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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

OP posts:
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lonelyplanetmum · 27/11/2018 19:11

My MP's Father started the whole bloody referendum campaign. Sir James Goldsmith and his widow poured millions of dollars from their vast international fortune to oppose EU membership.

The Zac apple hasn't fallen far from the tree despite allegedly representing a remain constituency.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 19:15

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Tory MPs are circulating this, from 1992, saying it reminds them of someone today.

Can you guess who?

Alan B'Stard makes the case for a Brexit
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Squigglypig · 27/11/2018 19:34

I just had a call from IQR asking me about my opinions on Brexit and Teresa May's deal. The researcher wouldn't tell me who she was calling on behalf of but given there were questions on whether I would vote again for an MP who supported TMs deal or not, I'm guessing the government. It was quite exciting, I've never been polled before.

merrymouse · 27/11/2018 19:36

The Zac apple hasn't fallen far from the tree despite allegedly representing a remain constituency.

Hardly surprising given that anything he has achieved has been bank rolled by the family fortune.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 27/11/2018 19:38

Another one signing in to say so sorry your wife had such a horrible experience DG. I too have a foreign, EU, surname and have wondered whether there will come a time when I’m subjected to abuse because of it.

It goes without saying that, like everyone else, I hope she has good news re her implant.

Staringcoat · 27/11/2018 19:48

Yes me too DG (sorry I've only just seen your earlier post)
How utterly hideous for her to have had to experience that Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 19:54

As a Remainer expat - maybe LeClerc, Misti agree ?- I find there is far too little consideration of the EU view in all this,
how the endless British internal squabbling has exhausted their patience and tolerance

imo, too many Remainers in the UK are too parochial, just clutching at any possibility that could lead to Revoke and assume the EU will support their clutch
Um, no

I read a lot of articles in the German, Dutch, Brussels press.
I recommend this, for a perspective of how others view the UK - some are in English:

A Second Brexit Referendum – What Makes You Think They Will Have You Back?

www.ejiltalk.org/author/jweiler/

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 19:59

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michael-gove-brexit-deal-secret-weapon_uk_5bfd9511e4b03b230fa7b2ea
Michael Gove Unleashed As May’s ‘Secret Weapon’ In Bid To Sell Brexit Deal To Tory MPs
Environment Secretary key to winning round backbenchers.

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SingingBabooshkaBadly · 27/11/2018 20:02

I’m forced by circumstance to skim a lot of the threads these days so
apologies to all if this has already been shared but, for anyone who hasn’t seen it, here’s a link to folk singer Mike Harding’s reply to TM’s letter to the nation.

If anyone knows him please buy him a 🍺 (preferably one originating from another EU country)

inktank.fi/this-fantastic-response-to-theresas-mays-brexit-letter-is-going-viral/

Hazardswan · 27/11/2018 20:07

bigchoc Course the EU is fed up with us, thats like stating we need oxygen.

Medicine, water issues, food shortages, xenophobia, a growing ablist sentiment, etc etc. Call it arrogant but why as carer would i prioritise the EU feeling fed up of our fannying if it means no one dies?

IF we remain then obviously we need to send out muffin baskets or something as a feeble apology but there's literally no righting the wrong of the UK's behaviour other than stopping the behaviour.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 20:19

BCF
France seems to be quite busy with the yellow jackets at present particularly as it has probably been subverted and some are trying to set Paris on fire. I am doubting there is really much consideration of Brexit.
A UK crash out may help Mr Macron considerably and he does need some good news. He is trying to push reforms possibly a bit too hard for the general population of France. Of course what industry actually does in March will be the big thing. I read the WA as a polite' please go away' message, which has some quite harsh measures to focus UK minds while essentially keeping the status quo. If I were negotiating (thankfully I am not) it is a strategy I would take.
The world is a tough place to be and taking your trousers down and bending over is asking for trouble. It is just staggering that the UK government, of both major parties can be so undiplomatic.
Finally ending the Empire with a bang.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 20:24

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
EXC: BuzzFeed News has been leaked details of 57 dummy amendments that Theresa May’s aides fear could be laid by Tory and Labour rebels if the Withdrawal Agreement bill comes to a Commons vote

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/brexit-meaningful-vote-amendments-wargame?__twitter_impression=true
This Is How The Government Is War-Gaming What Happens If It Wins The Meaningful Vote On Brexit
Exclusive: BuzzFeed News has been leaked details of 57 dummy amendments that Theresa May’s aides fear could be laid by Tory and Labour rebels.

Ministers were today ordered to take part in a cross-Whitehall “dry run” rehearsal of how to handle 57 potential amendments to the bill. Fair to say they are surprised to be having to prepare for winning the meaningful vote...

Philip Hammond told to prepare for amendment that No10 says could be put down by an “influential Tory backbencher”, demanding “payment of the financial settlement to the EU will be halted until and unless the future relationship has been concluded”

Liam Fox has been asked to prepare for a possible amendment tabled by pro-Remain rebels requiring him to provide updates on how his negotiations for new trade deals are going 😬

Under one scenario drawn up for Sajid Javid by DExEU aides today, Labour MP and chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee Yvette Cooper would table an amendment demanding further protections for EU citizens

No10 is also planning for a potential Brexiteer amendment to the bill insisting on a new “public holiday to commence on 29 March every year”. David Lidington has to work out how to combat it.

PM’s aides are concerned that Dominic Raab and David Davis could table amendments frustrating the bill on ECHR and equalities laws

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Mistigri · 27/11/2018 20:25

^As a Remainer expat - maybe LeClerc, Misti agree ?- I find there is far too little consideration of the EU view in all this,
how the endless British internal squabbling has exhausted their patience and tolerance^

Agree with the last bit. But I don't think that there is a single homogenous attitude towards a possible revocation of A50. I think national interests would come into play, because the damage that Brexit will cause isn't going to be spread evenly.

Mistigri · 27/11/2018 20:27

A UK crash out may help Mr Macron considerably

I definitely don't agree with this, for example. France is one of the bigger losers from Brexit, because of the importance of cross channel trade for what is otherwise rather a poor post-industrial area.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 20:36

{Michael Gove Unleashed}
Ye gods, what a prospect!

{https://www.ejiltalk.org/author/jweiler/}
Very sobering thoughts and I totally agree. The UK (well government with it's band of cheerleaders) have collectively 'shit the bed' and the only way is to leave.
It will be interesting to know how many 'golden hello's' are offered by EU companies for existing/former UK employees either now or in the future.
So much of the world depends on smoke and mirrors with an underpinning of pragmatism, the UK have simply lost the plot.

Quietrebel · 27/11/2018 20:37

Just what DW needs after being told to "fuck off home" for the first time (it's that foreign name)

Horrendous.
Whoever said that is pond life.

I've noticed a huge increase in aggression and downright violence recently. One of DDs lovely (EU) teachers got glassed in the eye in a completely unprovoked attack and has been in hospital for two weeks (and likely to stay much longer). We don't know if there was any xenophobic motive but regardless it's just so horrendous to see such things happening in our community.

jasjas1973 · 27/11/2018 20:40

imo, too many Remainers in the UK are too parochial, just clutching at any possibility that could lead to Revoke and assume the EU will support their clutch

Um, no

Fighting for what you believe in is how i was bought up, not cowering and running away, once the deal is voted down, a new world opens up, with new possibilities.

As for the EU? a policy is only policy until it isn't.

We offer the EU a great deal, security, defence, financial services, science, tech and pharma

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 27/11/2018 20:45

there's literally no righting the wrong of the UK's behaviour other than stopping the behaviour.

Hear, hear Hazard

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 20:46

Mistigri
Obviously you have a much better grip on France than me but cross channel trade will change, but not disappear (presuming the UK wants to eat and has some money) but the prospect of getting some bits of industry 'stolen' from the UK would be tempting. Macron did have a bit of a bash a couple of months back getting business leaders over for a chat. Airbus plants being brought over from the UK would be interesting although I have a feeling some is now heading for China.
The chance for the french to 'get one over' the Brits would play quite well too.

Quietrebel · 27/11/2018 20:50

And also the point is that perhaps the UK can revoke unilaterally. In that case, it won't have to care what other members think. Sure, some of them might want to put the UK on the 'naughty step' for a bit but ultimately they wouldn't be able to take away what we have. If a50 is revoked on time, no one can kick the UK out of the EU! It's no more about feelings than brexit itself should be!

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 20:54

{We offer the EU a great deal, security, defence, financial services, science, tech and pharma}
Absolutely when it is collaborative, and I expect many in these fields are devastated. The trouble is BoJo's comment about business and then to make matters infinitely worse, not a retraction but a continuation and expansion of the theme to make it a likelihood.

missmoon · 27/11/2018 20:55

“A Second Brexit Referendum – What Makes You Think They Will Have You Back?”

This may be true of the press in some countries, but is not my experience in talking to people. I travel to the EU a lot for work, every week or two weeks to different countries, and everyone I’ve spoken to (mostly civil servants, government officials, academics, and EU commission staff) have said how sad they are at what is happening, how sorry they feel for us, and how they still hope the whole thing can be reversed. They are aware of the opposition to Brexit, and are sympathetic.

missmoon · 27/11/2018 20:58

Fighting for what you believe in is how i was bought up, not cowering and running away, once the deal is voted down, a new world opens up, with new possibilities.

Couldn’t agree more!

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 21:00

Quietrebel
This piece {https://www.ejiltalk.org/author/jweiler/} is casting quite strong doubt about revoking. Obviously it is not through the legal process yet so no one knows.
His argument talks about countries taking it to the wire and revoking unilaterally thus 'resetting' the clock for another 2 years, which is clearly not what was intended. The whole 2 year idea was to focus minds to make it less than easy.

missmoon · 27/11/2018 21:05

His argument talks about countries taking it to the wire and revoking unilaterally thus 'resetting' the clock for another 2 years, which is clearly not what was intended. The whole 2 year idea was to focus minds to make it less than easy

This was mentioned today in the A50 case, and the judges asked several questions about it. It’s well worth reading the transcript / summary of what was said this morning. Here:
goodlawproject.org/resources-article-50-hearing/

It’s the one called “notes from the hearing”. The questions are especially interesting.

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