Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Yes exactly Singing you’re right. (I think I prefer to call myself a European than a ‘Brit’.)

This loss of citizenship is another thing that makes me angry.

Nobody is going to gain anything from this - just lose.

With you 100% Hester. I feel so very sad. Funnily enough, until the referendum fiasco I’d never really thought about whether I indentified as British or European. It’s only now I realise that I do have a strong emotional attachment to being European. I suppose I’ve always just taken it for granted. I don’t care about the ‘but we’ll still be part of Europe, we’re only leaving the EU’ argument. It will feel different because it will be different. Totally different. We will be impoverished as a nationan, not just financially but emotionally, intellectually and culturally. I honestly can’t really believe this is actually happening.

“he failure to train enough nurses was there 20 years ago when I arrived. At that time, there were programs in tv about how awful it was of the U.K. to go and pinch nurses from South Africa etc... when they had trained them (and paid for it) AND they desperately needed them for their own population.”

That would be 1998? The year after the GE finished 18 years of Conservative Government underinvestment in the NHS.

Agree Singing. We’ve been focussing mainly on economic effects but I agree there’ll be emotional and cultural ramifications. And changes in attitude in how we’re viewed and how we view others.

Just at a time when people in the world need to come together and co-operate to save the planet. But we seem unable to think about these huge global issues that we all share. Just subdivide into random parcels of land to fight our own corners.

Sorry - I’ve got into a rant!

A good piece by Faisal Islam on SKY news website trying to point out that the 'deal' that was agreed on Sunday is 'IT', there will be no more.
Spain and France are among the leaders of the 'sharks' sensing blood. Germany haven't said much publicly except Mrs Merkel is fed up of waiting.

nutty I also saw a massive improvement in the NHS during the Blair years

The NHS cuts through the 1980s left the NHS on its knees, waiting lists for 2 years for some ops

• e.g. I had to pay privately for my late mum to have surgery on her feet, knee and eyes, because she was in pain and housebound until they were done

Now we see the NHS run down again
It seems even worse now than the 80s, because I can't remember patients in corridors, or kept in ambulances

When people grumble about the NHS, they should remember that it keeps being starved of funds for several years and then has to be built up again

We started the NHS with foreign nursing staff. My late Mum was one. The majority of her colleagues were Irish, French or West Indian.
Thanks to her I'm still entitled to citizenship of an EU country.
We have never had enough British nurses to keep the NHS going.
Thanks, Mum.

The estimates I've read for No Deal are that the GDP loss would be 2-3 x higher than a Norway deal,
but that even Norway leads to a loss compared to EU membership.

Problems with explaining these kind of estimates:

1. Too many people no longer respect, or believe "experts"- knowledge has become tribal:
   Any facts that show disadvantages of the tribe's policies are rejected,
   even demonised as "treacherous, sabotage .."

2. Many also don't have the numerical skills to understand a reduction in the increase in GDP that we would have if we Remain
   i.e. unless GDP actually falls, they'll say the predictions are all lies

if e.g. GDP increase is only 1% instead of 2.5%, some Leavers will claim that as "Brexit dividend"
others would say that it is acceptable, in return for stopping FOM

BCF (or anyone)
Since the EU have signed off 'the deal and said repeatedly that this is as good as it going to get.
What the heck are Corbyn and all the other 'alternative plan' people doing apart from wasting time and energy?
Surely the EU don't care if HoC/Daleks/God approves of it that is what is on offer, and the alternatives are Revoke or 'crash' (no real plan)?

Only looking for a short answer!

Scapegoating: Ireland - Leo Varadkhar in particular has long been a hated target of the right, blamed for ruining theri Brexit plans

(although he is right of centre, imo)

He's learned the facts, worked hard to explain Ireland's POV to other member countries and done an excellent job for his country

• I wish that anyone in the UK govt had worked half so well

Of course, he had Barnier's excellent support
and the EU countries lined up loyally to support a member against a much bigger neighbour

If the EU just thought of trade, like Brexiters believe the do, then this wouldn't have happened.
Another of the many big miscalculations by Brexit politicians
They still keep claiming the EU are controlling Ireland, when in fact it is more the other way round - well played, Leo !

Leo Varadkar has done his absolute best to damage Brexit

Another Brexiter fuming at him

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/leo-varadkar-has-done-his-absolute-best-to-damage-brexit/amp/?twitterr_impression=true

LeClerc There is NO possibility to renegotiate this WA, or anything based on a CU
Corbyn & others are talking bollocks there

The other alternate plans involve abandoning the idea of a CU and moving to a Norway++ deal.
That can at most be added to the Political Declaration, because it will take 3-4 years to negotiate, in transition.

Tory supporters of alternate deals especially want to get the NI backstop dropped.
The EU will never agree to that
and will probably still demand it even for Norway++, in case the UK later quits EFTA too.

Thanks
I thought that was the case but as there seemed to be so much talk I had wondered if I had missed something somewhere.
Maybe the EU negotiators should now wear 'T' shirts (or something a bit more stylish) that says 'La La La were not listening any more'.
Although almost universally hated I think that the 'deal' has sufficient slack in it for a very wide range of outcomes but it puts the onus onto the UK to actually decide what it wants and negotiate properly now, rather than expecting the EU to do all the thinking. Yes it is crap for the UK now, but many things can be negotiated from this position.

The stupid thing with leavers now wanting EEA/EFTA is that this would probably have been available to us, if May hadn't appeased her right wing with her red lines. I suspect that if we had asked for the EEA/EFTA willingly, it would be nearly completed by now. Instead the Leavers are now whining that May's deal is no good, so we'll have what the Swiss and Norwegians have, for now, without bothering to ask if that's still possible.

Our problem now is that the EU commission has finished negotiating
but there is still a void where UK govt ministers should be active & organised

Hence individual countries like France, Spain, even little Cyprus are flexing their muscles and saying what they'll demand for the actual trade deal, to follow the transition

It's not just the E27:
These negotiations have revealed the astonishing ignorance & incompetence of the uk govt,
probably previously concealed by being in the EU.

Now, countries all around the world see that the UK is hopelessly adrift and becoming desperate

Sharks are circling, ready to have us for dinner if we crash out with No Deal.

Expat voting rights case lost:

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/nov/26/european-court-rejects-british-expats-brexit-referendum-harry-shindler

A court challenge over the legality of the EU’s Brexit negotiations brought by a 97-year-old war veteran and 12 other emigrant Britons has been rejected by the European court of justice in Luxembourg.

Harry Shindler, who lives in Italy, and others who reside in various EU member states had argued that the referendum in 2016 was invalid because they and more than a million Britons living in the EU were deprived of a vote.

French lawyers acting for the British claimants said the EU should not, therefore, have accepted the UK’s intention to withdraw

There is a 15-year time limit on British emigrants being able to register as overseas voters.

The government has said it will support a private member’s billl^ introduced by the Conservative MP Glyn Davies that would do away with that time restriction in future.

Labour has refused to back the billl*, saying it would involve too much administration. 😡
< bloody Corbyn >

Hester - but it’s so hard not to rant isn’t it? Because too much Brexit talk increases DH’s stress levels,and increased stress makes his
Parkinson’s symptoms considerably worse, I do try to keep a bit of a lid on it at home (often unsuccessfully) so it does tend to bubble away uncontrollably when given the opportunity. Feel free to rant as much as you like - if you feel it’s not appropriate for the thread I will happily receive ranty PMs - as long as I can reciprocate!

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/can-the-uk-cancel-brexit-were-about-to-find-out/

While a ruling that the UK government can revoke Article 50 might encourage a second referendum and keep the UK inside the EU,

it would also empower Eurosceptics such as Viktor Orban to cause merry hell by issuing their own Article 50 notices they intend to withdraw at the last minute
(perhaps as a way of pressuring the Council and Commission over other issues).

This is why I suspect the ECJ will rule Article 50 can’t be revoked:
it remains a political court
and it is unlikely to set a precedent that cause massive headaches for the EU in the long run.

MN Brexit Webchat tomorrow (Tuesday) 1:30 pm

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnetlivee_events/3434576-brexit-where-are-we-what-could-happen-next-webchat-with-three-experts-on-tuesday-27-november-at-1-30pm%20?dod=1

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/27/labour-betraying-british-citizens-abroad-who-cannot-vote" target="_blank">Labour has refused to back the billl*l, saying it would involve too much administration. 😡
< bloody Corbyn >

Corbyn is outrageous on this. Is it because he knows it would help a PV if that happened? but Labour brought in the 15 year limit in the first place. I looked up the history :

• Prior to 1985 uK citizens living overseas were not permitted to register to vote in any UK national elections.

• Representation of the People Act 1985 extended the vote to expats and enabled them to register as overseas voters in the constituency for which they were last registered. This was initially only available for those who had lived abroad for no longer than five years.

•In 1989 the Representation of the People Act extended it to longer- I'm not sure what though but over 15 years.

•In 2000 Labour reduced the amount of time that British citizens needed to vote in UK elections to fifteen years by the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

•In 2014 Grant Shapps Tory chairman of said: “Being a British citizen is for life. It gives you the lifelong right to be protected by our military and Foreign Office, and to travel on a British passport. We believe it should also give you the lifelong right to vote." and. It. Was.included.in.the.Tory. manifesto to remove this cap and extend it to a full right to vote in British elections for life.

Interesting Cameron kept the pledge on a referendum but not on this.

The government have finally published the text of their application to the Supreme Court, in the A50 case, see here from Jo Maugham: twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1067027768834183168

Interestingly, the government now admits that parliament can direct it to revoke A50, against government policy. Presumably this is why they fought the release of the application text?

I would have thought that if this is the case, then parliament can also force the government to ask for an extension to A50 (which the EU27 would have to the approve).

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Reflecting on the news of Theresa May’s CoS briefing Labour MPs tonight, one brexit champion writes:

So Both the Conservative party and the Labour Party are saying backing the WA will destroy their respective parties.

Ironically, I think there is a sizeable number of voters who would be damn happy about that.

This obviously raises the 'becareful what you wish for' mantra, but I do think the public mood is in line with wanting a political realignment of some kind.

Ian Dunt @ iandunt
Notice how everyone now accepts it was foolish to trigger Article 50 without a plan. At the time, people were unanimous that it had to be triggered as soon as possible.

These are how the big errors - like Iraq, which at the time had lots of support - are recalibrated. We slowly acknowledge the truth and eventually overwrite our own memory to forget we ever failed to grasp it