Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Another here who wishes that everyone would stop referring to the WA as a Deal, been guilty of it myself, it isn't a deal, it is a cobbled together withdrawal agreement. Basically a wish list of what the UK would like to happen in the future, with a couple of play nicely promises ( made with fingers crossed behind their backs) thrown in.

All the impact assessments of this WA and the potential future relationship with the EU have been based on the UK getting everything it wants, when it wants it. So the slightly worse off mantra by Hammond is rubbish, based on nothing more than a flight of fancy.

mother If the cross party amendment on no deal passes, then the govt would be crazy stupid to ignore it, so no deal would be off the cards

Thanks mother, interesting thought that if the cross-party amendment to avoid no deal is actually agreed, then maybe it could no longer be a choice on a ballot paper.

Perhaps if it’s agreed, then it will gradually recede in everyone’s consciousness that it’s even an option.
Or, maybe the Govt would have to be prescriptive and say, ‘No, no-deal is too bad for the country, you can’t even have it as an option, sorry, we can’t let you do it to yourselves, our own impact assessments have found that it’d be disastrous.’

Which is probably what they should have done in the first place.

lonelyplanetmum there’s a lot in what you say. Not enough consensus to make such a major decision. The government should have said that too.

If we are looking down the barrel of no deal - what else could we try to honour the will of the people in the referendum ?

Well if anyone knows anyone who is part of the TV audiences in these forthcoming debates please can they pin our 'go home vans' PM down about immigration?

We've established that we were ( past tense) the fifth strongest economy as a result of EU membership. Even the govt now reluctantly have disclosed that any Brexit scenario is hugely detrimental economically. I've noticed more and more Leavers now acknowledge it's financially detrimental, but say that things can't get worse for them personally ...and that it's about things other than money anyway.

This means the feelz. Mostly the 'feelings' of control were based on immigration being a 'problem'. ( This is against all proper studies and evidence) .

If we want to honour the feelz of the people - Can we nail down why no new attempt was made to introduce a proper immigration system before triggering Article 50 and relinquishing EU membership?

Given that immigration and austerity were the main underlying issues why haven't we even tried out a new system first? That's better than no deal surely?

Non EU migration has increased significantly since the ref. Radio 4 said yesterday it's the highest in 14 years. People still have those ( misplaced) concerns about immigration so it remains the elephant in the room.

We will go to all this financial and many other sacrifices, lose jobs and businesses in droves, be poorer, weaker and in crisis. We will have ditched the EU, l but the real thing many people were concerned about will remain unaddressed. Although I suppose if the economic hit is as large as expected the non EU migrants will stop coming too.

It's all so illogical. The concerns were austerity and immigration. So rather than a fing no deal , 'Brexit' stage one can be a plan to address those issues .

.

People still have those ( misplaced) concerns about immigration so it remains the elephant in the room.
Actually I’m not so sure. There is a feeling of control and ability to choose with non EU immigrants that will make a lot of people more confortable than the EU immigration where everyone and anyone could come to the uk.

It feeds into the ‘we choose who we need and who is actually worth coming’ as well as the ‘immigrants won’t be pinching work for british citizens’ and ‘no criminals will be allowed in this country’.

The being WORTHY in particular is a very important concept because it automatically puts the immigrant one step down rather than an equal (you can only stay if you are of any use to us type of feeling as well as creating the need on the immigrant side to ‘prove’ they are worthy)

Option 3 does not exist either. There is no 'WTO Terms' document sitting in a drawer in Whitehall waiting to be dusted off on 29th March if the UK leaves with no transition period agreed.

I’m prettty sure I have read that the WTO has actually agreed to carry on with the same terms than the U.K. has Sonat least we wouod have some terms of the U.K. crashes out.
I’ll have to dig that article out.

Here is the article

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-wto/wto-agrees-in-principle-to-keep-britain-in-procurement-deal-envoy-idUKKCN1NW1WN?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

Britain said it had secured agreement in principle on Tuesday to continue as an independent member of the World Trade Organization's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) after it leaves the European Union.
Although the "agreement in principle" appears to put Britain on track for post-Brexit membership of the GPA, it still needs to ratify the treaty.
That requires 21 sitting days of parliament, meaning that the GPA terms need to be finalised by the end of January to make the Brexit day of March 29, 2019.

So i was right and wrong. The treaty needs to be finalised in January but is well on the way (or at least better than it was à month ago when there was Russia officially objecting to it)

The lower value of the pound is likely to have made the UK a less attractive place to live and work and economic conditions in several of the top countries of origin for EU migrants have improved.”

I love how the fact that the U.K. isn't attractive to the much higher level of xenophobia as well as the uncertainty about the status of eu citizens isn’t mentioned.
Who in earth would want to come to a country where their status is so unclear AND faces a potential massive economic downturn?
Plus the fact that the image the U.K. has projected about itself isn’t good either.

Not just Russia @EtVoilaBrexit , nice friendly nations like NZ.
I would expect the very least in ano deal scenario that we trade on WTO terms. That doesn't do the pesky customs paperwork for us which snarls things up at the border which leads to stuff not getting to supermarkets which leads to mayhem.
No country trades solely on WTO terms because it is the shitiest option.
Hope you've transferred all your funds to Dublin so your hedge fund is safe .... no, wait a minute, only people like JRM can do that. Ordinary people suffer (PROPER SUFFER) under a system that crashes us back onto WTO.

Actually I’m not so sure. There is a feeling of control and ability to choose with non EU immigrants that will make a lot of people more confortable than the EU immigration where everyone and anyone could come to the uk.

Yes it's all about the bloody feelings.As we all know we never enforced the system .. after 3 months in the UK EU migrants need to be either working, have a member of the family working, or have sufficient funds to and full sickness insurance. If not then they can be returned from whence they came .

Post ref we could have pandered to the feelz, Farage should have been given a consultancy role to implement a visible system just like say Belgium. That would have delivered for a lot of people like my FIL- just something being seen to be done. We just never bothered to register EU migrants and don't track how long they have been in the UK. The reality is we didn't need to as they were economically beneficial and essential.

However the terminology and lack of a visible system has allowed the Farage crew to portray the FoM as uncontrolled when it could have been.

We just go around in circles.

You’re so right Lonely, the immigration issue will still bother a lot of people even after Brexit. (And I’ve always thought it seemed arrogant and conceited to announce ‘we’ll only let you in if you’re worthwhile.’ As if we’re very special.)

Alastair Campbell points out 11 lies in May’s letter. I think these are particularly shocking:

3 The deal will put “an end to vast annual payments to the EU”. I wonder how many citizens of the nation saw that and made an assumption that this “end” will be “put” as soon as we leave? In fact, we will be paying off the so-called ‘divorce bill’ well into the next decade, and if we have to extend the process, that bill will go higher and have to be paid for longer. As to what we get in return, this seems to have been lost in the post.

4 “We will be able to spend British taxpayers’ money on our own priorities, like the extra £394 million per week that we are investing in our long-term plan for the NHS.” This one is in the pants on fire category, a blatant effort to pretend there is a link between Brexit and additional funding for the NHS, the so-called Brexit dividend, a big black lie spawned by the big red bus, and exposed so often it is a definite and disappointing breach of the above commandment that she continues with the pretence.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/theresa-may-brexit-letter-deceit-exposed-1-5799902

According to a news item yesterday ( R4) imigration is up, not from EU but from rest of the world.

@lonelyplanetmum. I get tired of seemingly saying this again and again but from where we have been historically we can either have an open and generous welfare system (which I imagine most MNers would want) or an open door to imigiration. Either of those things on their own is fine, both together is not.

We don’t apply the various (I would say illusory) controls for 2 pricipal reasons IMO. Business has wanted unfettered access to a large pool of trained labour so it doesn’t have to carry the cost of training it’s own workforce. This is, was and always will be wrong IMO and that’s why it needs to end. bTw we are all complicit in this, enjoying lower costs for what we buy because of it, doesn’t make it right.

2 the government doesn’t want to bear the cost of administering a more closed welfare system and labour market than we already have. Not sure what I feel on ID cards personally but they’ve never flown here, and I bet if you asked people to pay for the system it wouldn’t be popular. It’s also completely antithetical to our open society and legal system. All this “just use the controls” stuff is nonsense.

Dh liked this analogy yesterday from the chair of the Transport Select Committee (Lilian Greenwood - dh thought it was Sarah Woolaston because of the simile used).

"wheeling a patient into the operating theatre, for an operation that no-one knows how to perform or what it's for, with a consent form that is two and a half years old"

If we are looking down the barrel of no deal - what else could we try to honour the will of the people in the referendum ?

We could start to ask those heavily leave voting areas what their real issues are, and then tackle them. I don't think it will take a genius to work out that it will be concerns about the NHS, education, housing, insecure jobs for a starters.

There is a feeling of control and ability to choose with non EU immigrants that will make a lot of people more confortable than the EU immigration where everyone and anyone could come to the uk.

I am not at all sure about this - the immigrants now coming will be black or brown and probably Muslim, and definitely more 'other' than the Poles or other E Europeans who look exactly like the majority of UK citizens in the average town or village.

wheeling a patient into the operating theatre, for an operation that no-one knows how to perform or what it's for, with a consent form that is two and a half years old

That's good.

And it's to solve problems that will be made worse by this particular operation.

Should have tried serious physiotherapy first.

Indeed Peregrina : the ONS report yesterday said the largest increase in immigration was from Asia, in particular Pakistan and India

We don’t apply the various (I would say illusory) controls for 2 pricipal reasons IMO. Business has wanted unfettered access to a large pool of trained labour so it doesn’t have to carry the cost of training it’s own workforce. This is, was and always will be wrong IMO and that’s why it needs to end.

What makes you think it will end? With the NHS for example, we have always relied on staff trained elsewhere e.g. Ireland, India, West Indies. It could change if there was a determined will to change, so what have we seen? Applications for nursing and midwifery collapsing because the bursary scheme has been ended.

Not sure what I feel on ID cards personally but they’ve never flown here, and I bet if you asked people to pay for the system it wouldn’t be popular.

I suspect that this is something which the country has now moved on with - now that we have to produce various bits of ID to do things which never required it. A simple card with name, address, DoB, photo and signature, issued by the Local Authority - similar to a bus pass could be a winner. Blair had some convoluted expensive scheme which was killed off.

All kids in Scotland are sent a Young Scot card from 12(?) valid to 24(?) which enables them to access various discounts and also (iirc) free/reduced leisure LA facilities (depending on the local authority).

It also allows reduced (-30%?) train and bus travel up to 19 (minimum £12 for peak travel but akaik, no minimum for off-peak).

It's not a fancy, all singing all dancing ID card but is easily implemented.

Photo for the first one was done at school but it's easy to update the photo at libraries, if you take along another form of ID.

So, as there seems to be an evolving cross party back bench support for some kind of Norway ++ future trade, is it plausible that the following could happen:

Withdrawal agreement voted down first time

Political chaos

Emerging consensus that we ratify and exit, but only on the basis that we will be negotiating on Norway ++ for the future trade deal

Withdrawal agreement amended somehow to reflect this, and subsequently ratified

Exit on 29th March into transition and negotiations

Basically, starting to do what Theresa May should have done two years ago and look for what actually could command consensus àcross the house?

I acknowledge the issue that some people will say if that's the destination, why bother, but this route would fulfil the 2016 mandate.

This observation is probably out of place as I have missed the last couple of pages but given a very specific set of circumstances for example Tim the prick, may well be 'a great outcome' but unless everyone is running a pub/eatery the overall result is not good at all.

@EtVoilaBrexit
Britain said it had secured agreement in principle on Tuesday to continue as an independent member of the World Trade Organization's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) after it leaves the European Union.

This is an just an agreement that allows companies in 47 out of the 164 WTO member countries to bid for Government contracts in each others countries. This is not the general 'WTO Terms' or 'WTO Membership' that is regularly raised in the Brexit discussion.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mike-harding-response-to-theresa-may-brexit-letter-1-5796884

This response to Theresa May’s letter has gone viral

Theresa May’s begging letter to the nation appealing for unity on Brexit did not go well, with many ridiculing her call for us all to “come together as one”.

However in among all of the tweets and social media posts mocking the letter is this poignant response directed at the prime minister that has had the most cut-through.

It comes from comic and veteran folk singer Mike Harding and has been shared more than 30,000 times - and considerably more than Theresa May’s own letter was shared on social media.

For those that have not yet seen the letter, it is reproduced below.

Dear Mrs May

I am in France having a break having come here on the train all the way from Settle. I just read your letter to me and the rest of Britain wanting us all to unite behind the damp squib you call a deal. Unite? I laughed so much the mouthful of frogs legs I was eating ended up dancing all over the bald head of the bloke on the opposite table.

Your party’s little civil war has divided this country irreparably. The last time this happened Cromwell discontinued the custom of kings wearing their heads on their shoulders.

I had a mother who was of Irish descent, an English father who lies in a Dutch graveyard in the village where his Lancaster bomber fell in flames. I had a Polish stepfather who drove a tank for us in WW2 and I have two half Polish sisters and a half Polish brother who is married to a girl from Donegal.

My two uncles of Irish descent fought for Britain in N Africa and in Burma.

So far you have called us Citizens Of Nowhere and Queue Jumpers. You have now taken away our children and grandchildren’s freedom to travel, settle, live and work in mainland Europe.

You have made this country a vicious and much diminished place. You as Home Sec sent a van round telling foreigners to go home. You said “ illegal” but that was bollocks as the legally here people of the Windrush generation soon discovered.

Your party has sold off our railways, water, electricity, gas, telecoms, Royal Mail etc until all we have left is the NHS and that is lined up for the US to have as soon as Hannon and Hunt can arrange it.

You have lied to the people of this country. You voted Remain yet changed your tune when the chance to grab the job of PM came. You should have sacked those lying bastards Gove and Bojo but daren’t because you haven’t the actual power.

You have no answer to the British border on the island of Ireland nor do you know how the Gib border with Spain will work once we are out.

Mrs May you have helped to divide this country to such an extent that families and friends are now no longer talking to each other, you have managed to negotiate a deal far worse than the one we had and all to keep together a party of millionaires, Eton Bullingdon boys, spivs and WI harridans. Your party conserves nothing. It has sold everything off in the name of the free market.

You could have kept our industries going with investment and development – Germany managed it. But no – The Free Market won so Sunderland, Barnsley, Hamilton etc could all go to the devil.

So Mrs May my answer to your plea for unity is firstly that it is ridiculous.

48% of us will never forgive you for Brexit and secondly, of the 52% that voted for it many will not forgive you for not giving them what your lying comrades like Rees Mogg and Fox promised them.

There are no unicorns, there is no £350 million extra for the NHS. The economy will tank and there will be less taxes to help out the poor. We have 350,000 homeless (not rough sleepers – homeless) in one of the richest countries on Earth and you are about to increase that number with your damn fool Brexit.

The bald man has wiped the frogs legs of his head, I’ve bought him a glass of wine to say sorry; I’m typing this with one finger on my phone in France and I’m tired now and want to stop before my finger gets too tired to join the other one in a sailors salute to you and your squalid Brexit, your shabby xenophobia and Little Englander mentality.

Two fingers to you and your unity from this proud citizen of nowhere. I and roughly half the country will never forgive you or your party.