Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

Hesta that would be great. But the Tories scrapped bursaries for nursing students.

Everyone goes on about when interest rates were 15%. This was for a very short period and people were still paying out a smaller percentage of their wages on their mortgage than the majority of people in the SE are today due to ridiculous house price inflation

Talkinpeece I think your friends may be expanding the truth

I think your friends may be expanding the truth
Um no. I was there with them.

PCPlumsTruncheon Not ridiculous for those house owners

Hesta
Did you own a house in the 80's ? I did.
The rates were only sky high for short periods of time
www.economicshelp.org/blog/1485/interest-rates/historical-real-interest-rate/
And a 3 bed family home in the south east had cost me £30,000
so all things considered it was fine

House price inflation is nothing to do with the EU
(because it has not happened in EU countries that did not deregulate their mortgage markets)

You’re talking about the 70’s Am I? You just said pre-1992.

Plus what everyone else has said about where nurses came from.

How did this country survive before freedom of movement was introduced just 25 years ago?
How did we get foreign nurses into the county pre 1992? Via secret tunnels?
So you DO want foreign nurses here. You just want to make it more difficult for them.

No I dont want to make it more difficult for foreign nurses to enter the UK, I want to make it easier for nurses from all over the world to come here.
FOM just makes it easier for Europeans.

surferjet
So you want Chinese nurses rather than Portugese.
Why ?
What about care workers?
What about veg pickers?
What about meat cutters?
And how will you persuade them to come when the UK's visa rules make it nigh on impossible?

Talkinpeece I think your friends may be expanding the truth

I too am of that vintage. It was possible to go and sign on as a student in the vacations. They might have found you a job of course, but usually they didn't. Then again places like the Post Office would take you on at Christmas, or Woolworths.

So far it's arrivals from
India and Pakistan replacing EU citizens according to the latest figures. Net migration to the UK from outside the EU has hit its highest level in 14 years . Not sure how many nurses in there but I do know we need them desperately.

You can see how EU arrivals have plummeted and Asian etc have risen in the graph on the Westminsterenders thread.

surferjet

You forget one thing: FOM makes it easier to come and go. It means a more fluid type of immigration with most people in fact not sticking around permanently (some do but definitely not the majority). Yes there are long term residents but really EU migration overall is much more casual in nature. Who do you think will really stay and have most long term impact on infrastructure: a family that's moved from the other side of the world and had to jump through the numerous home office hoops (And finally got settled after all that) or one that can see how it goes for a year or two because there are other options and no bureaucracy to deal with (that's what fom is about)?

Ending FOM will not solve any immigration related issues. It will only make it worse.

Quietrebel

I do understand what you’re saying.

But wanting non-EU nurses over EU nurses completely forgets the fact that FOM is reciprocal! We need nurses, and currently they can come from the EU if they want and work and then we can go and work and study and retire elsewhere in the EU and have reciprocal access to healthcare and benefits and cumulative pensions etc etc. Under Surferjet's logic we still IMPORT the same number of nurses but LOSE all OUR rights at the same time.

I want to make it easier for nurses from all over the world to come here.
That's completely illogical. You want to make it easier for everyone but instead of campaigning for that, you decided the next best thing was to make it difficult for our nearest neighbours. What a horrible dog-in-the-manger attitude.

And I still struggle to believe that most Brexiters REALLY want more immigration from the rest of the world vs Europe so it's "fair". This to me, and I might be controversial here, is the "See, I am not a racist" argument.

TheyBuiltthepyramids

Exactly!

Surferjet
I do understand what you’re saying
So why are Thais better than Greeks ?

Under FOM,
agricultural workers arrive at the start of the season. They live in caravans and work backbreaking hours for several months.
At the end of the season they take their net wages back to southern Europe and recover for a few months till the seasons restart.

After Brexit
they will stay and claim benefits and houses and expect services in the months they are not working.

How is that better for the UK?

So why are Thais better than Greeks ?

Yes I want to know this too.

As I've said before my old neighbour who's anNHS consultant says, quietly, that when she's under pressure on the ward which is most of the time she prefers most of the EU nurses to the Filipino ones. Whilst individual people vary, as a generalisation she says the EU nurses have better training and closer vocabulary to draw on. However her hospital is 40% understaffed and she is happy with any nurses they can get.

Under Surferjet's logic we still IMPORT the same number of nurses but LOSE all OUR rights at the same time.

I've just thought of something else too about the reciprocal thing. Whilst we may enter into another new trading relationship with India and agree more visas as requested. This will presumably be reciprocal.

But I'd rather my kids had reciprocal rights to live and work in France to be honest. Because it's nearer.

Also with other countries we may get reciprocal rights to travel and work- but it's just for one country at a time .

With the EU we may have recruit more staff from, say, Romania but in return our kids or grandparents are restricted to work or retire in Romania they could choose to go to say, Spain or Portugal.

They’re not better.
It’s just now we decide who to let in, not the EU.
Taking back control!

Anyway it’s the weekend so I’m out of here.

Sorry

in return our kids or grandparents are not restricted to work or retire in Romania- they could choose to go to say, Spain or Portugal.

@surferjet
It’s just now we decide who to let in, not the EU
Since when did the EU decide who applied for jobs here ?

And on a skills based visa regulated immigration system, what happens when nobody chooses to apply .....

You have still chosen not to say how Brexit will make things better
different yes, better no ....

I would rather we NOT encourage trained doctors and nurses from the very poorest countries to come here. These countries need their educated work force in order to evolve and improve. Within Europe, fair enough it's not fully equitable, but it is closer.