Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Surely extra TV platforms etc are only being constructed in this particular week on No 10s say so -as there was a declared intention to sell the deal?

@bellini Have you prepped re drinking water ?

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit

https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-6425479/Michael-Gove-backed-hearing-UK-run-drinking-water-DAYS-No-Deal.html

in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May's deal

Whitehall disaster planners have warned Ministers that leaving the EU without a deal could spark a national crisis
as crucial chemicals used in water purification are imported to the UK from Europe.

The deliveries risk getting caught in weeks of border chaos if Britain quits the EU next March
without the Prime Minister’s deal with Brussels being approved by MPs.

The vital chemicals are timed to arrive ‘just in time’ and cannot be stockpiled as they are too volatile,

meaning water plants would have to turn off the taps as soon as they ran out or risk poisoning millions.

Offices and schools would close and hospitals plunged into chaos.

The startling warning is contained in secret Whitehall contingency plans codenamed Operation Yellowhammer

< but we've had enough of experts, Michael ? >

Possibly May is going to organise a conga of MPs to show unity?

Will they ORDER the EU - i.e. all 27 countries - to give an extension if asked for

The ECJ can only interpret the law, so it will clarify whether the treaty allows for a country to unilaterally revoke A50. With a view to future cases, it might say that this can only be done in good faith, ie, if the country has truly changed its mind according to its constitutional processes. It can’t order the EU27 to give an extension, or anything like that.

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit

I can recall with a clarity only available through the mist of anger how Brexiteers raised a chorus of ridicule about the idea that there could be problems with water supplies as a result of no deal.

They really were a bunch of the thickest, stupidest moronic cunts I've ever dealt with online.

If you can't have potable water on tap, then you'll need energy to help purify it.

Meanwhile, under the tinfoil ...

At the demise of empire, City of London financial interests created a web of secrecy jurisdictions that captured wealth from across the globe and hid it in a web of offshore islands. Today, up to half of global offshore wealth is hidden in British jurisdictions and Britain and its dependencies are the largest global players in the world of international finance. The Spider's Web was written, directed and produced by Michael Oswald,

The Spider's Web was substantially inspired by Nicholas Shaxson's book Treasure Islands

For those interested to learn more about tax justice and financial secrecy, read about the Tax Justice Network's campaigning and regular blogs - become part of the movement for change and listen to the Tax Justice Network's monthly podcast/radio show the Taxcast www.taxjustice.net/taxcast .

Supermarkets obviously haven't / couldn't prepped sufficiently

They are shitting themselves,
a prospect of angry customers tearing the shelves down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/24/supermarket-bosses-concern-mounts-threat-empty-shelves-no-deal/

Some of the food industry’s most ­senior figures are preparing to issue a joint public warning about the perils of a no-deal Brexit,
as concerns mount that supermarket shelves could be left bare within days if Britain crashes out of Europe.

The move could see the Big Four grocers led by Tesco and Sainsbury’s teaming up with discount rivals Aldi and Lidl and multinational food suppliers including Unilever and Nestle to spell out the perils of leaving the European Union without an agreement.

haranguing kerr is unfair - no contract drafter can cater for what might happen if insanity prevails - current situation would have been perceived as likely as trump being elected.
The generation that worked through the war years would never have believed it possible that fascism would once again threaten europe let alone the world.

The move could see the Big Four grocers led by Tesco and Sainsbury’s teaming up with discount rivals Aldi and Lidl and multinational food suppliers including Unilever and Nestle to spell out the perils of leaving the European Union without an agreement.

Bit late now ?

"It can’t order the EU27 to give an extension "

So, the UK could revoke unilaterally, via the HoC directly, but not have a PV without EU agreement to an extension

#TakingBackControl

So, the UK could revoke unilaterally, via the HoC directly, but not have a PV without EU agreement to an extension

Yes, all a consequence of invoking A50 too early. We may be about to make another enormous mistake that will bind us for a long time (the WA).

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1125/1013219-uk-eu-security/

The EU has ruled out any decision-making role for the UK when it comes to foreign and defence policy post-Brexit.

The letter follows concerns raised by Cyprus that Britain would have a privileged role in the EU’s foreign and security policy.

It is understood that Cyprus, as well as Greece, is concerned that any access to EU meetings in the area of defence and security would become a precedent for Turkey to seek similar access.

< so much for Commonwealth support 🤔

• oh btw, Brexiters: Cyprus is in the Commonwelath and their citizens in the UK could vote in the ref >

MissMoon Remain - if we can - is far better than anything else
But if it it clear by say February that the HoC hasn't the votes for Remain or for a PV ....

No Deal would be far worse than the WA
We may never regain our optouts, but we could still Rejoin, or at least move to Norway++

haranguing kerr is unfair.

Agree. It was meant to get rid of right wing authoritarian regimes quickly but in an orderly way. He just never envisaged that the UK would be that right wing authoritarian regime.

“It seemed to me very likely that a dictatorial regime would then, in high dudgeon, want to storm out. And to have a procedure for storming out seemed to be quite a sensible thing to do — to avoid the legal chaos of going with no agreement,” Kerr said.

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-article-50-lord-kerr-john-kerr/

The letter follows concerns raised by Cyprus that Britain would have a privileged role in the EU’s foreign and security policy.

As Brexit proceeds, there will be a lot of quiet time in the corridors of UK diplomacy ... The UK will be free to speak for the UK (as indeed it always was). But I suspect there will be some rather pointed put-downs when the UK tries to intimate it speaks for anyone else. Not that it'll happen very often. After all, if any country outside the EU seeks the EUs views on things, it will ask an EU country. Not a country that has made such a point of not being an EU country.

International meetings will be amusing.

"haranguing kerr is unfair"

He claimed he never imagined the UK would use the A50, just that one of the East European countries might have a fascist dictator who would use it.

So he should have drafted it to be watertight, even against fascist dictators

He is also claiming he meant it to be unilaterally revocable
Why the hell mean that and not actually write it in the article ?
That - if true - is sheer incompetence

That’s very worrying, we usually keep a couple of 5litre bottles aro7nd in case of emergency...but no where near enough to last more than a few days.

I’ve been sort of burying my head just hoping some sanity would take over and save us.

I’ve lurked on this thread on and off and trust most on here to be fully switched on to what’s happening.

So how likely is no deal now? Should I keep calm and cross fingers, or order 50 huge bottles of water?

Grieve backed down before on his HoC amendment (last June, iirc) and claimed he had an agreement with May

It wasn't written down & signed
so she could dump it within hours

That's incompetence too, especially from a QC, who should know better
Or he was just being cowardly / dishonest with his claimed agreement

This behaviour by Kerr and by Grieve would have had them kicked out on their incompetent arses if they worked in industry
(OK, given a golden handshake if they were high enough. But at least they would no longer be in place)

I think no deal is highly unlikely. I agree with Amber Rudd on this.

Legoumi Several reports claim that May would get the WA passed on a 2nd attempt
after Sterling & the markets crash following the failure of the 1st attempt.

Personally, I rate the chances of No Deal at 50%

I'd hope even this govt of arrogant idiots would organise emergency water supplies very quickly
e.g. RAF flying in the chemicals every day after Brexit
or begging the EU to fly them in, if need be

but after Raab - our negotiator - revealed he didn't know how our food arrived,
there are no depths of govt stupidity that I can rule out

Also, the EU can't rescue a country of 65 million from every possible stupidity - there will be stuff noone has thought of,
the "unknown unknowns"

Maybe our expert prepper, bellini, could advise ?

@Legouni , I agree that Parliament won't let it happen- lobby your MP.
However, if you are concerned, forget worrying about water and head on over to the Prepper topic. No tin foil hats there just lots of practical advice.
Spoiler alert: imagine 3 days snowed in. Have enough to eat and keep clean and stay entertained. Have a radio with batteries- wind up radio for preference and know where your local radio stations are on it as well as BBC national stations.
If you want to store more, go ahead if you have the space and the inclination. If not, you get three days grace to centre yourself and suss things out locally. Or you don't need it at all and you can use it and/or donate to a food bank.
And don't tell anyone you have stuff. Not because it's a secret society or shit like that but because your priority is you and your household. Adults should make their own arrangements not assume other people will make arrangements for them.

I think the challenge is that Kerr is not a lawyer - and should have been better advised by legally trained civil servants/EU commissioners who should have been providing due diligence to ensure that there weren't loopholes in the treaties.

Dominic Grieve doesn't have that excuse - and certainly shouldn't have been naive enough to accept a verbal promise from the two-faced May.

Veteran Leaver RNorth said he built up 3 month stocks of absolutely everything, over a year ago.
Most people can't do this, so it's not practical advice for all.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1050065/brexit-latest-news-withdrawal-agreement-eu-cabinet-plan-b-theresa-may-dealf

express.co.uk
REVEALED: Secret Brexit 'Plan B' options drawn up by EU and Treasury if deal fails
Tom Nellist
4-5 minutes

MPs will vote next month on the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, which has been signed off by EU leaders at a special summit in Brussels today.

However, the Prime Minister faces increasing opposition to the deal, with at least 90 members of her own party and MPs from all other parties vowing to vote it down.

Now it has emerged EU officials and the Cabinet are drawing up an emergency back up option as worries grow the current deal will collapse.

The Plan B idea would see the UK leave the EU with a Norway-style deal.

According to leaked documents seen by the Daily Telegraph, the agreement would give the UK a more certain “exit mechanism” but the free movement of workers from EU countries would continue.

It means the UK would still be a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) but would not have full EU membership.

The Treasury is drawing up economic models to compare with the agreed deal and no-deal scenarios, one of which is an EEA-like blueprint.

The models would allow the Treasury to “support any meaningful vote in Parliament on the final deal.”

Cabinet and EU leaders fear Theresa May’s Brexit deal will collapse

Cabinet and EU leaders fear Theresa May’s Brexit deal will collapse (Image: Getty, Reuters)

According to the newspaper, the DUP have held talks with Cabinet ministers over the Plan B.

The Northern Ireland party, who the Prime Minister relies upon for House of Commons support, has argued against Theresa May’s deal and called for a new agreement to be negotiated.

Despite the Plan B leak, the Treasury has insisted that Chancellor Philip Hammond is behind Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement which was backed by the EU today.

Meanwhile, in Brussels, senior EU officials are preparing for Mrs May to request that Article 50 is extended should her deal not get MPs' approval.

Diplomats think the UK could be plunged into a Brexit crisis if the deal is rejected by MPs and are also considering implications for the EU if Theresa May called a general election, allowed a second ‘People’s Vote’ referendum or came back asking for the Norway-style negotiations.

EU leaders Juncker and Tusk are drawing up Brexit Plan B alternatives

EU leaders Juncker and Tusk are drawing up Brexit Plan B alternatives (Image: GETTY)

A source told the Telegraph that the European Council has already discussed reasons on which Article 50 might be extended, saying the UK could still be part of the EU in July.

The source, who is close to EU Council President Donald Tusk, said a no deal “emergency” could see Article 50 extended for a month while if Theresa May announced a second referendum it could be longer.

The source said: “The extension might only be for a month or so, to make emergency preparations for a no deal.

“The longest an extension could continue until is probably July, when the results of the European Parliament elections are codified, and then it would only be to accommodate a specific move, like a second referendum.

David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg expect a no deal Brexit

David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg expect a no deal Brexit (Image: GETTY)

“Ultimately it will be up to the leaders.”

Meanwhile, Tory infighting over Mrs May’s deal has heated up with senior Conservatives warning the Prime Minister her agreement will result in a no deal.

Iain Duncan Smith, Priti Patel, Owen Paterson, John Whittingdale, Jacob Rees-Mogg are being led by former Brexit secretary David Davis in saying they have “grave doubts about this proposal which are shared across the House of Commons by members of all parties.

“By continuing to pursue it, when it is plain that it does not have enough votes to carry it through the House of Commons, you are making a no-deal scenario more likely.”

As for water, I don't predict any water problems but there is advice on Prepper topic about this generally. My late Mum's town had serious water problems a few years back so I always keep a bit extra in. Not because of Brexit but because shit happens.