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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

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Talkstotrees · 26/11/2018 22:47

The hard of thinking have turned up on the Brexit webchat thread Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 22:49

That illustrates why Remain is better than even Soft Brexit / Norway++

but the Backstop - even if the WA transition doesn't produce Norway - is better than the possible FTAs

which in turn is better than WTO / No Deal
with a Disorderly (i.e. unplanned) No Deal being disastrous in the short term.

SwedishEdith · 26/11/2018 22:49

I was wondering that. And then I looked at his timeline.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 22:50

I'm hoping at least one of those 2 eejits is spoofing ....

ElenadeClermont · 26/11/2018 22:54

Talktotrees That webchat thread is exhausting.

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 23:05

Shakes head, wondering what this is all for. And for whom.

Not us anyway.

PineappleSunrise · 27/11/2018 06:30

Going back to one of EtVoila's comments the other day, I feel these days like I don't know this country at all, in spite being here for nearly 25 years. It's like being happily married for decades and then suddenly seeing your partner change personality dramatically.

bellinisurge · 27/11/2018 06:41

@PineappleSunrise - it's like the hunger games with World War Two as the theme. Some idiots think that's a fab place to be as a nation. Pathetic.
Hopefully MPs will see sense and do what it takes to avoid No Deal. At this point I'll accept Shit Deal .

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 27/11/2018 06:48

EXCL Number 10 chief begs Labour MPs to back 'tenacious' Theresa May's Brexit deal

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/100155/excl-number-10-chief-begs-labour-mps-back

Motheroffourdragons · 27/11/2018 07:28

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

merrymouse · 27/11/2018 07:49

I’m trying to understand - was he taking the piss out of Batten?

Looking at his other tweets on the EU, no.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 08:17

{ It's like being happily married for decades and then suddenly seeing your partner change personality dramatically.}
I sort of wish you hadn't said that Pineapple, as it is the main reason I am where I am now. Piling Brexit on top is a bit much.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 08:23

I wasn't going to go on the webchat thread as I am annoyed that it is MNHQ being 'opportunistic' to boost their incomes.
Making Brexit a bit more prominent over the last 2 1/2 years (well, before the vote) might have saves a lot of upcoming heartache, and probable death. I am onlt meaning addinf a one word 'link' word on the MN home page, not a big box banner like the often annoying 'adverts'. Jumping on the bandwagon this late in the 'game' is simply profiteering.

merrymouse · 27/11/2018 08:24

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/26/pms-new-brexit-mantra-everything-is-agreed-although-nothing-is-agreed

There are now only two possibilities left. Either no one has told Theresa May the result of last year’s general election and she is under the impression she has a 100-seat majority in the Commons. Or she simply cannot count. Whichever it is, we’re long past the point where the prime minister’s much-prized fortitude and stoicism has slipped into pig-headedness and outright stupidity.

If we slide into no deal, without a general election the structure of parliament stays the same. Would people like Justine Greening and Anna Soubry back a Tory government led by whoever JRM thinks should be the next PM? Would a GE be inevitable?

borntobequiet · 27/11/2018 08:27

Norway’s population is under 5.5 million. There are few similarities between the U.K. and Norway.
I'm not sure what your point is?

That there is not a huge influx of immigrants to Norway because there are fewer people there in the first place.
That the difference between the UK and the Norwegian economies means that the type of work carried out by immigrant labour will also be different, for example the relatively high paid skilled employment in the oil industry vs unskilled agricultural labour harvesting vegetables, and different types of immigrant workers (as well as fewer) will be attracted.

lonelyplanetmum · 27/11/2018 08:31

*That web chat thread is exhausting
*
One thing I noticed is that there are some questions that are framed :

" What are you going to do about the housing issue?" Or
How do you propose to fix funding for social services etc ?

But these are just academics with knowledge of International relationships and trade. Led me to ponder about attitudes to the establishment.

It reminds me of several of DHs family members who refer to "they" on a daily if not hourly basis. " They" are never defined but it's as if there's a power out there that is out to get the family member personally.

" They" need to sort out the M25. " They" need to sort out parking at Gatwick.
" They" need to sort out potholes.
" They" need to sort out chocolate bars getting smaller.

At some point the EU became
" they". Probably been said before.

merrymouse · 27/11/2018 08:43

Just catching up on Cameron:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/david-cameron-does-not-want-political-comeback-say-friends

But Cameron, according to the friend, remains “a believer in the idea of public service” should a suitable public role emerge in the future

Noblesse Oblige I suppose. Apparently the book will be out next Autumn.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 08:48

Jesus Christ Piers Corbyn is a horror show.

Corbyn

Banned from the Labour Party
Climate change denier
Owns a weather prediction company which the Express use but the Times and Guardian boycott and criticise as being a complete pile of crap (which is quite the achievement for a weather forecaster)
He believes and promotes the idea that the sun triggers earthquakes meaning they can be predicted, something described by a science magazine as equivalent to a faith healer.

He is not only eccentric but yeah, anti science and pro conspiracy theory.

I bet Christmas with the Corbyns has been fun over the years.

Confused
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RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 08:51

Apparently the book will be out next Autumn.

Of course it will be. By then people will be looking back sympathically at the Cameron years, saying how great they were after all. Then he can relaunch his political career and try and become Foreign Sec.

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TatianaLarina · 27/11/2018 09:03

just don't get it - this shit deal isn't a deal, its a method of giving ourselves time to make a deal.

Or in the Tories’ case buying them time to prepare for no deal. Securing a transition that May’s successor can walk away from.

Buteo · 27/11/2018 09:14

Jeez, that webchat poster talking about how her DH works for Ofwat so she knows all about water treatment.

Er no love, you really don’t. Honestly, we don’t treat drinking water with salt Hmm, and there’s a reason why water abstracted from boreholes is still treated.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 09:20

I wonder when a couple more 'suspected poisonings' might happen?
I am not suggesting anyone should be hurt.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 09:26

Buteo, Glad you picked that up about salt. My chemistry lessons were a long time ago but I think the chemicals that are used are classed as 'salts' so in that respect would not be inaccurate. Most tend to think of salt as being Sodium chloride that we put on our chips with (primarily) acetic acid?

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 09:28

:Vinegar is an aqueous solution of acetic acid and trace chemicals that may include flavorings.:

jasjas1973 · 27/11/2018 09:31

Getting mixed up with Chlorine and Chloride, similar to confusing the ECJ with ECHR, a common brexitier mistake