Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

merry I make that point here, to show that I am an arch-federalist who will accept this WA, as the best we can do atm,

when I really want to Remain for emotional reasons and loyalty, not just the transactional reasons that most Remainers have

This is a problem, btw:
Most in the E27 countries do feel part of a European demos, an emotional connection

Even the far right have accepted few people actually want to leave the EU, just to change policy on refugees and change their own govt policies to help those left behind by globalisarion and new tech.

The EU as an organisation would much prefer us to build up some actual affection for them, not just see them as a business deal.

pretty NS is one of the few politicians who has actually faced up to the demographic crisis,
developed sensible policies and brought most of her country along with her.

She also doesn't use immigrants as useful targets whenever she wants to whip up some support,
unlike the nasty May, who is really suited to a nasty party - I can't think why she criticised beng "nasty" in her famous speech years ago.

This deal is the equivalent of Hitler allowing Vichy France to remain "independent" after pictures of tanks down the Champs-Élysées were published. It's going to happen, doubtless. But I don't have to like it. And I don't feel I particularly have to support it.

Good analogy and this government does feel Pétainiste.

BigChoc - that's probably why my constituency not only voted strongly Yes in the Indyref but also 70% Remain in the EU Referendum

Despite , no because of , its very high immigrant demographic - primarily Commonwealth, not just EU.

Ds' old (catchment) primary school was 60% English as An Additional Language (mostly Urdu), the closer one(but not our catchment ) was 98% EAL

At his old secondary school there are 55, fifty five , languages spoken. 10% of its intake is Roma , which has a significant effect on its exam results (which are nevertheless well above their "virtual comparator" ).

Nicola is my constituency MSP

That means we've harmonised our tariffs with those of the EU and have to apply the same duty rate to whichever country they do a deal with. But there is no reciprocal duty for those countries to open up their markets to us, because the deal is for EU member states - not countries in bespoke backstop agreements which have been devised to stop them imploding.

Going back to the Ian Dunt article, doesn't this mean that 3rd party countries with EU deals are better off if we remain in permanent transition?

^Nothing stops a new govt later ordering a proper enquiry into the ref
and the guilty going to jail if their cries are proven^

Ah, the Timothy Evans approach !

Pretty
I am on your 'side'!
I am sure that Scotland would suffer if there was a large influx of 'retirement age' immigrants who were quite demanding on the health service, rather than 20 somethings with vim and vigour with brilliant entrepreneurial ideas. Either CAN be managed with some creative thinking.
Interesting and to a small degree relieved that even Marine Le Penn's party would want to stay in the EU. I imagine many of the policies are not good but having the EU parliament to 'call up' is reassuring.
I feel it is a shame that Mr Macron is getting a bit of a battering.

For me, it is a positive advantage that this nasty government won't be able to sell us off to the USA vulture capitalists
That would indeed result in a Vichy govt

Permanently

Once in a US FTA, we would probably never be able to get out - even the EU wouldn't risk a massive trade war with the US to help idiots who realised too late what they had done

This WA is parking the disfunctional UK in a safe place for a few years, to get its shit together
Time for public pressure to have time to work on the govt

If the UK still chooses No Deal later, instead of Norway++, well Ok you get your independence back then

DG You want the UK to jump over a cliff, to prove moral superiority ?

Merry We would be better off in a long transition, while we hopefully negotiate Norway++

• or even the Fast Track Rejoin, if public opinion shifts enough

The ERG and other hard Brexiters hate this WA, because it opens up these possibilities.

They want to drive us off a cliff now, so there's no turning back, even if public opinion shifts

The ERG and the Atlantic Bridge mob, have the US FTA already lined up to sign - they don't need time to "negotiate" because disaster capitalists in both countries have common goals

TisIleclerc - from what I recall from living in France for a year (as part of my degree), the French are masters at protesting in between elections and even in the first round of voting, and then being sensible in the second round

That's what has always scuppered Le Pen (father and daughter)

Not saying that Macron would win next time around - but just that the far-right FN usually stumbles at the last hurdle.

If only we had a similar safeguard in the UK

Merry We would be better off in a long transition

Yes, but May seems to be arguing that we can be in transition and make great trade deals. I'm not arguing for or against the WA - I just don't think her letter makes sense.

I think I must be out of sync with the current zeitgeist. I would really prefer a letter that just said 'like it or lump it, nobody has come up with any thing better'. Although to be fair David Lidington does seem to be making that argument. Maybe they are playing good cop bad cop.

I’ve said before there are two principal no deal outcomes and they are not the same.

Intentional no deal - whereby Parliament actively votes for no deal hard Brexit.

Unintentional no deal - whereby the government fails to agree in the allotted time.

The second scenario does not mean automatic ejection from the EU just because the clock stopped, we can apply for an extension.

According to Lord Kerr, Dominic Grieve et al we cannot be ‘expelled’ from the EU, and I quote:

The Brexiters create the impression that is because of the way article 50 is written that having sent in a letter on 29 March 2017 we must leave automatically on 29 March 2019 at the latest. That is not true. It is misleading to suggest that a decision that we are taking autonomously in this country about the timing of our departure, we are required to take by a provision of EU treaty

While the WA states that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th, it also gives the Government power to require to Parliament ‘to amend the definition of exit day’ to a later date’.

Our government does not have a mandate to take the U.K. out of the EU with no deal, so faced with that it will have to ask the EU for more time.

Kerr et al have discussed this with Brussels and the EU states, and have been told that the UK would get an extension to Art 50.

A Tory MP on Radio 4 echoed this, saying that they would be given 3 week period to come up with a solution. The most likely decision in that 3 week period would be to ask for a 6 month extension to article 50.

These are the general noises here.

DG You want the UK to jump over a cliff, to prove moral superiority ?

I haven't said that. What I am saying is - like the voting Labour experience - any support for this deal will be back-engineered to "prove" support for Brexit and used to quietly forget any anomalies in the referendum. After all this is what people wanted will be the mantra on 30th March.

Anyway, as already noted, it's moot. No one gives shit what I, you or any other poster on any forum anywhere thinks. That much is plain.

The only condiment that could make this deal "worthwhile" is the implosion of Tory and Labour parties, and a refactoring of UK politics to represent the 21st century reality of Britain, not the fossilised 18th century history of it.

I guess I just don't like my family being called names - makes me rage.

pretty can I move to your constituency? It sounds a much nicer place than where I live atm

Feel very down with all if it atm. I think fir me, the damage is done. Whatever the outcome I have been told I don't belong to the uk (or is it England? Not sure anymore). That I'm lesser than.
I'm grieving for the country I moved to 20 years ago. But all this political stance has just destroyed everything for me.
Up to the point that I just don't care anymore if it's no deal or not. Bo Deal just means I would probably move out a bit sooner. And it's going to be harder fir my (BRITISH!!) children.
But the damage, the attitude to forr

You would be very welcome EtVoilaBrexit

I suspect that there are a lot of Westministenders planning on moving to Scotland in the event of a hard/no deal Brexit and subsequent Scottish Independence

I'm already planning the refugee camp in my back garden - knowing my downstairs' neighbours, I know they'd be happy to help

{What I am saying is - like the voting Labour experience}
Somehow I equate that to wetting my pants on a cold day.

pretty can I move to your constituency? It sounds like a very nice place to live compare to mine.

Feeling very down atm with all of that.
I feel like I've lost something really big. I'm grieving fir the country I moved to 20 years ago. The one where I was treated as an equal and where I was a valued member of the society.
Now I'm just other. An immigrant. One that jumps queues, take jobs from British people. Lesser than.
These 2.5 years have been hurtful like hell. It has destroyed the relationship I had with this country as well my respect for it tbh.
Now I don't care. Deal, No Deal, the damage within the society is done. The country is split and will remain split fir a long time. Xenophobic discourse is the norm so much so that people don't even noticed it anymore.
Apparently there is nothing in there fir the uk when EU citizens are settled here.
There is nothing in this country for me either.
You (as in the British population and it's politicians) have destroyed it all. :(

tatiana Lord Kerr- who fucked up and wrote the A50 so badly -
and Dominic Grieve - who keeps indulging in wishful thinking about what the HOC can do & getting it wrong -
are NOT mainstream legal opinion

They both keep indulging in dangerous wishful thinking, that gives some remainers false security

Kerr talks through his arse e.g. claims that A50 can be unilaterally revoked

• we wouldn't have a bloody ECJ case ongoing if that was so clear

There is NO constitutional requirement for Parliament to specifically agree to No Deal

When Parliament passed the A50 invocation, they did NOT specify it had to be with a WA

The A50 results in No Deal automatically at the end of 2 years

UNLESS

the EU and the UK BOTH
either
agree a WA
or
an extension

Currently, there are nowhere near the HoC votes for an extension
or a PV

The EU have given very clear indications today that they want the UK to bloody get on with it
and not risk No Deal
The message coming out of the EU - or Germany - is that No Deal MUST be avoided

The HoC should either pass a motion to revoke - and hope the EU / ECJ agree - or pass the WA
and stop expecting a PV to dig them out of their hole

pretty You & your neigbours sounds so lovely 🙂
Scotland the Brave !
(and England the Confused)

EtVoila
If you don't mind me asking, which country were you from?

DG You want the UK to jump over a cliff, to prove moral superiority ?

It is not a question for me, but at the moment I would. I have just finished listening to how we could have left ages ago and we should have just slammed the door behind us. While discussing how our jobs are in danger. I despair.

The EU - especially Merkel - have run out of patience with the Uk arguing with itself

There is a possible 3 week extension under strict conditions
IFF all 27 EU members agree, which is no longer a foregone conclusion

• the HoC come up with a definite action plan during those 3 weeks

+ they will NOT be allowed an extension of 6 months to discuss further,
only to carry out a specific plan with Remain as an option:

^either a PV that includes Remain, or a GE where Labour and / or Tory have Remain in their manifesto

So, the HoC need a majority to ask for 3 weeks extension
and then
a majority to approve the 6 month Action Plan which includes a Remain option^

AND any E27 country could still veto that extension

Elanade Many in the EU have run out of patience too
Hence the WA as last chance
No more negotiations

They are fed up with being blackmailed by the threat of No Deal - it is seen as blackmail in Germany, at least

Once in transition, there is a way back, all the way back to membership now

What would bother me is that now is the time for the 'leave' camp to be bubbling with brilliant ideas for rejuvenating the UK economy to really sell and convince everyone that leaving really is the best course of action.
What I feel is that on 30 March everyone will be standing around trying to work out who had the plan. A rerun of the WA to some extent, get someone else to write it.
On the basis that a sizeable chunk of EU and even overseas based industry may well be 'walking' whatever plan is hatched needs to be damn good.