Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

jas No Deal is the automatic default for A50, so of course it can happen,
if the govt don't blink and the HoC can't get a majority of votes for something else

I won't believe No Deal will probably happen, unless we are still logjammed in about mid-February, at which stage I would switch to supporting the WA

Going by the abysmal performance of both govt and opposition so far, at that late stage, I would NOT trust them to "rescue" us
Corbyn either changes policy before then, or he has clearly decided that a No Deal catastrophe is his chance to have "real socialism"

Corbyn has been as much a problem as May in this whole aga.

No Deal would destroy the remains of the Welfare State and we would be handed over to the US to loot

Think why the ERG and the hard right are so eager for No Deal and so furiously against the WA.
That should tell you which has the higher risk of inequality and of being ruled by US billionaires

No other outcome is anywhere near that bad, certainly not a CU that has lots of rules coopied from the SM
I don't give a damn about "sovereignty" and I think a permanent NI backstop of some kind will be mandatory whatever happens.

Noone trusts the UK

You're going to die painfully in 6 months,
or there is treatment that means you may either die in 3-4 years, or mostly recover, or partly recover

If it goes down the wire to February and we*re still logjammed, then I'd take the 2nd option

Thanks, red That sounds a horrendous constiutional mess,
unknown territory.

The question is whether May - or indeed the HoC - would ever dare go there

Brexit is taking us to places I never dreamed we'd be.

Ian Dunt @
Notice how everyone now accepts it was foolish to trigger Article 50 without a plan. At the time, people were unanimous that it had to be triggered as soon as possible.

Sorry Ian Dunt, I disagree, people were not unanimous. Frothy Leavers, yes. Politicians of all colours, maybe. Most sane, normal people I know where utterly bemused by it.

were uttlerly bemused.

{oting n this deal IS punishing people! which is something i definitely do not want, more inequality will kill of this country.}
The UK has had 2 1/2 years to come up with ANY plan that does not attempt to destroy the EU, and FAILED miserably.
As a British citizen for many years, now in the EU I am embarrassed by the total incompetence, infighting, wriggling, lying bone heads in government and a fair number in opposition who don't even have the decency to organise a half workable plan.
The UK voted to leave but can't be arsed to organise it. If it wasn't for having many family and friends in the UK I would be voting for the hardest of Brexits with all the mayhem that would/will likely ensue.
Some on here have been saying the EU is 'punishing' the UK. They have simply restated the rules that the UK signed up to, and helped amend. It is Leave F$%^^wits that are punishing me and so may others. Am I angry, you bet.

May promised a meaningful vote, not a rubber stamp ceremony!

So ? She's lied consistently.

Also, what is the difference between a vote, and a "meaningful" vote ?

Meaningful has more letters to it and it sounds more important.

But how does she bring the WA back to parliament without changing it? In which case the EU won't agree?

Well quite. Although Barnier is apparently on call...

... Which perhaps isn't really helping May either.

It remains to be seen how big the gap between how far the EU are prepared to go and how far the Labour Party and the ERG are prepared to push it and whether May can find a way forward with all three.

Luke James @ LEJ88
Commission spokesperson tells me that Michel Barnier and his team will remain available 24/7, which presumably wouldn’t be the case if it really was this deal or no deal as Juncker says

Q: Can you confirm that Mr Barnier and his team remain available 24/7 for negotiations?

Spokesperson: "Michel Barnier and his team will be, of course, around for as long as the Article 50 process is ongoing and, of course, available 24/7 as always so far"

Reaction from both sides of the Commons

Keir Starmer: "These comments are an important reminder that if the deal is voted down by parliament then that is not the end of the debate"

Jacob Rees-Mogg: It “rather undermines the prime minister’s claim that no other deal is possible"

Full story: Barnier remains available 24/7 for talks even though Brexit deal agreed

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/barnier-remains-available-24-7-negotiations-even-though-brexit-deal-agreed-135340295.html?guccounter=1
Barnier remains available 24/7 for talks even though Brexit deal agreed

The 24/7 availability of Barnier and his team comment might be more to do with the wording of the political declaration which isn't worth the paper it is written on anyway as it could be superseded for any number of reasons , rather than the WA.

Maybe they are manning the gift shop. Morcambe and Wise style 'I used to be in the EU, now look at me' mugs and 'T' shirts.

Pretty is doesn't matter if that's the case. What matters is what Mogg and St armer THINK Barnier being on 24/7 standby means.

The lack of a grasp of the reality and the difference between what the EU understands compared to the British interpretation has not been a strong point of UK politicians in the last 2 and a half years.

Top EU diplomat gets in touch to say this isn't May's fault and ultimately the Tory party is to blame: 'She didn't make mistakes, she played the hand she was dealt by a deeply divided party. She mustn't be blamed for that. What options did she have given the party's red lines?'

I agree with that.
I d8nt particularly like TM but I think she did very well with the hand she had (it’s just that red lines she was pushed to have made it impossible to have a deal that made sense).
I also agree that there is a need of reallignement in political parties. Neither the Tories nor labour represent people now.
Add to that the fact that a big part of the electrorate is never represented (LD an the Greens actually represent a big proportion of the voters but have nearly no MPs) and you have a recipe for disaster imo.

Brexit is just a symptom, the symptom of a major constitutional crisis as well as a political crisis.

That’s also why brexit seems impossible to solve. It’s not solving brexit that will solve the real issues underneath iyswim

I agree Red - it's just yet another example of the self-centredenss, blinkerdness, arrogance, hubris (etc, etc) of the English (and yes, in this case, I do mean that ) politicians

The "Don't they know who we are?" and "They need us more than we need them" attitudes.

I d8nt particularly like TM but I think she did very well with the hand she had

Bollocks. She had a plethora - a cornucopia - of options, if the question she was answering was "How can I make sure we do what's best for the country as a whole ?"

Instead, because she is a self-serving, rather dim, nasty misogynist racist, she actually tried to answer the question "How can I make sure that the Tory party, and my husbands rich mates do alright out of this ?".

Now - redolent with irony, and echoing the idea that if you sacrifice liberty for security you will probably end up with neither - we're in a situation where the Tory party isn't saved, and the country had to be fucked to achieve it.

Please, can we stop the "well done Theresa" and "Poor Theresa" whinings ? Just remember her scuttling to the Queen after the election, and remember she lied to the Queen too.

Der Speigel is very impressed by Mrs May's achievement - the speech tag translates as 'Success!' or 'I did it!'

.

DG FOM is a tremendous loss,
especially for those Brits who aren't in great demand by employers and who would find it tougher to work in the E27.

However re the "level playing field" which copies over much of the SM rules:

giving up UK govt power to remove workers' rights, health & safety, environmental standards
... that's the good part of the deal for me

and if a new PM decides for Norway++, we can regain FOM

In No Deal, the govt would start a race to the bottom, the ERG "Bonfire of Red Tape" to make us Singapore-on-Thames.
No more welfare state
That's a far worse alternative

As DGR has just commented, May is a {nasty misogynist racist}.
I have just been listening to her in HoC, I presume it is live.
A woman MP who has a German (I think) husband who has been practicing in the UK for 30 years was given what sounded like a brush off but worse implying that if EU citizens were not so economically worthwhile they are 'nothing'. Badly phrased I am so disgusted with what she said.
I suppose the other aspect to this is that the Home Office will be 'selecting' EU citizens that would be allowed in. By extension, they would be wealthy professionals, probably involved in employing British nationals. They are being 'exceptionalised' but would effect be 'ruling' over British workers. I am not saying they shouldn't but it does not seem quite in the spirit of 'taking back control.

Good summary chart, showing the possible outcomes and the economic consequences of each

Fabian Zuleegg@FabianZuleeg*

Here is a reminder of the choices for the second phase in the negotiations - with no deal still on the cards

DG FOM is a tremendous loss, especially for those Brits who aren't in great demand by employers and who would find it tougher to work in the E27.

I know. But I'm a dual EU/UK national, so not sure how it may or may not affect me yet.

I do know that I would really need to use my UK passport from now on - especially when it goes blue. I've used my Italian passport a couple of times now, as proof of ID for agencies.

@adampayne26
Here’s the letter Chief Whip Julian Smith’s has sent to MPs outlining the key dates over the next few weeks. Brexit meaningful vote and debate: Tuesday 4th-Tuesday 11th December.