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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

OP posts:
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merrymouse · 25/11/2018 09:13

I know leClerc, but you wouldn’t know that from May’s letter which implies that this is the deal.

1tisILeClerc · 25/11/2018 09:39

Merry
The trouble is that it isn't really 'the deal'. They have got the map out and are still wondering whether to head North or South with the EU having used a bright highlighter showing South.
The UK have just decided to put their coat on but apart from that haven't even decided whether to walk or use a bicycle or car.

1tisILeClerc · 25/11/2018 09:40

And there are still some in the UK who think the UK should be using a different map.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2018 10:14

The WA is like strapping on a parachute before you jump out of the plane

You could still decide not to pull the cord
so you decide if you reduce speed and land safely, or crash down breaking everything.

Not strapping on the parachute makes the decision early, to crash
Too late to decide, while you are plummetting down, that you'd really rather not

bellinisurge · 25/11/2018 10:19

Please lobby your MP to support this deal. We may hate it for all sorts of reasons but No Deal would be dreadful for every single one of us (unless you are a disaster capitalist).
I voted Remain. I would rather we leave with this deal than leave with No Deal.
It is as simple as that.

EtVoilaBrexit · 25/11/2018 10:20

Brexit: EU leaders agree to back Theresa May's deal

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-summit-brexit-deal-agreement-theresa-may-michel-barnier-donald-tusk-a8650716.html

At least we now have an agreement accepted by the EU that allows to avoid Brexit. Worth remembering we didn’t have before even though everyone seemed to have behaved as if we had.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2018 10:21

pretty It was realising with horror, that noone had a Brexit plan, that made me suddenly appreciate the SNP Indy plan !

Also, right after the ref, NS suddenly shot up for ever in my estimation:
when she stood up in public and said that the immigrants in Scotland were all welcome there and she wanted them to stay

That's standing up immediately to do the right thing, without checking focus groups, opinion polls or the media

That made you the only Brexit star, Nicola ⭐️

DGRossetti · 25/11/2018 10:24

I wonder if "meaningful vote" will be interpreted as the opposite of "advisory referendum", and May just ignores it ?

DGRossetti · 25/11/2018 10:27

.

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.
BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2018 10:28

I agree, Bellini that the #1 priority is avoiding the disaster of No Deal

imo, contact your MP saying you want Remain if possible, but if not, then vote for the WA

We want Remain,
but those who claim not to see the difference between the WA and No Deal really need to put anger & hurt pride behind them and look at the facts

  • and I'm speaking as one of those dreaded arch-federalists: a Remainer who feels European and loves the EU for itself, not just because I want to avoid economic disaster
bellinisurge · 25/11/2018 10:28

If it fails to go through she can have another go. The dawning realisation of how bad no deal will be will hit every MP. They will be looking down into the abyss and will vote for it second time around.

DGRossetti · 25/11/2018 10:28

www.heraldscotland.com/news/17254271.scots-tory-in-435000-brexit-dark-money-row-facing-questions-by-mps/

heraldscotland.com
Scots Tory in £435,000 Brexit 'dark money' row facing questions by MPs
Exclusive by Paul Hutcheon
5-6 minutes

A former Scottish Tory candidate linked to a controversial “dark money” donation during the Brexit referendum could be asked to appear in front of MPs.

Richard Cook, chair of the secretive Constitutional Research Council, which famously gave £435,000 to the Democratic Unionist Party during the campaign, has been contacted about the CRC by a powerful Westminster committee.

A spokeswoman for the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) committee said they had received “nothing in response” from Cook, adding that one of the options available was to call him to give evidence in person.

However, a spokesman for Cook said: “Richard replied five days in advance of the deadline. DCMS lost the letter.”

READ MORE: Ex-SNP councillor reprimanded over £1,500 cash gift from fellow Nationalist

The row came as the Prime Minister's EU withdrawal plan came under further attack at the DUP conference yesterday.

The Leave side secured victory in the EU referendum, but the funding of a number of pro-Brexit groups has been under the spotlight since the result.

In particular, businessman Arron Banks has come under pressure over the millions of pounds he gave to an unofficial Brexit campaign, leave.eu.

Another controversy erupted after it emerged that the little-known CRC had provided Northern Ireland’s pro-Brexit DUP with £435,000 during the campaign.

Around £425,000 of the sum was spent on an advert in the Metro newspaper, which is not sold in Northern Ireland.

The DUP did not have to reveal that the CRC was the source due to donor secrecy laws, but the body’s identity was declared voluntarily.

Since then the CRC has faced questions about where it got the so-called “dark money” donation from, but few details have come to light.

Analysis: John Swinney faces a tricky balancing act on teacher pay

Cook, a former senior office bearer in the Scottish Tories who lives in East Renfrewshire, chairs the CRC, which was founded around four years ago.

In an interview last year with the Sunday Herald, he said: “The CRC is regulated by the Electoral Commission. We operate solely in the UK. We accept donations only from eligible UK donors. We donate solely to permissible UK entities.”

However, he declined to offer any information on the identities of CRC donors and members: “I’m not going to get into the donors, like I am not going to get into the members.”

Asked how much money had been donated to the CRC since 2014, he said at the time: “I’m not going to get into that.”

On whether it was over £1m, he replied: “Not going to get into that.”

Cook attended the UK Conservative conference after the Brexit referendum and Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson recently confirmed he is still a party member.

It can now be revealed that Westminster’s DCMS committee has written to Cook about the CRC. The Committee has a high-profile inquiry into “disinformation and ‘fake news’” and part of the probe has included a focus on issues relating to the pro-Leave side.

However, there was confusion last night over the contact between the committee and Cook.

After this newspaper informed the committee that Cook’s spokesman had said that “Richard replied five days in advance of the deadline”, a committee spokeswoman said yesterday:

“I have just confirmed with the Clerk of the Committee that we have received nothing in response from Richard Cook. The letter to him refers to the fact that if the Committee’s questions are not responded to, one of the options available to the Committee is to call him to give evidence in person.”

READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon challenges Theresa May to Brexit debate

A spokesman for Cook said of the DCMS response: “You got my answer. Richard responded. If they haven’t found it that’s their problem. Don't have time for any further discussion on this matter.”

The Electoral Commission told the DCMS inquiry this month that it was satisfied the £435,000 donation to the DUP was permissible under UK law.

Louise Edwards, the head of regulation at the Commission, said: "We cannot talk about donations to the DUP from that period and the reason for that is because having verified those reports the donors on them were permissible.”

In September, interim Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw backed greater openness from the CRC. Asked if Cook should be transparent about the identity of CRC donors, he said: “From my perspective, yes.”

An SNP spokesperson said: "There are serious questions to answer over how such a large sum of money found its way from the CRC campaign into the hands of the DUP. Richard Cook should help the DCMS committee with their investigations and provide some much needed clarity on the issue."

1tisILeClerc · 25/11/2018 10:30

Given NS statement as you have just commented, unless qualified is a bit rash I feel as Mrs Merkel said that at a point when there were many immigrants (for various reasons) in Europe and although admirable and the right thing to do humanitarian wise, overdid it and was too far ahead of EU central's thinking.
Immigration with proper planning and infrastructure support is of course the way to go.

DGRossetti · 25/11/2018 10:30

So remainers are being asked to "look the other way" and just back this deal.

Fuck that.

1tisILeClerc · 25/11/2018 10:35

{The dawning realisation of how bad no deal will be will hit every MP. }
2 1/2 years to 'dawn' on MPs that it is a bad idea, how thick can they be?
We are supposed to have respect for them?
A child poking a cat for more than a minute or two learns VERY quickly.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2018 10:35

Yup, etVoila we now have a clear road to avoid the cliff edge disaster :

. A transition period which can be extended
. Safeguarding the GFA and no NI border and
. Right to permanent residence for the 3 million +1 million
. Settling the bills so we don't become the pariah that noone else will trust

"Arriving at the summit, Europe’s top brass urged the British parliament, which will now get a vote on the agreement, to also back it.

Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said the agreement was “the best deal possible”

and that the EU would not change its “fundamental position” in any attempt to renegotiate it."

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2018 10:38

DG Remainers are being urged to face facts and not join the ERG in leaping over the cliff - or in their case throwing the UK over, as they have their own parachutes.

1tisILeClerc · 25/11/2018 10:44

With the iconic white cliffs of Dover comes the warning 'beware falling rocks'.

DGRossetti · 25/11/2018 10:47

DG Remainers are being urged to face facts

Like the fact that at best the referendum underpinning this deal wasn't properly conducted and at worst it was illegal ?

Sorry, Tories might be happy buying dodgy goods off the back of a lorry. But as they keep telling us, it's our compliance in such activities that encourages criminality.

Accept this deal, and you're simply validating the criminal behaviour now being uncovered behind the referendum. It's not a political choice. It's a moral one. By the governments own rhetoric, it would be like having my nails done while waiting for my hand car wash.

Also, once they get away with it once ....

(Why is no one else suggesting this tack ? Or are they being curated out of earshot ?)

That said, it's all pretty moot isn't it ? If you like this deal - do nothing. If you don't you have nothing you can do.

This deal is the equivalent of Hitler allowing Vichy France to remain "independent" after pictures of tanks down the Champs-Élysées were published. It's going to happen, doubtless. But I don't have to like it. And I don't feel I particularly have to support it.

PCPlumsTruncheon · 25/11/2018 10:47

That letter mentions £394m per week for the NHS. My understanding is that she isn’t actually saying that that is how much we have been sending to the EU, it’s the extra amount the government is going to invest in the NHS.
When announcing extra money, it is usually presented as the amount that they have agreed to spend over the next year /2 years/5 years, not per week.
I can imagine that lots of people will just see £394 pw and NHS and think that the figure on the bus was an underestimate.

merrymouse · 25/11/2018 10:53

and I'm speaking as one of those dreaded arch-federalists:
a Remainer who feels European and loves the EU for itself, not just because I want to avoid economic disaster

The difficulty with making that point is that a majority in the UK either see membership of the EU as a completely pragmatic choice or want to leave. People who seek 'ever closer union' are in a definite minority, so any course of action that seems to be driven by a future desire to get back into the EU on any terms will meet a lot or resistance.

merrymouse · 25/11/2018 10:54

I can imagine that lots of people will just see £394 pw and NHS and think that the figure on the bus was an underestimate.

Agree - I think that is intentional.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2018 10:58

DG The price of our moral stand would be paid in the case of No Deal by the most vulnerable,
by those reliant on essential meds, those already struggling to afford decent food for their families.

It's not Vichy France:
the EU is not Hitler
and will protect us a damn sight better than our own govt from threats like a US FTA / conquest

We can choose Norway++ and get our voice back

Nothing stops a new govt later ordering a proper enquiry into the ref
and the guilty going to jail if their cries are proven

prettybird · 25/11/2018 10:58

1tisILeClerc - Scotland wants and needs more immigration (as outlined in Scotland's Future - it just isn't allowed it Hmm

A responsible government of course plans for the required infrastructure - but the Scottish Government does so with one arm tied behind its back Sad - while knowing that there is a crisis coming with an aging population and a need for a younger, healthy workforce Angry