Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Well, if Parliament won't let No Deal happen, they must be prepared to vote for the WA, even at the last moment

That would be very reassuring, if we could be certain they can organise & count up to 325 or whatever

The ERG didn't manage to organise 48 votes

I'm just getting the listening to May telling so many lies about the EU while she reads out her statement (yes, I know I'm late: it's the first chance I've had to see the news today).

It also is so insulting to the EU, effectively insinuating that the EU itself is not democratic

And her deliberate conflation of the £394 million/week to the NHS with the Leave lie on the bus, to confuse the gullible

Dh has told me to calm down

Norway would be fine, if the HoC gets its arse into gear to request this and if the E27 agree

BUT
The EU Commission can't order 27 members to agree - and it is the 27, not the Commission, that have to unanimously agree to an extension etc

AND
Norway has expressed concern before about having the huge UK cuckoo dumped in its nest, in too much hurry

Norway may have its price ... which will likely include fish, among other concessions from the UK

RNorth doesn't rate the rumours highly:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=870655^

"Yet, in this whole piece, there is not a single mention of Efta, nor the inconvenient problem of getting the existing four states to fall in with our ambitions.
Once again, we see this extraordinary Tory arrogance in assuming that these countries will roll over and welcome the UK unconditionally into the fold.

Nor indeed from Hargrave – nor from the Telegraph in its speculative piece - is there any hint of the complexity of the process of adapting the EEA Agreement to suit the UK's special requirements,
and the need for add-on treaties with the EU to cement in a working relationship. "

She's awful. I have to turn her off - can't bear listening to her. Best hope is Parl vote it down and she resigns and takes her petty xenophobia with her.

I totally get your anger @prettybird . I'm bloody angry too. Try if you can, to focus your energy on doing what you can to lobby your MP against "No Deal". Whoever they are and however they voted; whatever shit they say - our priority has to be avoiding No Deal.

Is the 'extra' £40 million a reflection of how much the pound has devalued in the 2 years since this shitfest started?

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit

Joy.

We've had a localised water shortage in the last week. Its a pain for just a few hours.

DH has rolled his eyes at the mere idea and me saying, we will be saving plastic bottles.

Water is the one thing I've not really thought too much about as I thought it highly unlikely. Looks like I was wrong.

{The EU Commission can't order 27 members to agree - and it is the 27, not the Commission, that have to unanimously agree to an extension etc}
On the basis that Mrs Merkel has said she won't cooperate with the EU on any more farting about and delays it would be very foolish to expect unanimous agreement.

Ok - for anyone panicking about water (not necessary even in my pessimistic prepper view). Aldi sells cheap bottles. Shove some under your bed.
Worst comes to worst - again, I really don't expect it to- get a bucket and stick it outside when it rains. Filter what you collect through an old T-shirt and boil what remains (pardon pun) for about a minute. Cool and drink.

Just the thought of having to stockpile water should surely be sufficient for even the most stubborn Leaver to acknowledge that No Deal crash out would be disasterous?

May says people voted to end free movement, to end the jurisdiction of the ECJ, and to stop sending vast sums of money to the EU. (The same expressions that she used on 21st Nov., so this is obviously this week's script).

As usual, May is only talking about one side of the equation.

Ending the free movement of EU citizens means that UK citizens are also locked out of the EU. The million who already live there. The 500,000 whose jobs depend on being able to freely move around the EU (truck drivers, coach drivers, sales reps, installation and maintenance engineers, project managers, consultants etc.). The thousands who work for multinational companies and who spend time in offices around Europe - and whose career prospects have been instantly curtailed by the Brexit vote. The thousands of seasonal workers - travel reps, instructors, hospitality staff - whose jobs almost certainly disappear on 29th March.

Whatever the final deal, it looks like British citizens are going to lose their EU citizenship and be trapped behind a wall in to a society that will collapse either on 29th March or early 2020. The Berlin Wall was not built just to keep foreigners out - the main purpose was to control the East Germans and prevent them from leaving, so that they would be forced to accept any job and any conditions that the Party elite chose to impose.

The ECJ will still have jurisdiction over any trade deal that the UK manages to squeeze out of the EU - the EU will not accept any other court or legal system when they already have a well-established one in place.

The UK sends relatively little money to the EU - and much of what it pays into the EU pot results in cost savings elsewhere, either in the form of direct cost savings or indirect savings (time saved, single applications rather than duplication etc.). The UK shares Agencies such as the Medicines Agency, which the UK will now be forced to replicate at great cost to both the country and the manufacturers. Ditto for chemicals and food standards. Introducing new customs systems will cost the government (i.e. the taxpayer) £20bn - and will cost exporters another £20bn a year, making British exports even less competitive. Brexit will not result in a saving of 'vast sums' such as the mysterious £350m - Brexit is already costing the UK £500m a week and the bill rises every day as the Pound decreases in value

When will May really do the maths and realise that £2 a week per head for membership of the largest, most integrated and wealthiest economic bloc on the planet, right on our doorstep, is the best deal that anyone could ever hope to negotiate?

When will the population realise that 'taking back control' comes at the cost of he loss of personal freedom? Just look at who wants to take control - the far right or the far left - and consider the consequences if the UK sleepwalks into allowing this to happen.

Worth stickpiling puritabs from the local walking / camping shop too, bellini? Water tastes crap but at least it won't kill you

@OlennasWimple - agree. Which is why we should lobby our MPs against no Deal. Shit Deal is better than no deal.

@OlennasWimple - I have puritabs but I don't want people to start spending money they don't need to.

When she feels she has delivered, I think she will drop to be honest.

Me too, I can't abide the woman and the sound of her voice.

I’m with you. It makes me irrationally angry, especially when she trots out the same old soundbites.

She is like a preprogrammed doll that has her cord pulled and commences the same spiel.

Mother I’m not ready to capitulate, yet...

I mean, at least for now!

I live in the West of Scotland so the availability of rain water is not an issue

I have an active SNP MP, who has been very good at communicating his disgust at what is going in with Brexit. However , I am going to leave it up to the SNP strategists to decide what the best approach is with regard to voting for the WA - whether now or in a last ditch vote just before A50 activates ( if it activates). Nicola and her team (including Ian Blackford) have been very canny thus far.

They've also been making sure to go out and win friends and influence people in the E27 (contrast that with the WM Government ), so whatever they decide will be based on a longer term strategy.

I'm not sure whether if the 'deal' is accepted now that given a significant change of heart that most if not all the benefits of being 'in' the EU can't be renegotiated during transition. I would expect to lose the rebates, but might manage to avoid Schengen and Euro.

Mother Let's hope the HoC can produce something better

• but preferably without a PV, because CA and Banks' insurance firm will have transferred all details of the millions of targeted voters and exactly how to hook them. The same Psy Ops would be used again, but unstoppably from US sites instead of via the official Leave

^In transition, everything is possible, including the Fast Track Rejoin that Tusk et al have spoken about

After a No Deal crash out:

It won't just be Leavers who suffer - Remainers will, too^

The EU will suffer (much less) damage too, so public opinion there will likely demand harsh terms:

whether for any future FTA like Canada - without any ++
or Norway
or Rejoin - those optouts will be gone

They will insist on the strictest NI backstop, because the UK will have proved it causes disasters deliberately.