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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

OP posts:
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bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 17:31

There is no point looking back (thinking of May and the choices she had as HS at the time, but chose not to do anything re uncontrolled immigration).

Anyway it is all in la la land now.

Norway ++ etc, is fine, still needs contributions, still has Freedom of Movement, still has all the EU rules, but still has NO voice at the table.

Norway is very very rich country. They don't care. Does UK?

Would staying in be better?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 26/11/2018 17:38

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Meaningful vote confirmed by govt sources for Tuesday 11th Dec

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 17:41

We need the definition of a "Meaningful Vote"

Does anyone know what that is?

prettybird · 26/11/2018 17:43

Norway has no official vote - but spends a lot on lobbyists in Brussels, so it does have a voice of sorts.

Talkstotrees · 26/11/2018 17:45

That’s the day of the PR lobby so I’ll be in London Smile

www.makevotesmatter.org.uk/local-meetings/2018/10/5/peoples-lobby-for-proportional-representation

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 17:50

prettybird, no vote no voice.

Lobbying is what every country in the 28 (soon to be 27) do daily.

I am talking about the rules surrounding places like Norway withing the EU Council and Commission, and Parliament.

But there will be no UK MEPs next May anyway. Such a shame.

1tisILeClerc · 26/11/2018 17:56

The UK can have Farage all to themselves, A 'plus' for the EU.

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 17:56

Talkstotrees,

The FPTP system is the antithesis of democracy IMV. I know others will disagree.

But when you are faced with a safe seat, a Red or a Blue seat what is the point of anything, just shrug your shoulders and either vote for your candidate or abstain or just not vote.

There is no other choice for people or parties who might actually represent the people is there? And forget about UKIP. Busted flush.

We need PR to help us on our way to actual democracy. Well IMV, so don't shout at me yet, thanks!

prettybird · 26/11/2018 18:13

I don't disagree with you bofsy - I think it is a crap alternative. But at the moment, I don't even see the UK (or rather, the idiots in Westminster) even considering lobbying. Hmm

They seem to think "Don't they know who we are?" and "They need us more than we need them" is sufficient - or/and, like Nadine Dorries are horrified at thought that we won't have MEPs or representation after we leave ShockConfused

frankiestein401 · 26/11/2018 18:17

norway is a very rich country
because they managed their north sea dividend, rather than spending it to destroy the industrial base of the nation. Yet another folly for which the tories will never be held to account.

prettybird · 26/11/2018 18:22

Re FPTP, I strongly agree with you bofsy

Ironically, even though the number of SNP MPs would drop under a proper PR system, they still support a change (not that they want to be at WM at all Wink).

The whole system at WM doesn't encourage constructive politics, with the childish febrile Yah Boo shenanigans in the HoC, which is deliberately designed to be confrontational and with the chamber not big enough for all the MPs.

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 18:23

Prettybird,

The sad thing is that a good lot of our 39bn contribution during the Transition period is to fund the pensions of our soon to be redundant MEPS!

OK I know that is a bit facetious, but still. Farage will be funded for life!

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 18:23

bofsy I agree with you that FPTP has caused a lot of our political disfunction and disconnection.

Labour and Tories love it though, because they each get their turn to take over the trough and stick their snouts in.

1tisILeClerc · 26/11/2018 18:24

Moving the opposing benches closer and reintroducing swords might liven it up a bit.

Talkstotrees · 26/11/2018 18:29

bofsy1, why would I shout at you?

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 18:37

Oh dear,

Sorry@talkstotrees.... I was making a general comment. Sorry,

I would not shout at you personally.

prettybird · 26/11/2018 18:40

frankiestein101 - worse, they used the North Sea dividend to fund the overheating of the South East, while the industries of the North of England, Wales and Scotland were decimated with nothing put in their place Angry

And then they get accused of being scroungers, living off the SE. Angry

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 18:42

Big Choc.

Voters don't seem to care. But why would they? There is really no choice anymore. But seems we are stuck with it. So it's either Red or Blue.

No wonder many people have no interest in politics anymore. They have no voice to change the status quo.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 18:48

Hence many voted to blow it all up, the first chance they were given

bellinisurge · 26/11/2018 18:56

@1tisILeClerc - each side of the chamber is marked with a line on the floor that you are not allowed to cross. I think the gap between the two lines is longer than a sword's reach for just that reason.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 19:07

Brussels opinion is sad, but satisfied with the WA because it would be an orderly exit,
that doesn't cross any of their red lines.

Yes, the UK govt were taken to the cleaners, but that what happens when your negotiating heads are ignorant, arrogant & lazy.

Fabian Zuleegg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre)
As expected. Now to HoC.
My guess now:
more than 50% that deal goes through in the end (on 2nd vote after econ chaos if rejected on 1st),
around 40% no deal now &
less than 5% for people's vote.
< so 5% for Norway++ ? >
This was easy phase of negotiations next much harder & no deal looms again at the end
....
Even if suspecting that this deal is probably as good as it gets, it is difficult to listen to this list of imaginary benefits without reacting:
what this deal delivers is not real control over anything but it allows for an orderly Brexit.
That is the sum total of its benefits
....
EuropeanPolicyCentre@epc_eu
"The best deal, why, because it preserves all the red lines set by the EU after the referendum."
@FabianZuleeg*
But of course, "there's something in there for everybody not to like." #EUCO #BrexiSummit

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2018 19:08

Sorry, no idea why that bolded 😳

jasjas1973 · 26/11/2018 19:13

Which is exactly why it must be rejected.

bofsy1 · 26/11/2018 19:18

Norway + sounds ok to get things through. But there is the vexed Q of free movement and contributions to EU with no voice at the table though.

For some reason I get the impression that Norway does not have influxes of EU immigrants either does it? Does anyone know why this is, despite their observation of Free Movement.

Maybe they observe the rules, and if you cannot self fund, off you go. I dunno.