Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

[RedToothBrush]

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

This expose Chequers bollocks. That's the easy bit. The hard bit is getting an alternative deal. It won't happen. Just silly willy waving by the ERG who are overplaying their hand.

He says the document will "expose Chequers"

The absolute gall of a Conservative talking about 'exposing Chequers' and changing the PM again 4 months before the date we are supposed to leave.

Who would decide on the questions in a People's Vote ? How would they be agreed ? Is there time for another vote ? I think if there was another vote there would be division/huge disagreement about what would be on the ballot. Everytime I hear an MP or commentator asking for a People's Vote on the news etc it frustrates me that the interviewer rarely delves into the issue or asks for further detail. I am cautious about the whole idea because of the lack of detail and clarity.

The electoral commission would decide the exact words.

585 pages of 'legalese' has it.
On the basis that some 'legal' grown ups on both sides were involved in the writing it should be quite fair.
There is no 'alternative' in terms of 'deal', that chance has been comprehensively blown by the 'willy wavers'.

Sad to hear that a woman has died in an accident during the French fuel protests. (SKY news).

The DUP telling business they've got it wrong is uncannily like John Redwood telling the boss of Siemens how his business runs last night on any questions.

Remember that time John Redwood said we should all have British cars?

The rats are turning on each other now. There is an interesting thread on twitter from the Leave Alliance. This is their opening pitch.........1. Even on a cursory inspection it is easy to see that May's deal is BRINO. The fault lies squarely with the ERG Tories. They failed to plan. Had they done so they would have had a better grasp of the issues and anticipated this ambush.

Wrong. The draft agreement is BRINO minus significant 'good' bits that we have lost by simply being dickheads.

mistigri in the U.K. employers will NOT be breaking the law if they employ an EU citizens.

This is enraging me tbh.

The LAW is there and is explicit on that subject so that there is absolutely no issue employing EU citizens.
Of course that law can be changed at some point. But my point is that AT THE MOMENT, this is not and will not be the case, Deal or no deal.

Spreading ideas that it MIGHT be the case if the law is changed etc.. isnt helping at all and is actually putting EU citizens in a really difficult place where they will be asked to prove things they dint need to prove.
We really dint need that.

Surely the WA is just a mechanism for obtaining a Transition Period only?

During the TP Government can work towards a full withdrawal on different terms, electronic borders and so on surely, or have I missed something?

I can see how that will work out though.

Without a WA we don't get a transition. We crash out. With a transition we can negotiate trade deals

Bofsy1
I think you have missed some detail. The WA is establishing the direction that the UK wants to take in future and is the framework to say the UK is going in or out. It also establishes things like the legal status of citizens now and into the future. I have forgotten which the other 2 or 3 bits are.
Without a WA it is signalling that the UK does not want to 'play ball' and so on 29 March ALL legal treaties (760 or so) etc will cease.

Surely the WA is just a mechanism for obtaining a Transition Period only?

Yes.

The only way to achieve Brexit in a viable fashion was to leave slowly.

But Brexiteers think doing this, just gives opportunity for the UK to change its mind.

The reality is that come 29th March, we can't. Its out of our hands. Politically the 27 will NOT want us back. That door is closed.

How far we go away from the EU was always down to us. After 29th March we are more free to do that. Brexiteers don't want the Withdrawal Agreement because of the backstop because it stops them doing whatever they like. But the backstop exists because of the GFA which recognised that some in NI are not British but Irish - but have the right to be so without prejudice.

Allowing us to do whatever Brexiteers like, has the potential to return to that prejudice and the troubles that came from that.

It still doesn't mean we can't have a hard brexit or we won't have a hard brexit. It just means that the route to hard brexit is more difficult.

The plus for us, is we have more of a longer run at it to mitigate issues relating to simply crashing out without a deal.

The ERG are fully able to absorb a system shock - and capitalise from it - unlike the rest of the population. They don't like this being pointed out and being put back in their box.

bellini,

As I thought, but the way the WA is being portrayed at the moment one would think that it is set in stone forever. It is not.

If it passes in the Commons, I am really looking forward to the wonderful Trade Deals that will be agreed during the Transition Period. If UK comes out of CU forget that, the EU as a bloc is a great trading partner. But some numpties think differently.

We are living through history.

Red,

Great post, pity that most people will not read it though.

Maybe that's an issue regarding informing the public. (not you, just in general).

The WA is in draft form for another week or two but the EU have made it very clear that apart from a touch of polish, this will be what it looks like.
The UK doesn't have to accept it but as you are aware the other 2 options are 'all in' or 'all out' with the 29th March being the day that would happen.

@1tisILeClerc

I wish those who would like a WTO based crash out would explain the benefits for us. But no, they have never done so.

WA is the way to go, and I think the penny is dropping all over the place, apart from a few people who want a crash out to enrich themselves and their cronies.

We shall see. Interesting times ahead.

bofsy, the problem is that just about everyone from the media, the government, opposition and various rebel groups constantly refer to the WA as 'The Deal'.

Which leads to me believing that lots of people are going to be completely bewildered if this is all settled and then politicians start talking about another deal, when all these muppets are under the impression this is it and then its done. The reality is its going to go on for years and years.

The gap between public knowledge and reality is huge.

But then it has been since Feb 2016.

twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1063790996859830272
Here's Nadine being a tool.

Neither the WA or the 'WTO ' are and end of anything.
The WTO is an organisation that sets out a framework of trading rules. That is HOW the trade should be conducted but does not itself define tariff rates and so on.
The WA is a plan, a bit like a roadmap that says what needs agreeing and so on. To prevent total chaos on 29th, as I said Citizens rights and a couple of other elements are defined and assuming it is signed off will come into law, but that is all.

Red,

I looked on the WA as a means of obtaining a Transition Period, during which UK can sort out lots of stuff (allegedly!), and leave as if there were NO DEAL in 2020, you know all things sorted.

I don't think even the Commons or the Cabinet realise this. LOL.

Such a lack of proper information to the general public (and Westminster it has to be said) is just farcical

No wonder the world is laughing at us. I shake my head.....

Le Clerc,

The WTO rules do not for example allow any member to set low tariffs for their crony countries or for their own benefit. Favoured Nation clause means they must apply those low tariffs to every WTO country.

Could get interesting if that is what UK is relying upon in their upcoming Trade Deals under WTO. (if it comes to that)

medium.com/@WhiteWednesday/latest-notes-on-the-wa-bda0995b2b1
This Deal, No Deal, or No Brexit? My Analysis and Conclusion

bofsy1 this is a good blog piece on exactly what the WA is and where it leaves Remain and how remain isn't continuity remain anyway.