Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Peregrina - I've met Nicola on numerous occasions (she's my constituency MSP) and she is a lovely (and very sharp) person in real life She always make you feel she is genuinely interested in you. But don't ever try to get away with not buying raffle tickets from her - she won't take No for an answer Even having forgotten to bring cash with you is not an excuse - she'll say she knows that you are good for it and that you'll drop it by to the raffle organisers later

The first time we met her was when she was out canvassing in the 1997 GE and she doorstepped us. She spent 45 minutes (dh says an hour and a half but he tends to exaggerate ) standing in the close (refused to come in) trying to persuade him to vote for a party, any party. Up to that point he'd always voted but would spoil his vote with "none of the above".

What impressed dh was that she wasn't shouty or dismissive - she was genuinely interested in his opinions and why he felt that no party "spoke" for him.

She didn't win the seat - although turned it from a "safe" Labour seat to a marginal one; it had previously been a very safe Labour one (which had also meant that she had got no real support from the SNP itself as it wasn't a target seat). It was also the seat where Labour were accused of shenanigans with hundreds (thousands?) of proxy votes gathered up from the Asian community in blue plastic bags (Mohammed Sarwar was our Labour MP)

Ruth Davidson, on the other hand, didn't have a good reputation locally (when she leapfrogged our local and only Tory councillor on the regional list for the Scottish Parliament).

Dh also met Tony Blair while he was PM on a number of occasions through work: he described him as "Plastic Bliar" - not interested in anyone who he didn't think was important , eyes always wandering to who else he could talk to who might be more useful to him and not even good at remembering the facts of whatever it was he was up to promote (usually taking the credit for Inward Investment announcements )

judgement being published 9am 4 Dec.

A week before the "Meaningful vote" wink - although I know it's only an interim judgement.

A note on the the Adjutent General Opinion. From my experience of environmentsl law cases, these count for a lot. A bit like a long summary before the final case decision. So I hope that we will know all options before the HoC vote.

I bet JRM will just insult the AG if they announce we can revoke

Sadly, The National Headline won't be seen in the rest of the UK.

been flagged up on a few non-Scots sites I frequent ....

It's also the second time in 2 weeks that The National has effectively been banned from doing its job: two weeks ago, it was the only national Scottish newspaper not allowed to question David Lidington, Theresa May’s deputy, when he was trying to "sell" the WA.

PM this morning:

May says she is not sure that “marriage” is going to be the best analogy for the relationship with the EU afterBrexit. “We are going to be very good friends,” says May.

“Friends with benefits?” Tugendhat asks.

May doesn’t seem to get the joke.

From Guardian Live feed

May says that she wants a special new "third country" category to be invented , so that the UK can continue to be a member of EASA and the EMA

Ah yes, the magic country tree 🌲

Apologies if this has been answered but when is the ECJ ruling due? Has that been announced?

The ECJ ruling is due on 4 December at 8am GMT.

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/29/ukfast_mulls_putting_ipo_on_ice_brexit/

The chief of UKFast has said he expects to postpone his web-hosting and cloud services firm's planned flotation on the London Stock Exchange because of – what else? – Brexit.

(contd)

(These were the clowns that managed to plug a server and it's backup into the same power circuit so when the power went down, we lost everything ...)

You'd weep DGR

{These were the clowns that managed to plug a server and it's backup into the same power circuit so when the power went down, we lost everything ...}
Following the power loss at Southampton hospital yesterday I think a load more money may need to be spent there as it would appear the main and emergency supply failed due to a 'small' fire. Hospitals are usually 'dual wired' so obviously that 'regime' had a weak spot.
At least they can get some 'sparkeys' in and fix that, unlike Brexit.

Reading the comments on the Register article ...

forums.theregister.co.uk/forum/containing/3666046

Maybe he should have thought about that before donating £100,000 to the Tories.

search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Donations/C0319180

search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Donations/C0397438

These were the clowns that managed to plug a server and it's backup into the same power circuit so when the power went down, we lost everything ...

Reminds me of the first trials we did with UPS (Battery powered backup) years ago. We all trouped in on a Saturday - engineers, Systems Managers, Operators, the lot. We braced ourselves; shut off the power... and discovered that no-one had charged up the batteries

Thanks, red

Wow, the ECJ are really motoring, to let the MPs have all the info before voting
Most lawyers who have dealt with the ECJ were saying it might not be before early Jan
The ECJ are clearly trying to be helpful here.

Pretty That is disgraceful - I can't remember any other respectable paper being excluded in the past from such events
and this is in Scotland !
Control freakery

EtVoila The amount of personal data incl CCTV footage that the UK collects is more control freakery
Our masters clearly don't trust us

It says something about a country when even Trumps's US is warned not to sgare data with you

I'm still shocked though if there's no Settlement Status without agreeing to let the HO give your data to anyone it chooses.
They might even sell the data, purely to raise funds, rather than any operational need

Does anyone know how many of the MPs are married to each other ?
There are also quite a few MPs with a parent / uncle / aunt who was an MP

It all seems rather incestuous

It would be better if the 650 MPs were drawn from a wider range of families and circumstances
Otherwise, it starts to resemble the HoL

Does anyone know how many of the MPs are married to each other ?

More than their parents were ....

😏

A no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis

the Bank of England has warned.

That looks like a Depression, not just a bad recession 😱

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

• The UK economy could shrink by 8% in 2019 < holy fuck, 1% would be bad >

• ^GDP would take until nearly 2024 to return to current level

• Unemployment would rise to 7.5%^

• ^Inflation would rise to 6.6%

• House prices would fall by 30%^
  commercial property prices collapse by 48%.

• The pound could fall by 25%

R North (comment #200)

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87068#comment-4216339094

"If EU trade collapses and we suffer knock-on effects, < and we don't roll over non-EU deals >
the consequences could be far worse that the BoE indicates

Its basic problem is you cannot model chaos.

And if that is the result of a "no deal" Brexit,
we could end up hoping that Carney's predictions were right."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

The number of EU citizens moving to the UK has continued to drop, but more people coming from elsewhere means the overall migration rate is unchanged.

Figures show net migration - the difference between how many people came to the UK for at least 12 months and how many left - was 273,000 last year.

EU net migration was 74,000 in the year to the end of June 2018, while non-EU net migration was 248,000.

(contd)

I wonder how many die-hard leavers would change their mind if they thought staying in the EU could reverse ...

The ONS said more Asian citizens had been moving to the UK for work.

In contrast, Norway++ would just reduce the increase in GDP
i.e. GDP would continue to rise

The WA would reduce the increase even more
but forecasts are that the GDP would still rise, just v slowly

When people ask what is the difference between a bad deal and No Deal,
Carney's answer is probably the most informed

The MP I was talking about earlier - Mohammed Sarwar - was succeeded by his son, Anas Sarwar (slightly different constituency due to boundary changes).

He lost his safe seat in the 2015 rout of Labour by the SNP (succeeded by Alison Thewliss who had been a very active MP, particularly on Women's Rights - like the so-called "Rape Clause" with regard to more than 2 children and benefits).

He managed to get back into politics as an MSP by winning a List seat at the 2016 Holyrood elections (even though he'd previously been very disparaging of the Scottish Parliament - and in particular the List seats )

From the BBC just now:
"Mr Corbyn claimed he preferred ITV's bid out of "respect" for viewers who wanted to watch the I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! final on ITV the same evening - 9 December.
"I want to watch it myself," he said."
What the Fuck? Can we get some grown ups here, please. This is important. Even more important than faking a like for popular culture.

Maybe we could have a 'very celebrity' get me out of here. Corbyn, May, Mogg, BoJo. Set them the tasks then the cameras and crew come home and just leave the 4 of them. Maybe a retrospective after 6 months 'What happened in the jungle'.