835fe327b461

democracy.kent.gov.uk/documents/s88112/Item%207%20-%20Brexit.pdf

I don't think we can make any assuptions about who voted for Brexit. I know many middle class, well educated, well off people who did, and many working class, not well off people who voted to remain. The great tragedy of it is that there was no one group and no single opinion about why people voted for Brexit.

This is why it's been so difficult for anyone to define exactly what an acceptable Brexit looks like. Lots of people are saying that it is obvious, but it really isn't. Ask 100 different people why they voted for Brexit and you'll get 100 different opinions.

@Doubletrouble99

Why would our agreement to the EU citizens in the UK be nil and void?

Because there is no 'agreement' - although there is a Policy Paper, which is a proposal, not something that is enshrined in law yet. If there is No Deal, then as Mrs May reminds us, Brexit means Brexit and the rights of the EU citizens are lost, as are the rights of the UK citizens in the EU.

Arrangements are already underway to resolve the flights problem.

Arrangements are underway, but not actually in place. Just like the Withdrawal Agreement.

Contingencies are being made for medications.

The plans are for emergency medicines and medical devices only - not for the entire 37 million packets of drugs imported each month from the EU. No military airlift is going to adequately replace the well-oiled system that has developed over the last 40 years and which ends on 29th March.

If No Deal does not have the potential to be a total catastrophe, why is the UK even contemplating 'contingencies' and why are the military being asked to draw up emergency plans?

Every single thing we eat doesn't come from the EU
True, just about 50%. Not just finished products though - also ingredients. Although the UK can provide pizza-makers with flour, the cheese topping comes from Ireland, the meat from Denmark, the tomatoes from Italy and the mushrooms from Holland.

and in any case only 4% of goods coming into our ports from out with the EU are checked and even then not at the border

This 4% figure includes bulk products like coal, oil and fertilisers, so huge in volume but not particularly anything that needs immediate customs control.

So why should their be chaos at the border ports and no food on the shelves?

Because the capacity of the ports will be reduced by the requirement to inspect goods and papers. Estimates range from a 30% to 80% reduction in capacity - instead of 10,000 trucks a day passing through the ports, as few as 2,000 might get through. Instead of 100 truck-loads of fresh vegetables getting through, only 20 get through; so instead of your local Tesco having 1,000 packs of veg, there are only 200 for customers to fight over.

@Doubletrouble99 why don't you apply for one of the jobs being set up as part of the government's no deal preparations. You'd have nothing to do, you could just kick back and watch a box set because nothing will be happening and you'll be getting paid. Happy Days, eh?

Love the way that people think Fox, Davis, Johnson, Redwood, Farage, IDS etc. are blue collared working class. I doubt if they would know how to change a light bulb, let alone earn a living from manual labour.

Oh, and don't forget to not prepare in any way for any disruption?

No-deal impact assessments from UK government and BoE all predict quite severe impacts under no-deal scenario (8% fall in GDP, 7.5% rise in unemployment - see www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/28/bank-of-england-says-no-deal-brexit-would-be-worse-than-2008-crisis). These can't be dismissed as idle speculation - these provide an indicative view of the scale of the disruption we face.

To illustrate the mechanism by which this GDP collapse will happen; consider the UK auto-industry. UK exports ~80% of cars manufactured (see www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners) and most UK manufacturers are part of EU-based Just In Time supply chains. This means that many components are sent back and forth between EU UK before final assembly. Any delays in this will result in reduced productivity in UK and EU plants as they have to wait for arrival of components in transit or they have to accumulate, store and pay for a larger buffer of components to avoid transit times. This will increase costs and reduce profits of car manufacturers operating in UK. It is likely that without full access to EU Single Market and the frictionless trade this permits, many manufacturers will reduce or cease their UK-based operations. This is all on-top of the explicit import tariffs that EU importers of UK manufactured goods would face.

{let alone earn a living from manual labour.}
They do but it only involves one hand.

Contingency plans are drawn up for quite literally everything so that’s hardly surprising.

It’s a shame people can’t debate things nicely without resorting to snide or utterly ridiculous comments. Oddly enough people bleating that there ‘will be no food on the shelves’ tends to cause a few chuckles to both remainers and leavers alike.

Three days of disruption causes shortages of food on the shelves - as we already see when there are unexpected events such as snow storms or transport strikes.

A situation where 'disruption' becomes the norm will quickly result in problems that no amount of planning and stockpiling will be able to adequately deal with. Consumers are so conditioned to being able to access unlimited food 24 hours a day that they cannot conceive a situation where this might not be possible.

Ok but we are now going from ‘no food’ to ‘shortages of food’ correct?

Every single thing we eat doesn't come from the EU and in any case only 4% of goods coming into our ports from out with the EU are checked and even then not at the border. So why should their be chaos at the border ports and no food on the shelves?

Well you're sort of right - not everything's checked at all. Goods arriving from outside the EU have their customs declarations submitted while they're en route to the port/airport. Any loads requiring physical examination (or just closer scrutiny of documentation) are simply not released until they've cleared all the checks. That only inconveniences the people waiting for those particular imports.

Contrast that with the situation with cross-channel loads. The period between planning a load and it arriving at the port as an import can currently just be a few hours, rather than the days or weeks expected with sea freight from outside the EU. Even if there's time to submit a customs declaration electronically and for it to pass through the system before arrival, the lorry driver has to physically present documentation at the port so that his vehicle and load can be matched up with the customs declaration before either being waved through or stopped for checks.

One ferry is likely to have over 100 lorries and numerous vans on board. If the first driver off the ferry takes 1 minute longer than usual to clear the port then the last driver might take 2 hours longer. There's no extra space at Dover to hold these vehicles in a queue. Ferries will take longer to disembark and eventually outward sailings will be delayed because there's no space to hold the vehicles on arrival, and the ferries are all sat at Dover waiting to disembark anyway.

Ok but we are now going from ‘no food’ to ‘shortages of food’ correct?

Not really. No Deal has the real potential to result in 'no food' unless there is some form of rationing. Otherwise there will be some food for those who can afford it, or who live in areas that are well supplied, but 'no food' for people who cannot afford it, for people in areas that are less accessible, or for people who cannot get to where the food is before it sells out (which could be the housebound or those without transport, but applies equally to people who are at work and cannot get to the shops).

The photo is from Ipswich in 1978 when there were nationwide bread shortages. The length of the shadows suggests that it is very early in the morning and people are already queuing.

From the director general of FDF “We're not going to run out of food if there is no deal“ while acknowledging their would be short term disruption this is miles away from the ‘no food and empty shelves’ rubbish that is being spouted. We produce around 60% of our own food, it’s unlikely we will become the next Yemen any time soon.

We are not going to run out of food but we are going to struggle to get stuff we are used to to the shelves and might well have pockets of empty shelves for a variety of items.
Why do you have to be so confrontational about it. This isn't a personal slur.

Just come back to this thread, thanks for all the replies, need to have a thorough read through.

Just listened to May give a press conference re: recent talks about the deal, but sounds exactly the same ...except with 'further clarification' blah blah

Pointing out when something is untrue is not being confrontational. You can’t have it both ways, if we get to pull leave voters down for some of their admittedly stupid comments then the same goes for remainers.

I'm really trying to understand why no deal is better than any other option because I don't get it
Because it isn't. Project Fear = No Deal None of the Leavers were claiming that no deal was a good idea 2 years ago, this really is desperation talking.

@JustABetterPlayer
There are millions of people who struggle to make ends meet, a falling £ and potential shortages of staple supplies like cereals, meats, fruit and veg (the biggest food types we import) mean rising prices and inflation generally, esp as oil is priced in USD, so transport costs will rise too.

So whilst there will be enough food, it will be more expensive and in shorter supply, this will hit the restaurant trade especially hard.

Of course the no-dealers would say "PF2 the pound wont fall" well, look at what happened to sterling & food price inflation since 2016 and what happens when no-deal is talked up now?

Who is going to pay for increased social & in work benefits which is going to be needed?

@JustABetterPlayer

To be fair, I think most people are talking of “worst case scenarios” rather than absolutes.

The same FDF director you quoted, has also said:

“Chaos would ensue” in a no deal scenario.

And:

“It is only a matter of time before the uncertainty reported by businesses results in an irreversible exit of EU workers from these shores.”

"Without our dedicated and valued workforce we would be unable to feed the nation."

And:

“This notion that Brexit will lead to lower food prices is total tosh,” he says. “Anyone who said that doesn’t understand the food supply chain.”

And:

“The only acceptable outcome is one that delivers: continued tariff-free UK-EU trade in all agrifood and drink products; continued access to EU FTAs (Free Trade Agreement) during and beyond the transition period; as frictionless as possible trade that avoids delays and added costs and no physical border in Ireland where the majority of goods traded are food and drink.”

I mean, even if we don’t run out of food, it doesn’t exactly sound like a brilliant situation, does it...

What I imagine is, under 'mitigated no deal' terms (so some hastily arranged agreements)

There will be food but some foods will be patchy in provision; you'll not be surprised to see empty gaps on supermarket shelves. This can go on for days before restocked.

Ditto with other types of goods. Printer cartridges or spare motor parts or washing machine spares or certain building materials or your favourite shampoo. It will be like 1970s (where I grew up) when it could take weeks & weeks for spare parts to arrive after being ordered. Certainly luxury items will get harder to find.

People dependent on medication & at end of supply, will have to hang around in pharmacy while pharmacist rings up other pharmacies to find some of the drug. This will come to seem normal (lots of grumbling).

Lots more non-EU foreigners coming to UK for skilled jobs. Net immigration will remain stubbornly high.

A trade deal quickly arranged with Australia. Someone remind me what they sell that we want to buy, that is at a good price?

Under harsh no deal terms, big manufs. like Nissan will actually pull out of UK and some communities will be devastated.

I also don't remember any Leaver back in 2016 telling us that we "could" be facing food shortages and price rises, that M-ways turned into car parks and stock piling of meds etc etc etc...

what the xxxx is going on? you'd think we were prepping for war!