Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

The only reason it would be "obvious" it would be a leave vote was if people were actually voting against the Tories and trying to spark a general election. That backfired tremendously however as we then got continued austerity and Tory rule, which is now far less likely to be changed at the next GE because of Brexit and the financial mess we are heading into. Every expert said this. If you trusted politicians to have a plan, especially Tory Eton boys, you can possibly be forgiven but arguing it is still the best way forward after the full facts have been made clear is unforgivable.

European governments failure to reduce inequality is the biggest danger we face, Brexit was an expression of this, look across to France and their protests on taxation, Macron has no problem paying 5-euro's pr litre! but 1.60 cripples many in France.

Look at the gains the Spanish right has made today or Hungary/Poland.

4m working uk people are classed as in-poverty, thats shocking, focusing on Brexit and not its causes, will help no one, least of all the Hesta54's of this world.

In real terms fuel prices in France are still lower than ten years ago.

The gilet jaune thing is just Brexit French style: people want to have their cake and eat it (the French want good services and low taxes, and they can't have it).

European governments failure to reduce inequality is the biggest danger we face,

And yet inequality in France is similar to Denmark (and it does a lot better than the UK).

I was on a bus in Toulouse on Saturday on my way to the airport, watching the cars with a gilet jaune on the dashboard on their way to the demo. This isn't about poverty. It's about white men and their attachment to fuel-inefficient personal transport.

But whether justified or not, the disgruntled will rise up if given enough of a cause and the innocent protesters get caught up. People have died in France due to the protests. Plus some pretty terrifying behaviour. Coming soon to a town near you if food prices increase dramatically.

There is far too much Status Quo bashing on these threads for my liking , three chords have worked for them for years

But on a more serious note, most leave voters I know want the status quo of years gone by and yet at the same time are willing to throw caution to the wind with regards to the future. They want change, but they want to change back, whilst simultaneously looking forward to exciting opportunities which they cannot describe in detail because they believe that there are 'people' working behind the scenes doing all this planning on their behalf who will spring forward at some indefinable point in the future and shriek ' Ta daaaaah' and all will be well.

frumpety
I agree with your analysis.
There was a lot of anger and resentment
and they will not go way or even Down Down

Talkinpeace

Jo Johnson on Hardtalk sting the ref could be "May' s deal", "No deal", "Remain" on a preference system.
How can any responsible individual, let alone an MP or former government minister, suggest No Deal should be an option on the ballot paper? How utterly irresponsible?! Russian roulette with the whole country's future again.
FFS

frumpety Perhaps you can understand how bad or strong people want to leave the EU, Hopping that a change any change will help there circumstances, as no government have over the decades, yes a trading platform, but not the extravagant cost of running the EU headquarters and their lavish pension and all the waste of time and money, it could easily be streamlined and run more efficiently

Hesta we can't even streamline expenses for politicians in our own country, let alone all 27. If leavers seemed bothered about our own politicians doing it, we should start here and take it with us to the EU to change them, not pull out and still put up with it where it costs us more (at home). You never hear a leaver asking how Boris is still in a job, for example.

Total EU admin costs approx 9 billion, a lot of money but divided across 28 countries? considering they represent 28 countries at the WTO, negotiate FTA's Air safety, Nuclear safety, Customs, rules an regs for trading standards, EHIC ....... if each individual country had to do all this, how much would it cost? and you'd still have all those very generous civil service pensions!

Of course it can be run more efficiently, CAP for starters but despite that we are leaving, farm payments are still be guaranteed for a decade or more.

Prepping for brexit has cost the UK 3 billion already and thats before we get into no-deal territory.

I think they would have to have No Deal in the referendum as it’s what many want - crazy as it is.

Parliament would never let us No Deal because it would be catastrophic.
MPs on all sides would stop it.

"but not the extravagant cost of running the EU headquarters and their lavish pension and all the waste of time and money, it could easily be streamlined and run more efficiently"

Then 76% EU total budget is mostly spent in EU countries rather than on the EU headquarters and staff, that's a much smaller amount about 7%.

EU admin is about 6% of budget.

Anyway our total contribution inclusive of rebates was only 0.7% of GDP.

europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-budget/expenditure_en

It was also less than 1% of public spending.

lonelyplanetmum So just a small running cost of 9 billion, I’m sure that money could be better spent,

9 billion is tiny in fiscal terms, even more when you divide it between 28 countries, its about 321 million.

When you compare the benefits each country gets out of membership then its comparatively tiny.

Hesta54, even if it could be, its a drop in the ocean in terms of overall gov spending and we would need to spend much of our share of that returned money on extra civil servants to do the things the EU does on our behalf.

We'd probably get back 500m, that is about 3 or 4 days of NHS spending or would buy 1/2 a new Lockheed fighter plane.

I can see arguments for leaving the EU but admin costs is not a great one.

When you compare the benefits each country gets out of membership then its comparatively tiny.
The problem is that the people who complain about how much the EU costs us tend to be the same people who have no idea how much we actually benefit from being in it.

MyOtherProfile Is this same benefits that countries that don’t pay anything in, or may actually take out get?

BorisBogtrotter It’s amazing that a figure like 9 billion gets chucked about as I’ve it’s nothing, while we’ve people in poverty and using food banks

Why not? its a club, you help Poland, Poland grows, Poles buy more Dysons, Landrovers, VW's JCB's Peugeot Fiats, these new Polish consumers & companies then buy FS from London, boosting tax take etc

the prob is the UK Government spends it on things that don't benefit most people in UK.