Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Lidington & Barwell to brief Labour MPs about deal at 8pm tonight. Lab source reminds me last time govt did this, @BorisJohnson resigned halfway through meet. “We’re hoping it will be this entertaining this time around” #brexit

Ross Kempsell @ rosskempsell
“Gavin Barwell swore blind to Tory MPs a billion times in private meetings in No 10 during the last 18 mths that we cannot do Brexit on Labour votes as it’ll split the Conservative Party. Now he’s having them into Downing Street to persuade them” - Brexit source

There is NO possibility to renegotiate this WA, or anything based on a CU
Corbyn & others are talking bollocks there

If the deal is voted down, then anything is possible e.g a GE changes everything, the EU do not want a no-deal and neither does the UK.

May promised a meaningful vote, not a rubber stamp ceremony!

I just struggle to understand why any remainer would support her WA, once this deal is voted through, May (but most certainly the Tories) will remain in power until 2022 during that time the Gov will be in hock to the DUP and the ERG, an EFTA deal is unlikely to be the result, in fact its impossible given FOM must end, so that leaves a arms length FTA

Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar
NEW: Sorry to disappoint those of you who were looking forward to Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's visit in early December (as per No 10 leaked grid). But sources tell me it has been POSTPONED until new year.

So the WA vote is set for 12th Dec and the Japanese PM who was supposed to be visiting in December has his trip postponed.

Totally unconnected of course.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Sadly doesn't look like we'll be getting Liam Fox's much-anticipated speech backing the deal this week (per leaked No10 grid). He is off to Israel instead.

Dr Liam Fox MP @liamfox
Speech is on Friday, hope you can make it!

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Liam Fox will be making a speech in support of the deal this week! The grid lives

Well that should be interesting

More from the release of the government's A50 case arguments:

^Tomas Hirst
‏*@tomashirstecon*^

The UK government's objection to finding out whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Art.50 is that...it might change the option set and thereby influence how MPs vote. Umm...

Nick Boles MP @nickboles
The Norway option has evolved in response to feedback from EFTA states and EU experts as well as understanding of the position of the different parties in Parliament. Full details of Norway Plus are set out here:
betterbrexit.org.uk

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Even @TheSun is calling for an end to the 100,000 immigration target “that the PM - and only the PM - still thinks is a good idea”

Interesting...

David Ingram @david_ingram
"Twenty-six funds dumped their entire stakes in Facebook Inc. in the third quarter, according to a Goldman Sachs Group analysis."

If the government did ignore the HoC vote to revoke, then would the penalty just be potentially a no-confidence vote, i.e. nothing new there ?

Or would the Supreme Court actually order the government to revoke ?

Sorry this is a full on news dump. Trying to do a bit of catching up.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Still can see little real option to the Deal or a No Deal Brexit.

But for the first time since before the notification, there seems a non-trivial chance of it not now going ahead.

So that's my kiss of death for Remain.

What convinced me that seemingly impossible things could happen was Alan Hutton's goal yesterday.

If such a goal could happen, Remain could happen.

Rowena Kay @ rowena_kay
What convinced me was, weirdly enough, the Matt Hancock leak from cabinet. They've all sat there and been told no deal could easily kill people. Almost impossible not to swerve when driving that fast at a brick wall.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/25/labour-plays-waiting-game-over-second-brexit-referendum-corbyn

Labour’s leadership is determined to hold out against backing a second referendum on Brexit
unless all other options have been exhausted
.....
Labour strategists believe they cannot get to the 45% or so of the vote they would need to win the next election
if they are seen to represent only what they jokingly refer to as “Remoania”.
...
Some hold out the hope that Labour could pick up many of the leave-backing voters who feel sold out by the prime minister’s deal.

“They’re available to us provided we don’t sound like remainers,”
one shadow cabinet minister said, adding that
the party must also guard against the risk that these voters switch to Ukip

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/migrant-nhs-fraud-european-health-insurance-card_uk_5be0d4d8e4b09d43e3220496/?m2=&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage&__twitter_impression=true
Exclusive: Government Accused Of 'Scaremongering' Over Migrant NHS Fraud
Few cases of EU insurance card abuse found despite claim of £19m-a-year loss.

But a Freedom of Information response from the Department of Health shows the NHS’s fraud division has only discovered potential seven cases of fraud in the last three years, and just two definite cases.

And the blame game starts in earnest

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
Where did HMG go wrong in the Brexit negotiation? ⁦**@nick**_gutteridge⁩ and I detail the 5 key mistakes today (spoiler: it’s far from all Theresa May’s fault)

jas Most Remainers would only support her WA when / if is becomes clear that the alternative is No Deal

The WA offers several alternatives that make it vastly better than No Deal
Yes, all would tie in the UK with a backstop, but that would be the case with any deal now, maybe even with Revoke

I can't understand why any Remainer would want the disaster of No Deal, IF Remain prove impossible
Is that to punish people for not doing what you want ?

Remain would be better than all other options, but Labour are very far away from backing this

Jo Maugham @jolyonmaugham
Under pressure, the Govt has finally published the text of its (failed) application for permission to appeal to the Supreme Court. What is significant is that the Govt formally recognises MPs can simply direct it to revoke the Article 50 notice.

@red Hence my question upthread abot what this gov admission eans:

If the government did ignore the HoC vote to revoke, then would the penalty just be potentially a no-confidence vote, i.e. nothing new there ?

Or would the Supreme Court actually order the government to revoke ?

Surely if it revoked A50 for whatever reason following a Commons vote to that effect, we'd have some egg on face and hurt feelings. But not an immediate economic catastrophe .
Not saying that hurt feelings aren't difficult to manage and create other problems.

BCF - Sorry for not agreeing with you :)

May is just bouncing the country into her deal and judging by your comments, doing a very good job of it.
Voting n this deal IS punishing people! which is something i definitely do not want, more inequality will kill of this country.

No deal wont happen, there are better options, such as the Norway plus option, a GE or (unlikely) a PV
BUT once the WA is through, we have 2 to 4 years of even more uncertainty, less investment, more dis investment and as i said with her at the helm, we could end up with no deal!

What is the point of a GE?
The EU have said pretty much if not completely what the 'deal' is so unless a GE could guarantee a MASSIVE change of heart, the EU won't budge so it is only a matter of the UK rearranging the deckchairs (again).
Although unpalatable compared to having remained (the conditions have deteriorated over the 2 years so we are not where we were) it would be far better to take the deal and hit the ground running with properly thought out negotiations on 30th March.

.....Properly thought out negotiations! thats hilarious! the same fools are in power until 2022 at the very least ! what on earth makes you think they'll behave any differently to the last 3 years?

A Labour Gov, starting a fresh do not have DUP/ERG issues not a bunch of hardcore brexitiers in charge,

Sure, any political change adds in more delay, however this process will take years and its affects last for decades, it needs to be right if brexit happens.

That would be a constitutional crisis. But it theory it could go to the courts. And potentially it wonder if it would also count as Contempt of Parliament too. Further than that if an MP acting in the name of the Crown (by virtue of being the Prime Minister and representative of Her Majesty's Government) against the expressed wishes of Parliament would have further ramifications. I would ponder if this would be a betrayal of the Crown against the people (in the form of their elected representatives)

I'm actually thinking that in that framing, the closest parallel might actually be Charles I.

Charles was accused of treason against England by using his power to pursue his personal interest rather than the good of the country. The charge stated that he, "for accomplishment of such his designs, and for the protecting of himself and his adherents in his and their wicked practices, to the same ends hath traitorously and maliciously levied war against the present Parliament, and the people therein represented", and that the "wicked designs, wars, and evil practices of him, the said Charles Stuart, have been, and are carried on for the advancement and upholding of a personal interest of will, power, and pretended prerogative to himself and his family, against the public interest, common right, liberty, justice, and peace of the people of this nation."

I'm thinking that such a parallel given how divided the country is would not be good.

The other alternative might be to consider whether the Queen has the power to remove the authority of the Crown from a sitting PM. Again that route is not pretty.

All of this is highly spectaculative and I'm not convinced that even May would dare to defy parliament (indeed her past actions have always been to expressly defer to parliament much to her annoyance)

I think the short version of the above is simply that however it was handled would mark a monumental cluster fuck with potential ramifications that frankly I'd rather not think about!

I suppose the one advantage of the WA is that it means that the US in particular and other countries can't bounce the UK, as a distressed negotiator, into trade deals that would be to the UK's detriment.

Ian Dunt @iandunt
Completely pointless to have a debate between May and Corbyn on Brexit. Two people with positions they cannot reveal trying to outbid each other on how evasive they can be.

I can see why she wants it though. An hour of that and I'd vote to destroy the planet. No-deal would seem minor.