Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

leclerc Im French

{So, the HoC need a majority to ask for 3 weeks extension
and then a majority to approve the 6 month Action Plan which includes a Remain option^
AND any E27 country could still veto that extension}.
So that suggests 'cat in hell' chance to me. I see the Spanish intervention as more of a warning shot which should make negotiators concerned about other issues in the woodwork. Of course there is fishing already.

EtVoila
I suspected so by your username, but you can never tell.
I am 'Brit in France'. With the current 'excitement' I don't think Brexit really features here. While I was in England everyone I knew had a 'positive European' view. Sadly I think you are on the periphery of a British problem that needed solving.

BigChoc I do not want cliff edge really, but my brain cannot take this leaver shit any more.
Did you know that after Brexit the Premier league will be better, because foreign players get over excited and they sweat a lot (unlike English players)? Even DS had to call this out and he tried very hard to be quiet.

Bear in mind we're getting a 50p piece to "celebrate" Brexit. More groupthink to push the "it's what we all wanted message".

Haven't yet worked out what to do with my 50p's when I get them. You aren't allowed to refuse them in change (and I suspect "regular" 50p's will suddenly look like hens' teeth). I'll have to find a cause that would irritate Brexiteers the most.

Theresa has handed in her homework, 40 reasons why the 'deal' is a good one, published on UK Gov website and I presume elsewhere.
Still trumpeting stuff that the UK always had as the first few items mind you.

Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwallar
"What he has done, wittingly or unwittingly, is to work with the Kremlin’s agenda." Extraordinary quote from MP & expert on Russian active measures
@IoWBobSeely
in this incredible in-depth profile on Seamus Milne -
@jeremycorbyn
's chief advisor

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-seumas-milne-jeremy-corbyns-chief-strategist-is-emerging-as-one-of-the-most-powerful-people-in-britain-9bswm2qw2

From Nicola Sturgeon's Facebook account

I don’t say this lightly, but almost nothing in this desperate letter is true. This is a bad deal, driven by the PM’s self defeating red lines and continual pandering to the right of her own party. Parliament should reject it and back a better alternative - SM/CU or #PeoplesVote

...with the link to the BBC's article about May's letter
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46332884?fbclid=IwAR3wIg7rugTxO-A9eNSDrvGx2nTW9mOui2f6NyYqJ82DjlSxbxWOggkO1q8

Hasn't labour/JC clarified today their not backing WA? JC had a concrete opinion. Shocking times.

The comments on Nicola's posts are interesting: you can see quite a lot of pressure from Indy supporters for her to declare UDI, which I personally don't agree with (Spain being one of the reasons )

Nicola's Facebook page

Don’t twist my words Choc

I have never said Kerr’s view was anything but an opinion, and made no mention of unilateral revocation of A50. I am not endorsing his perspective merely noting it.

There is no such thing as mainstream legal opinion, we are in unchartered seas constitutionally. Legal opinion in London is all over the place.

There are growing noises from Brussels about the possibilities of extension, and about the options given regime change, for example. I discussed that with an ex MEP this week. DAG refers to the latter in his tweets.

We do not have a precise view of where we stand. Until the outcome of the ECJ case the issue of unilateral revocation of Art50 is not clear.

The Institute of Government has said:

“there is no obvious answer to the question of what “no” vote to “no deal” would mean. That would depend on what constitutes a revocation of an Article 50 notice in UK law, and whether unilateral revocation is possible in EU law. Both of those questions are unanswered”

The false certainties you are peddling are not definitive.

Trying to paint those who disagree with you as having false hope is dishonest. I don’t have any hope this will not end in clusterfuck. This is not about hope, but about the variables under discussion.

I don’t have much hope of this WA not being agreed by Parliament, out of fear as much as anything. If It looks as if May can’t get it through Parliament it may be revised and an edited version may feasibly pass. The Sunday Telegraph reports ‘senior ministers’ as discussing with Brussels a Norway style Plan B with a clearer exit mechanism.

A poor decision under pressure is a poor outcome for everyone including the EU. And they know it, even if you don’t.

Looks like the coming week is gonna be something

DAG refers to the latter in his tweets.

Or rather it is referred to on his Twitter thread, the comment was made by someone else.

Keep losing this thread so checking in by posting if that's ok. As ever, thank you very much for it.

Parliament can vote for any fantasy they like

Parliament can NOT vote to force the EU to do anything

Any single one of the E27 can veto an extension^

Unless the ECJ decides otherwise, any one can veto a Revoke

A few countries like Estonia may even gain overall from Brexit, with companies moving there

Germans (I talk to in Germany) are absolutely fed up at being pissed around while the UK fights with itself
Merkel was pissed off when Cameron, after she went out on a limb to get him concessions, still called his bloody stupid referendum
She is beyond pissed now and will reportedly - if my CDU chum is correct - not lift â finger to help the EU any more

She might even be another one who could veto an extension

The UK has flushed its reputation and goodwill built over decades down the toilet
It is a laughing stock

Now it expects the EU to be pissed around for another 3 weeks, plus 6 months.
What bloody British arrogance

The HoC should either vote to Revoke - if it is allowed - or vote for the WA

That's Merkel won't lift a finger to help the EU Commission to get any extension

The dawning realisation of how bad no deal will be will hit every MP.

Will it? They seem to have been particularly dense for the last two and a half years.

Nothing stops a new govt later ordering a proper enquiry into the ref and the guilty going to jail if their cries are proven

It will need a big clear out of the current dead wood in Parliament, before that happens!

There is no such thing as mainstream legal opinion, we are in unchartered seas constitutionally. Legal opinion in London is all over the place.

I agree, I work with constitutional lawyers, and opinions are divided. Many lawyers thought the Miller case wouldn’t succeed, but it did. We won’t know until it’s tested in court.

This is why I won’t support the WA, until there is no other option left. It puts our country at an incredible disadvantage:

Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge

Bombshell from Macron who suggests if EU doesn't get what it wants on fishing it'll force UK into backstop customs union. WA says fisheries deal should be done by July 2020 so coincides with decision on whether to trigger backstop. Brexiteer MPs' worst nightmare about May's deal.

I hope that if we get to February / March
and Remainer MPs have fewer votes for their amendments than the WA got,
that they will finally put arrogance behind them and just vote to stop No Deal

We are in this mess not just because Brexiter leaders lied,
but because supposedly dedicated Remain Leaders are so bloody incompetent

If that coward Grieve hadn't backed down,
he could have gone for an amendment on the A50 deal that there if there was No Deal, then there would be an automatic revoke unless the HoC voted specifically to Brexit with No Deal

He might well not have succeeded, but he didn't even try
May gave him a meaningless non-binding promise, which she promptly broke.

If that incompetent Kerr had (really) meant A50 to be unilaterally revocable,
then he should have written it specifically into the article,
instead of writing that the exit is within 2 years unless the time is unanimously extended

Such a short article - and he screwed up.

And we are supposed to risk No Deal and put our faith in these idiots to solve a far more complicted mess this time.

{ until there is no other option left. It puts our country at an incredible disadvantage:}
Having a bunch of self serving muppets in government and a significant number in opposition puts the UK at a significant disadvantage. No one can't blame the EU for that.
It is their job to have a plan and be tough. May is Talking tough and (probably) has a plan but unfortunately a very bad one.

The WA puts the UK on the Naughty Step, like a tantrumming toddler

I don't blame the EU for this - they just ran out of patience.
(me too)
I blame only the arrogance, ignorance and stupidity of UK politicians

The ECJ decision is absolutely uncharted territory

However, even if they say the UK can unilaterally revoke:

What conditions will they set
e.g. compensation to the EU, losing optouts, restriction on invoking A50 again later

AND
Will they ORDER the EU - i.e. all 27 countries - to give an extension if asked for

OR
Will they just say that the HoC / PM can revoke up to 29 March ?

Ordering an extension would massively piss off Germany, probably others.
A very political step by the ECJ

It would also piss off the Commission - who have always maintained that revocation & extension must be unanimous,
or the A50 becomes a wrecking tool for any disruptive member to keep using