Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Interesting conversation

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
Wondering what the parliamentary implications of Advocate General view (if ECJ agrees) on A50? MPs voted to trigger it - surely they would need to vote to revoke?

Nikki da Costa @nmdacosta
Not just a vote, a new bill to unpick the EU Withdrawal Act and A50 Act

Andy Shaw @redandy54
Blows a hole in the #PeoplesVote timetable surely. New primary and secondary legislation for a second referendum, run-in and campaign period, followed by further primary legislation to revoke the A50 notification (assuming a Remain win) - all by March 29? Cloud cuckoo land.

David Whitley @ mrdavidwhitley
MPs didn't vote to trigger it. They voted to bestow to power to trigger it on the Prime Minister.

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
Hmmmmm good point

David Whitley @mrdavidwhitley
Still going to be legally hazy on whether PM can revoke on her own. But very strong legal argument that Parliament has already provided that power.

And the threat of using it could be a handy tool for May in fending off a confidence vote from ERG types.

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
I don’t think that washes to be honest - you need to repeal the EU withdrawal bill for a start

David Whitley @ mrdavidwhitley
Ah. Strong point. The exit date clause is the problem there.

Strikes me that there's a legal case just waiting to happen right there - Article A50 Challenge 2: Legal Hotshots ReDux on Stereoids.

I disagree with David Whitley about it being a way to keep ERG types in line though. It's the exact opposite.

But yeah messy and not as clear and easy as you might think to revoke A50.

@DGRossetti - the Brexit stuff - the legal advice about being allowed to reverse A50 - was on the Today programme at some length. Just heard it on the school run.

I think May will use the ruling to strengthen her arguement that voting against her deal would lead to 'no brexit'.

I had to stop listening to the Today programme ages ago on Citroens advice.

They said they couldn't honour the warranty if I kept banging the steering wheel so hard when listening to the radio.

I did try strapping a kitten to the dashboard to stroke during the more contentious bits (when John Humphries does his moonlighting for Leave.EU job). But apparently it's somehow "unsafe".

It's Health and Safety gone mad, I tell you.

Also kittens grow too quickly.

MONDAY 8AM (9AM CET) OFFICIAL ECJ RULING.

Time of the debate in HoC on contempt of Parliament?

The schedule for this morning is as follows:

11.30am
Oral questions - Foreign and Commonwealth Office (including Topical Questions)
Ten Minute Rule Motion - Planning (Appeals)
Motion - Proceedings on a Business Motion relating to Section 13 (1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018
Debate - Section 13 (1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Day 1)

There are not times given other than 11.30am. I think it was supposed to be first thus morning. I am assuming it's the motion above, so it will happen after the oral questions and ten min rule bill have been completed. But I could be wrong.

Will we see MPs being wheeled in on stretchers to make the vote ?

I think May will use the ruling to strengthen her arguement that voting against her deal would lead to 'no brexit'.

She will.
And she will be completely ignored.
The temptation to remain / have no deal will ultimately be too strong, and too many MPs are not taking the possibility and implications of No Deal seriously enough.

It's a gigantic game of gambling your own house to win the jackpot on the lottery.

Thanks!
/hastily rearranges schedule.

Will we see MPs being wheeled in on stretchers to make the vote ?

With this bunch of MPs? Na, I can see some drafting their dig ate their homework excuses instead already.

Three line whip in place for 12.30pm today:

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Morning everyone. Could you do us a favour and nip down to the chamber today. In a slight pickle as the government is about to be held in contempt.

(I'm out 10am to about 1.30pm. Sucky timing)

•Attorney General reasoned impartial opinion 8am Friday.

•ECJ no doubt equally reasoned and impartial decision 8 am Monday.

Rather puts paid to the unfounded accusations of EU inefficiency alleged by buffoons like Boris Pfeffel.

If we do ever back pedal from this shit, which I still think unlikely, I hope we apologise profusely for all the trouble we've caused.

Also if we end of having a renewal of vows ceremony, our dowry should be a huge charitable donation towards homeless refugees or similar.

Dominic Grieve on R4 Today this morning playing down problems with the Great Repel Act - his line was that it could be amended as necessary relatively easily?

He was on just after 8.30 am.

No Humphrys this morning so my blood pressure was not at risk.

[Is there anyone still out there who enjoys listening to John Humphries I wonder?]

the government is about to be held in contempt.

Nothing to see here. Move on folks

DGR would you believe the BBC has the story in its Scotland section?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46428579?__twitter_impression=true

Is there a Mrs Humphreys? She probably tunes in if she's no other pressing engagements.

Good article in the guardian today (can't link ) about the shady powers involved in the push for a free trade deal with US. Seems to be a group of
right wing libertarian think tanks - American bridge, Institute of Economic affairs, Cato group who have an inordinate amount of influence
amongst the hard brexiteers. Most people won't have a clue who they are
and I'm certain won't agree with their blueprint for a post brexit uk but that's
unfortunately what they'll inadvertently get !

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
The number of news outlets getting the status of the Advocate General's opinion wrong is an index of how poor and shallow news reporting is on EU matters.

Especially at the BBC.

Dear BBC, Mumsnet has better reporting than you.

@DGRossetti . I waited till dd was out of the car before I started swearing at the radio. Listened to Radio 1/Capitol on the way in for her benefit. Have to hold my tongue when the news comes on her stations.

Buteo that's not what I took away from Dominic Grieve at all. He said that people should be offered the chance to vote again and that Teresa May's deal was selling us down the swanny and he would vote against it because he had to put the national interest before party politics.

If we do ever back pedal from this shit, which I still think unlikely, I hope we apologise profusely for all the trouble we've caused.

Can see there aren't many management consultants here. Course you don't do that.

What you do is point out how the last two years have proved the EUs robustness and ability to react to extraordinary events calmly and with reason thanks to it's unique structure.

Apologise ? They should be thanking us !!!!!

dammit, I promised dd a nice walk in the sunshine. I might need to go and poke her awake.

Why is it that Politicians who have been proven to have lied on many matters over the last 3 years have not been taken to task about it?

{It's a gigantic game of gambling your own house to win the jackpot on the lottery.}
No, they don't have any morals and it's not their money, livelihood or lives that are at risk.

The have been at least two 'Mrs Humphreys'.

DGR and then invoice a management consultancy fee saying you were just stress testing the robustness? Ah I see now.