Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Schengen would not be forced on us, as it would require a proper hard border and working bureaucracy which I do not think the UK is capable of maintaining. Schengen would also necessitate way more intelligence sharing, and the UK has always preferred the five eyes nations.

The euro - no way. We would totally destabilise the eurozone and they find it hard to balance it out as it is.

I very much hope this deal is voted down.
Mays succession of lies and misinformation was shocking, how can anyone trust anything she says or does?

She portrayed the WA as the final deal, where as we ve zero idea what we'll be getting in 2 to 4 years time, no deal, turkey, Cananda, Norway who knows? and with no say, would HoC even have a roll?

No, vote it down and call her bluff !

If Corbyn had shown an ounce of credibility then voting it down would be an option.

But he hasn’t, so it isn’t.

Even if it doesn’t go through in round 1 it will in round 2.

Because the alternative is potentially no deal and him as a leader which is unthinkable.

But this 'deal' isn't the actual 'leave' deal, it only defines a few items and indicates the direction that negotiators will start on 30 March.
No deal means that negotiators will not materialise on 30 March. This deal, many things could be negotiated or the UK could ask to remain.
Maybe incorrect but I think that is the gist of it.

Elanade We wouldn't qualify for the Euro for decades, because of our large annual deficit and fundamentally unstable finances

Our trade relies on the pound being gradually devalued over the years; otherwise, our exports would crash with a few years and we'd be a liability, not an asset, to the EU.

The EU has learned from Greece not to allow the financially incapable into the Eurozone

Sweden has managed to avoid the Euro, despite having signed up in 1994

I expect we'd end up in the outer ring of the EU, along with the Scandinavian countries,
all of us non-Euro and able to opt out from Schengen

We do have a hard border, except for with the Republic of Ireland (which would probably go into Schengen if the UK did, in any case). The most vulnerable bits of our border are the high traffic sea ports (which mostly connect to Schengen countries); high traffic airports (which also connect to Schengen countries, but in any case our airport border security is genuinely among the best in the world); and our very large, unmanned sea border - but that's the same for France, Spain, Italy etc

This is an interesting briefing on UK / EU cooperation on criminal justice issues, including data sharing. I need to re-read it, but from memory it confirms that in many cases the UK is already working bilaterally with key countries where it's unable to access EU-wide systems, and that the EU benefits from the UK's participation in data exchange and criminal justice cooperation, so it's in the EU's interest to set up systems asap for this to continue

The euro is interesting regarding the island of Ireland... Would NI benefit from being in the eurozone? (It's already possible to withdraw euros from ATMs in Belfast)

jas May is probably NOT bluffing
The hardcore ERG certainly aren't - they WANT No Deal

Don't assume that she, or the ERG, give a damn about ordinary people suffering
Or we wouldn't have UC or bedroom tax or NHS cuts or social care cuts or ....

if she Revokes, then the Tory party would tear itself apart for years, in the most bitter civil war
They might well split, which would condemn them to perpetutal opposition, under FPTP

I'm not sure if she would ever put country first, if that means the death of her party.

She may not even have the votes, as a hardcore of 80-100 Tories would probably vote against Revoke,
although many might reluctantly vote WA

Corbyn wouldn't help her, because No Deal Brexit under the Tories gives the chance to make this Labour's hard left century

Even if Revoke happens, if Labour vote against, then all the Leaver anger would be directed against the Tories

with No Deal she can keep the Tory party together

The electoral damage won't be as bad as the party splitting - which would mean annihilation.

She'd expect the rightwing tabloids to blame everyone else - the EU, treacherous Remainers, immigrants .. - for all the bad effects,
but never Brexit itself

The media can't confess to having made a mistake, because Brexit is too huge.

I couldnt put my finger on what bugs me about the WA for ages but i think I feel as if the WA might be a boiling frog approach. Yeah there's endless possibilities with it but i don't think we'll end up with a cosy nice option. Not while we have the Tories and voters happy to crap over those on low incomes/benefits and illnesses/disability.

WA is at best a temporary refuge and a false prophecy that helps leavers feel good about their xenophobic vote because they won't immediately run out of eye drops.

As a carer in March I'll be glad of WA but later down the line...probably not. The NHS/social care won't be sorted or anywhere nearer being sorted. Just read the other day that they've stopped handing out DP's meds to all new patients completely. It's a preventive med without it patients spend a lot of time in a&e with tubes down their throats or y'know they die. The story gets spun that the pre med isn't necessary then as it not directly life saving because its note the oxygen tube or the adrenaline and everybody skips over the fact the patient wouldn't need their life saving if they had a preventative med. also its fucking cheaper to give preventative

I can't support this WA it'll kill people in that very insipid, slow, quiet, English, upper/middle class way.

BCF - this WA is a bad deal, ties UK, potential to an agreement we can't get out off, with the EU's say so.

Why would anyone wish this for their country?

UC etc hit poorer families ie on benefits - working or otherwise, they don't vote Tory, so of course she doesn't give a shit.

This deal cannot keep coming back to the HoC, even for a 2nd attempt, it would need to be modified... by whom and in what?

Obv i don't know 17m people, but none of the leavers i know blame the EU or Remainers, they blame her! she has tied herself to Brexit, so i think the tories could escape relatively intact, with aPV or revoke especially if JC remains in charge of the Labour party !

She is a liar and cannot be trusted on this WA or anything else.

The EU have got bored with the UK buggering around. The longer things get dragged out the better prepared they will be when the UK actually goes.
I wonder at which point Mrs Merkel will tell the German manufacturers to pull out of the UK. Would they do this in unison with the PSA group (primarily French)?

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/23/may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-britain

May has just lied and lied and lied. She lied when she said we could make a success of Brexit. She lied when she said we could secure full market access while maintaining full sovereignty. She lied when she said she could get a trade deal before the end of Article 50. She lied when she said there would be no need for transition. She lied when she said it would not need to be extended. She lied when she said Britain might choose between either extension or the backstop. She's lying now when she says this is a good deal for Britain, or that any kind of economic or political success might follow from it, or that it is in the national interest. Her administration has been defined by a relentless attempt to conceal the reality of Brexit from public and parliament, so she can survive another day, another week, another month. It is such a shabby, tawdry spectacle

And now here we are, staring at a deal so unimaginably bad that no-one wants it. Not the EU, not the UK, not Brexiters, not Remainers, not Tories, and not Labour

No-one wants it and we're told to do it anyway. That is an insane proposition and it should be rejected

EU National here too. Been following this thread for a while.
One thing I really don't understand is how is it possible to be against the backstop? If backstop=GFA then how can it be that so many MPs are calling for it to be scrapped? I mean, isn't it in everyone's interests to maintain peace in NI? How can possibly not want the backstop

jas, Hazard I would only support the WA if there is no hope of Remain or of Norway+
because in that case it is automatic No Deal

So, that's by February / March, when we should be able to see if anything else is feasible
I won't believe then in Remain unicorns, any more than Leave ones

No Deal would be the worst disaster
That's what to prep for - in the UK

The worst possible case for WA is that we end up with No Deal after a few years transition,
in which the E27 will have updated their customs infrastructure to cope with Uk exports as a 3rd country.

More likely we end up with that CU+++, with hope for Norway++, or a Fast Track Rejoin

BigChoc I know we do not qualify for the euro, but a lot of people do not know about the stringent criteria attached to it. In fact, for a lot of people eurozone equals single currency and nothing else. Just printing the same currency.

Jas - My UK family is solidly Leave.
They blame the treacherous (remainer) civil service and above all, the EU for "punishing" us

Read what Leavers online say - including those on MN - they say the same

After a No Deal, the rightwing press will whip up the hunt for scapegoats who aren't Tory Brexiters
Look at their past track record in averting blame for Tory screwups:

They successfully blamed Labour for the financial crash, the end of defined benefit pensions, the national deficit & the need for austerity

They blamed the "champagne socialists" for the effects of Thatcher's de-industrialisation of the North and selling off the council house stock

This is very interesting, the papers for the A50 case before the European Court of Justice on Tuesday: goodlawproject.org/resources-article-50-hearing/

The hearing won’t be streamed live, but it seems that tweeting will be allowed (the hearing is open to the public).

Loletta
Since the GFA has just about held the peace in NI the tensions gave dropped out of the rest of the UK's thoughts.
The ERG who REALLY want to crash out with no deal are doing it primarily to make a lot of money personally and simply don't care .
Others who have high value investments want to crash out to avoid new tax legislation later in 2019. Since even the UK Northern Ireland secretary (Karen Brady?) was unaware of voting patterns and the various 'fault lines' in NI it is an indication that there are too many in the government who really don't care about NI. Some of the EU negotiators were involved in the GFA and understand the issues and as a result have been prepared to put a lot of effort into making sure it remains. They could just have said it was a UK 'internal' matter but they understand it's wider implications.

Loletta Brexiters and even many Remainer MPs think:

that Irish Republicans would never return to violence,
that they can bully the Irish Republic into watering down the GFA

• and that the EU will tolerate this because they need us more etc

The demands to scrap the backstop are to remove any limits on "sovereignty",
i.e. Britain's right to do what it wants, with being constrained by the damage this causes to others

The backstop offends people in Scotland, who see NI getting special treatment & economic advantages over Scotland

It angers those who strongly support the UK union, because they think treating NI differently is more likely to cause the Union to split

It especially angers the DUP, who are paranoid that GB / the Tories will sell them out

Personally, I think the Brexit vote signalled the end of the UK as a Union:
it is just a matter of when and how bitterly

The EU referendum showed that English Nationalists can dominate the other 3 countries - and don't give a damn about them
So
it has speeded up Irish Unification
and boosted the cause of Scottish Independence

Thanks for the explanation. What I also can't get to the bottom of is how does the ERG propose to avoid a hard border in the event of no deal? If the UK (including NI) reverts to WHO rules, there has to be a border between Ireland and NI, right? Where else? Am I missing something really obvious?

Thanks, that's very useful, MissMoon

afaik, The EU Commission and the EU Council will - like the UK govt - argue that revocation is not unilateral.

The ECJ would really be "brave" - in the Yes, Minister meaning ! - if they go against the political establishments of both the EU and the UK.

Lawyers have said not the ECJ would not normally decide before 2 January, but I hope the ECJ make an exception, in view of the urgency and effects on Brexit.

BCF - i can only speak as i find, though i ve never heard anyone blame any Socialists for selling off council housing, in fact tories rather gloat in their achievement!
Labour are blamed for GFC because they were in power, just as tories blamed for ERM fiasco, as they were in power.

Tories will be forever associated with brexit, it is an inescapable truth.

Feb/March is far far too late because once that WA is through Parliament in December- that is it, game over, the next stop is Brexit from March 30th and very very uncertain future.

The ERG, have no plan to deal with the NI border. They actually suggested putting up checkpoints or some form of infrastructure if I remember correctly.

Loletta The ERG want to abandon controls at all UK borders for imports from all countries

• which is legal under WTO rules, since it treats all countries equally

Their vision is free trade and deregulation, to emulate the US
and even to compete on a level playing field with China, India, Singapore

No Deal gives them their chance to sweep away all that onconvenient "red tape" that protects workers, the environment, consumers etc
and of course to end the welfare state andto slash taxes for businesses and the wealthy

jas It's what May and the Tory party chiefs think they can get away with:

a Tory party civil war that splits the party into 2 is certain annihilation under FPTP

a No Deal, they think they can bounce back from
They expect Corbyn to screw up badly if he becomes PM, so they hope they'd only lose the 1st GE after Brexit