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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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Jason118 · 27/11/2018 09:33

Sodium hypochlorite, sulphur dioxide, chlorine - all used to provide clean water.

lonelyplanetmum · 27/11/2018 09:38

It's amazing Piers Corbyn hasn't been more of an escaping closet skelton to be honest.

I know anti semitism is an issue but perhaps the press could vary the focus on that and spice up their Labour Party news with a little bit of Piers too? Only needed if Labour edge ahead in the polls of course.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 09:42

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Row brewing with No10 due to release Geoffrey Cox's legal advice on the deal. The advice on the backstop given to cabinet was "damning" and essentially said UK cannot get out, according to cabinet sources. But Cox's political judgment was that a deal is better than no deal...

According to someone who has seen the latest No10 grid, there is an entry for "legal position". Sources suspect the govt could attempt to publish a summary which stresses Cox's political position. Will No10 be honest and reveal the legal advice that ministers found so damning?

OP posts:
ElenadeClermont · 27/11/2018 09:44

It can now be revealed that UAE claims Hedges’ release could have been secured in the summer but was prolonged partly due to insufficient high-level assurances by the Foreign Office that he was not a spy.

It has been suggested that Boris Johnson, who was foreign secretary until 9 July, was not seen as a reliable pair of hands after he bungled aspects of the Foreign Office efforts to release Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.

Tejada has said she was “very cautious” about Johnson and concerned his “flippant comments would hurt Matt’s case”.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/27/matthew-hedges-jailed-academic-returns-to-uk-after-uae-pardon

How can Johnson carry on and not hang his head in shame all the time?!

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 27/11/2018 09:47

Article 50 case being live tweeted here

twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1067335420449570816

Adam Fleming
‏*@adamfleming*
The Article 50 case at the ECJ has begun. Lawyer for the British MSPs, MPs and MEPs arguing that requiring unanimity to revoke A50 would "ride roughshod" over EU principles, meaning a state could be forced out against its will if it changed its mind.

DGRossetti · 27/11/2018 09:57

Thomas Cook trying hard to avoid the "B" word, as bookings slump.

Unless they mean "Beatwave" ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46355639

bbc.co.uk
Thomas Cook still suffering from heatwave
2-3 minutes

Thomas Cook has warned that its annual profits are set to be about £30m lower than expected, its second profit warning in two months.

Earnings at its tour operator unit were £88m lower in the year to September, as people delayed booking holidays because of the prolonged heatwave at home.

It also said its bookings for this winter were 3% down on last year and suspended its dividend.

Shares in the company dropped by 28% when the markets opened.

Chief executive Peter Fankhauser said it had been a "disappointing year".

He added: "The UK was particularly hard hit with very high levels of promotional activity coming on top of an already competitive market for holidays to Spain.

"Looking ahead, we must learn the lessons from 2018 and go into the new year focused on where we can make a difference to customers in our core holiday offering."
Thomas Cook share price graphic

The heatwave and mild winter weather are also having an impact on bookings for winter holidays, with bookings for the 2018-19 season in continental Europe down by 2%.

Fewer people have arranged holidays for the Canary Islands, with holidaymakers switching to cheaper trips to Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia instead.

Thomas Cook's underlying earnings will be £250m to the end of September, £58m lower than in 2017.

Additional charges, including disruption to flights, were partly responsible for this decline, the company said.

Despite the slump in holiday bookings, the company's airline business recorded profit growth of £35m and its future bookings are 11% ahead of last year.

Sales of holidays to its own-brand hotels were up by 15%.

missmoon · 27/11/2018 10:01

Article 50 case being live tweeted here

Also here, for a second view on it (FT correspondent): twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1067325301225648128

I'm surprised there isn't more interest, no Guardian correspondent, for instance...

DGRossetti · 27/11/2018 10:06

Not really sure why - according to May this deal is what we are getting - there needs to be any debate on it. Time (and resources) that might be used a lot more effectively in say - helping out in a homeless shelter.

But, if this is the way of the future, I for one will embrace it. I've already written letters to my local council, and HMRC demanding a debate about next years council and income tax. Even though it's a done deal.

This fucking country ...

jasjas1973 · 27/11/2018 10:19

Some of the corruption being used to swing MPs behind her deal are frankly criminal, Private Members bills promised, Peerages and even an amendment of a dangerous subset of firearm dropped.

In any other walk of life, bribing officials to sign off deals would result in jail.

We do need to consider that dropping manifesto promises either before or during a Parliament has never bothered a Government previously, so why is Brexit so important to her? and in particular this deal?
If M.Fallon a party loyalist is set against it, the deal must be atrocious and i really do hope Parliament at last, stands up to her.

mostdays · 27/11/2018 10:25

i really do hope Parliament at last, stands up to her.

I think we will finally see a bunch of Tories discover that the long bony thing running down the middle of their back is their spine. But that enough Labour MPs will forget what theirs is is get it through.

jasjas1973 · 27/11/2018 10:32

Perhaps, but when the talk starts to be about Mays future, then Labour MPs will see it as a possibility for a GE.

I think the Fallon intervention is a turning point (assuming he goes through with it) the anti deal feeling across the Tory party appears to run deep :)

Gumpendorf · 27/11/2018 10:38

How can Johnson carry on and not hang his head in shame all the time?!

This. And that May kept an incompetent buffoon in a sensitive post because it was politically expedient. It's unforgivable.

mostdays · 27/11/2018 10:43

I hope you are right jasjas!

Ebony0 · 27/11/2018 10:46

This reply has been deleted

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 27/11/2018 10:46

Joanna Cherry QC MP
‏*@joannaccherry*
We resume & Richard Keen QC Advocate General for UK Govt confirms to the court that U.K. Govt has no position on whether #Art50 can be unilaterally revoked!!! #CJEU #StopBrexit #PeoplesVote

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 12:03

jas Those MPs who most strongly oppose this WA are a mixture of Remainers - who ntbo want to Remain instead ! -
and Brexit Ultras - who want their Bonfire of Regulations, USA FTA and an end to the Welfare State

plus of course, those who want to advance their career by pandering to the party members who are batshit Brexiters, as well as to the 100 MPs who are strongly / mildly Brexity

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 12:09

Current thinking is still a 50% chance that the WA passes at the 2nd attempt,
especially if the failure of a 1st attempt leads to business / market / Sterling panic

imo, the best thing about this WA is that it has pushed so many politicians to finally start seriously talking about Norway++ and other options
2 years later than they should have, but at least there are a lot of frantic discussions between parties.

Big problem:
Corbyn just sees all this as his chance for power
To either force a GE now, or in the disastrous aftermath of a No Deal crash

DGRossetti · 27/11/2018 12:25

Corbyn just sees all this as his chance for power

If the past two years have taught us anything, it's that nobody - nobody is going to get anything remotely close to what they wanted out of Brexit. Corbyn would do well to factor that into his plans. If Theresa May couldn't get what she wanted (whatever that was) and she's PM then what chance does he have of getting what he wants.

We have all - every man woman and child - been shafted right royally here.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 12:33

Keir Starmer's interview on SKY yesterday irritated me (not difficult) by saying that Labour could have got a better deal. That says everything and nothing. Getting an extra ten quid off the £39 Billion is technically 'better'.
If Labour had any workable plans, where are they?
Not that the Tories have any real plans for 30th March either.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 12:40

As I forecast, at the ECJ both the European Council & the Commission oppose unilateral revocation:^
^
^Adam Fleming@adamfleming

Now it's the European Council which says the only unilateral bit of A50 is the letter from the departing country.
If it could withdraw the notification and resubmit then it could "keep the ball rolling" until it got a better deal at the EU's expense.^
....
Now the @EUCommission argues a state could act in an "abusive" manner by stopping and restarting the clock again and again, creating "endless uncertainty" which the 2-year time limit in A50 was clearly designed to guard against.
....
The @EUCommission lawyer adds that extending A50 timeframe needs unanimity so it's reasonable that revocation does too.
....
And she says Vienna Convention on withdrawing from treaties doesn't apply here because the EU's treaties have their own withdrawal mech
...
The meaningful vote doesn't mean anything to the EU, says Mr Legal for the European Council, because it's an internal domestic matter. ^
Instead, the EU27 deals with the UK government and any communication from them "will not remain unanswered."
...
And it's done.
Decision will come "quickly" but date to be announced... at a later date.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 12:56

Ukip MEP Patrick O'Flynn quits party in protest at growing Tommy Robinson links

i.e. the convicted fraudster Yaxley-Lennon

Oddly, O'Flynn is joining the Continuity SDP - the handful of eccentrics / diehards, who didn't merge with the LDems decades ago and who no have almost no elected representatives at local level, or any other MEP or MP

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tommy-robinson-ukip-patrick-oflynn-resigns-mep-sdp-gerard-batten-edl-islam-a8653816.html

merrymouse · 27/11/2018 13:00

If Labour had any workable plans, where are they?

Exactly

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 13:04

I am pretty sure that if Labour had any credible plans early on then the EU negotiators would have leaned on 'Our Theresa' to at least make it a 3 way discussion (well a very lopsided one but making a decent deal more practical).

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 13:05

Evening Standard comment: Can Mrs May back into a new Brexit consensus?

Osbourne means Norway++, but has his usual digs first at the PM who sacked him

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-can-mrs-may-back-into-a-new-brexit-consensus-a4000171.htmll^

A second referendum, while fervently fought for by many, still lacks broad support among the political classes.

That would change instantly if Mr Corbyn backed it but everything he says suggests he won’t.
< he's as stubborn as May and much more stupid >

That leaves membership of an EEA/EFTA-style arrangement like Norway or Switzerland, where we stay in the customs union and single market. It’s what the Evening Standard has proposed since May last year.

Mistigri · 27/11/2018 13:16

Oddly, O'Flynn is joining the Continuity SDP

I'm not sure this is as odd as it sounds, though I know nothing about O'Flynn so this is more of a general comment.

The original kippers were eurosceptic old school liberals like Richard North (and my dad). Sceptical about the euro more than about the single market, broadly in favour of decentralisation and local democracy, not rabidly anti-immigrant. So decamping to a small, grassroots, centrist party might make sense especially if he thinks it's a good place to pursue "soft" eurosceptic, small-government policies.