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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

OP posts:
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bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 20:52

More problematic, sorry

merrymouse · 26/11/2018 20:55

Do you think he knows that this isn't the final deal?

RedToothBrush · 26/11/2018 20:55

Well.

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 20:57

The more "frictionless" you want trade to be, the more it has to be regulated before it gets to the borders

The SM has the free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour – the "four freedoms"

The EU countries included "labour", so that self-supporting people had the same freedom to move as big money did.
It was important to the political stability of poorer countries, while their economies were still developing within the SM, that their workers could travel elsewhere for jobs.

In fact, FOM has over 80% support in the EU, with very little opposition
The controversy is only over some non-EEA citizens - from N Africa / Middle East - who are not entitled to FOM anyway.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 26/11/2018 20:57
lonelyplanetmum · 26/11/2018 20:57

*I see Trump's weighed in
*
The No 10 machine and TM
admit the next fortnight is the marketing drive to sell the WA and declaration. Large platforms constructed outside WM, TV debate etc etc.

So presumably some kind of briefing is also delivered to the White house through official channels. At least Trump co operates when briefed I suppose?

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 20:57

Trump is wrecking the USA

lonelyplanetmum · 26/11/2018 20:58

I've read the article now! Clearly he ignored any briefing and did his own thing!

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 21:00

Trump is furious that he and his mates probably won't be able to loot the UK, or destroy the EU

which were the 2 aims of the US & UK hard right for Brexit

lonelyplanetmum · 26/11/2018 21:03

In fact it's really confusing. The elements of the WA and the declaration have been knocking around for a while now. The US would be kept updated or US intelligence would be on it.

So why is he commenting right now exactly when TM has embarked upon 10 days of an overt publicity drive.

merrymouse · 26/11/2018 21:05

Isn't Trump trying to get planning permission for loads of houses in Aberdeen at the moment?

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 26/11/2018 21:11

Lots to catch up on in this thread but just wanted to share this from Jeremy Corbyn’s brother. He appears to have achieved peak-batshit.

@Piers_Corbyn

#EU=#4thReich THE ONLY WAY IS #NoDealBrexit. On 29Mar2019 all vestiges - flags, symbols, anything of EU in UK, must be destroyed. #HM #RoyalNavy must SEIZE back our #Fishing waters & remainist #MPs forced to resign. #TheresaMay is WORSE than Marshall #Petain of #Vichy #France
Confused

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 21:15

Seriously if anyone thinks that Trump and/or Putin are not holding the strings for the puppets here. Well what can I say.

merrymouse · 26/11/2018 21:25

Trump is a puppet.

lonelyplanetmum · 26/11/2018 21:37

I assume this has been read ?

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/politics/this-brilliant-response-to-theresa-mays-brexit-letter-is-going-viral/26/11/

"Mrs May you have helped to divide this country to such an extent that families and friends are now no longer talking to each other, you have managed to negotiate a deal far worse than the one we had and all to keep together a party of millionaires, Eton Bullingdon boys, spivs and WI harridans. Your party conserves nothing. It has sold everything off in the name of the free market.

You could have kept our industries going with investment and development – Germany managed it. But no – The Free Market won so Sunderland, Barnsley, Hamilton etc could all go to the devil"

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 22:09

UK voters are not politically aware. (many I mean)

Is this a problem now? I'm talking FPTP that stifles any discourse, well what's the point really now.

prettybird · 26/11/2018 22:16

Trump's petulance tirade just demonstrates the truth of my earlier comment: the one positive of the WA is the protection it gives against hasty deals with - in particular - the USA Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 22:17

Holy crap, babooshka He's incoherent
A manic batshit tendency in the Corbyn family - note "forcing Remainist MPs to resign"
I wonder if JC is secretly thinking the hard left equivalent

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 22:21

Yes, that's a big reason the WA is better than No Deal:
it means no TTIP-on-steroids

After No Deal, a desperate UK just bends over for Trump - and any other leader - and hope he uses lube

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 22:24

French Embassy UK@FranceintheUK

2/2 None of the parties want to activate, let alone remain in, the backstop.
The priority is to conclude a future relationship that protects everyone’s interests between now and the end of 2020.
#BrexitDeal #Brexit

ElenadeClermont · 26/11/2018 22:38

From John Crace:
And it was completely absurd to argue that the UK would be worse off by leaving the EU, because there were so many other ways to measure prosperity than people being broke. Just think of the feelgood factor of dressing in rags. Blessed are the poor, for they shall disinherit Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/26/pms-new-brexit-mantra-everything-is-agreed-although-nothing-is-agreed?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 22:42

The cost of different Brexits

www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Report%20Brexit%20-%202018-11-26.pdf

NIESR@NIESRorg

‪#GDP to be 4% lower in the longer term than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU ‬
‪- Here is our #Economic Assessment of the Government’s Proposed #BrexitDeal‬
...
NIESR Retweeted Festival of Ideeas@FestivalofIdeas

This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales
or the output of the financial services industry in London.

This is equivalent to a loss of 3 per cent in GDP per head, worth around £1,000 per person per annum to people in the UK.’

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.
SwedishEdith · 26/11/2018 22:42

The Piers Corbyn comment is bad enough but it's is also a retweet of Gerard Batten.

Talkstotrees · 26/11/2018 22:45

I’m trying to understand - was he taking the piss out of Batten?