Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

BigChoc - that's a good summary of the E27's attitude towards the result of Barnier's negotiation of the WA. What dh, my dad and I were discussing tonight was how impressed we were with the coordinated message from the E27, all singing with regret and sadness from exactly the same hymn sheet.

Re the House of Lords: I'm not sure of the constitutional mechanics, but didn't she create a potential rod for her own back when she made the current parliamentary "session" a 2(+?) year one, as the HoL can send things back within a session but the convention is that they can't do it again over two sessions. That's not quite right - but it's something along those lines.

The political commentators i ve listened too say she ll get two bites of the cherry and then its dead.
Perhaps HoC precedent is what they are looking at? i'd have thought Bercow would have a say in how many times the exact same bill can be voted on.

The prob with the Boles idea is that once the WA is through, the political declaration is just intent, not legally binding, you could end up with anything, Norway is unlikely as haven't they said they don't want the UK as a temp member until we move on and outwards?

Bottom line is BCF, neither you nor i know what will happen next! supposition only!

Emergency Plan: Amber Rudd and Michael Gove plus Labour rebels are planning for UK to join the European Free Trade Area

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7825443/amber-rudd-and-michael-gove-join-efta/amp/?

...Amber Rudd and Michael Gove have formed a cross-Brexit alliance to push for membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA
....
But the ministers will only publicly propose it as a final fallback when all else fails, to be sure of enough Labour support for it.

That would mean after the PM loses the meaningful vote next month,
and once Jeremy Corbyn’s bid to force a general election
and an expected backbench bid for a second referendum also all fails.

I'm concerned though that ALL these solutions dreamed up from the UK side
keep claiming this or that will remove the Irish backstop.

What I hear in Germany / EU sources is that EVERY possible Brexit - maybe even Remain - must include a backstop

The RoI - an EU - no longer trust the UK to keep to the GFA for one minute longer than economic necessity of EU trade deals

Hence, even with Norway++, the EU is likely to demand a Backstop - that would hopefully never be needed - in case the UK later walks away

iirc, any member can withdraw from EFTA after giving 12 months notice
That would land Ireland in the shit again, unless there is a backstop.

jas Norway have said they don't want us as a temporary member
but in the past, they've welcomed the idea that we join permanently, as it would massively strengthen EFTA

Boles seems to have moved on from "Norway for now" to "Norway forever"
maybe slipstreaming the much more important Rudd, Gove et al

Why would anyone wish this for their country?

I ask myself that about people who voted Leave all the time Jas.

It’s a terrible deal. Not because May has lied or betrayed Leavers.

Because you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.

Fundamentally misbegotten.

The Irish Border**@BorderIrish
(prayer !) 😂

Jas, I don't know where you got the idea that the Blair years failed to train nurses. I work closely in this area and the Blair/Labour years did really well in keeping nurses numbers up through immigration and education.

It was only after 2010 that everything went really downhill- -

British student nurses have to pay for their training (which have put so many mature students not to do their nurse training). The government is plugging the hole through nursing assistants.

Immigrant nurses- Young and physically fit EU nurses who are less likely to strain the system are now leaving and not coming back because of the perception that teh British people hate them!

Non EU nurses are paying for their health care levy despite already paying taxes here.

From my experience, the best years were before 2010- I felt I was making a difference. Patient Satisfaction was high.

Now, it seems so jaded. It breaks my heart when patients have to be in the corridor or if I have to nurse 12-15 patient all with varying co morbidities and needs.

It breaks my heart when patients have to be in the corridor or if I have to nurse 12-15 patient all with varying co morbidities and needs.

My d neighbour who is an NHS consultant says that because of the EU nurses departing, people on her wards are dying who may not otherwise have done so.She says there just aren't enough nursing staff to follow through with the care plans.

old not d

Oh dear God - according to the Daily Mail, Corbyn has accepted May's challenge to debate the WA on live TV.

@RedToothbrush

Just how wedded is PM to the GRA changes, which means more Brexit or TWAW?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6427353/A-miserable-failure-negotiation-Jeremy-Corbyn-blasts-Theresa-Mays-Brexit-deal.html

I agree that failure to train enough nurses has been a problem for longer than 8 years, but nutty is right - it's the Tory removal of the bursary for nurses and midwives that has been catastrophic. Student applicant numbers have fallen through the floor and the most recent evidence shows that finance (or lack thereof) is the number one reason for student attrition during training. Nurse and midwifery training is 37 hours per week, 45 weeks per year - earning money in your 'spare time' (ha!) is very difficult. Universities are cancelling entire recruitment days for lack of interest; it's absolutely unprecedented.

Remove a load of experienced EU nurses as well and you have a perfect storm. The NHS cannot survive like this.

Costings on the plan as outlined so far. These are from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and admittedly commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, However government figures are to follow, right?

• The UK’s Gross Domestic Product would fall by 3.9% - or £100 billion annually
• GDP per head would fall by 3% a year - amounting to an average cost per person a year of £1,090 at today’s prices.
• Total trade between the UK and the EU would fall by 46%
• Foreign Direct Investment would fall by 21%
• Labour productivity would fall by 1.3%
• Tax revenue would fall by 1.5% to 2% - the equivalent of £18-23 billion less to spend on public services at today’s prices.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/report-finds-theresa-may-brexit-plan-will-make-us-all-100-billion-worse-off-each-year-1-5794161

The failure to train enough nurses was there 20 years ago when I arrived. At that time, there were programs in tv about how awful it was of the U.K. to go and pinch nurses from South Africa etc... when they had trained them (and paid for it) AND they desperately needed them for their own population.
The Tories just finished it off with the bursaries.

I just love that FB had the nerve to turn around and suggest that a poxy local court where FBs headquarters are located has jurisdiction over the British government.

In a democracy, political power and judicial powers are separated. For very good reasons, it’s too easy for the government to try and influence judges etc...
So, as far as I am concerned, it should NEVER be the British government investigating FB but the British Courts/Police.
In the same way that the Lords should never be the ones to decide if it’s ok to pursue the sexual assaults made by one of their peers and whether they should him out or not.

There isnt such a thing as ‘a little Court’ imo.

She could add the word 'Please' at the bottom, that might work?

I haven't thought of the full argument yet and time is pressing, but with the Russians ramming, blockading and firing (with fatalities) at Ukrainian ships yesterday, is this a good time for the UK to be 'going it alone' without the guaranteed assistance from EU members?

Who'd have thought it? A MN web chat tomorrow with... whispers.... experts!

Resistance in the Christmas decorations of a Midlands garden centre, but only with very small letters.

EtVoilaBrexit I also came here 20 years ago (from Italy) and never thought the time would come when I'd be called a queue jumper or accused of stealing a job for a British-born person. I did get British citizenship years ago because I wanted the right to vote but never did it cross my mind that I'd be seen as an immigrant who should not be here in the first place. That's not why I got citizenship!
It is not queue jumping: it's called free movement of people. Brits working in Italy didn't queue-jump, just like I didn't when I decided to settle here after a Masters 20 years ago!
Finally I have to get this off my chest: I'm fuming at Labour even just as much as I am at the Tories. This crisis is wholly the product of the Tory party.
Instead of bullshit "6 test" Brexit plan that "protects jobs" (what the hell does that mean in practice) they should take a stance and say they would call Brexit off if they came to power. Instead it's completely useless to have Labour in opposition.

Hear, hear Loletta

I completely agree Loletta, EtVoila, and to you and all E.U. nationals on here, I want to say, this attitude from TM and the government really pains me. I’m not an E.U. national but I’m ashamed of this unfriendly stance and I know millions of other right-thinking Brits are too. I value the contribution that you make with your hard work, and I personally love having people here from other nations. In my job I meet lots of E.U. nationals, and I’ve never met one who didn’t come here to work hard and contribute to society.

I’ve travelled a lot in Europe and everywhere been treated with respect and kindness. I don’t know how long this will last though. I think this government’s stance will come back to bite us one day on the world stage.

Until then, many of us will be feeling sorrow, regret and a feeling of impotence about it all.
I am still fighting it, but what can you do about the words that come out of politicians’ mouths, when they’re grandstanding and playing to the (potential voters) gallery?

Hester - we right-minded Brits are EU nationals .
At least until the end of March