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Brexit

Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2018 14:52

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

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1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 13:45

People are still refusing to get over the concept of unicorns and cake and as such will not vote in a rational way.
It is near impossible to vote for what 'most' people want as some of the choices are mutually exclusive and there are far too diverse objectives.
There is also the MASSIVE problem that unless the UK leaves, it will forever 'pout' and be disruptive to the EU. There are sufficient issues within the EU to be resolved without a 'significant' member continually 'buggering about' because it thinks it is special. While the EU is a strong entity it is not totally shatterproof and if it were to fail then absolutely all bets are off. We have Trump poking China with a stick, Russia with expansionist ideas and continued serious tension in the Middle East, not a good day to go kite flying.

ElenadeClermont · 17/11/2018 13:48

But CAP is changing and we will have no say in it. ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/future-cap_en

Quietrebel · 17/11/2018 13:54

Time to remember Boris's prophetic words:

MyBrexitIsIll · 17/11/2018 13:56

www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/brexit-prepare-leave-eu-tips-stockpiling-cars-health-currency-medicine-travel-a8533101.html

Brexit-proof your life: 20 ways to be pragmatic as we exit the EU

Au pairs, tenants and employees: let them go now or hang on for dear life

Without a legally sound withdrawal agreement, the rights and status of EU citizens living and working in the UK will need to be clarified, and there is no sign of that yet. Some may decide to leave the UK, even after many years here, which will inevitably cause great disruption. You may therefore wish to make some contingency arrangements of your own if, say, you rent a house to a Slovak family, have a French au pair or employ workers from Poland. The short story is that they may be hard to replace.

Wow, wow, what about stroking a bit of xenophobia? Yes let’s just get rid of any eu citizens renting or working for you ‘just in case’
I hate that sort of comments based on anything but the reality.
Yes in case of a no deal, nothing is sure in the long term.
But at the moment, we have a LAW specifying clearly that what is going to happen to EU citizens up to the end of 2020 and thereafter (that’s the settled status). It’s nit all up in the air and ‘we’d better get rid of them befire they cause any problem because they aren’t supposed to be I I gotta here anymore’.
Notice too the example chosen, a family from an eastern country....

That sort of comment is the direct consequence of constant blunders from ministers who have no clue what they are talking about. (Remember thé comment about how companies will have to check if EU citizens are allowed in the country after March 19 that has then been denied by the HO?)

I’m furious. 😡😡😡

No wonder EU citizens dont feel safe anymore....

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 13:57

Redtoothbrush, your post is interesting, but not really a response to my comment that you quoted.

Your point seems to be that it wouldn't be a re-run, which is exactly what I was saying! And nor should it be a re-run, it should be a proper, I formed choice of viable current options.

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 13:59

Which is why saying you would support remain because that's already been done makes no sense, because it's not the same question now so it hasn't already been done!

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 14:00

Sorry typos as typing too quickly on tablet, always problematic

Quietrebel · 17/11/2018 14:03

Oh dear! This article is the stuff of nightmares. I was worried about that a while ago, which prompted my 'naturalisation or leave' strategy. Sad to be proved right. Again, many of my EU acquaintances have anticipated it and left.

1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 14:03

Thanks RTB, in full agreement with that.
The situation has changed drastically as said because of the time taken to think of any plan and in many ways by the ridiculous game playing that has been (and still is) going on.
If shortly after the 2016 vote (a week or two) ANYONE had managed to say in a way that was not branded as Project Fear that the UK will be totally stuffed if it leaves the EU and presented proper financial arguments for remaining or leaving which could be voted on by MPs etc (a whole country vote would be a shambles) THEN it would have been possible to remain (if that was the choice) and the damage to the value of the Pound and industry would have been a 'blip' but not catastrophic. Now, with over 2 years of total fu$%wittedness industry is on the way out and is possibly or even probably not saveable, especially since there are other issues in the EU itself.
The EU has been watching the disgusting show that has been put on by everyone from the Prime Minister down, being disrespectful and rude. It has gone way beyond 'friendly banter' over countries stereotypes, it is simply nasty.

MyBrexitIsIll · 17/11/2018 14:19

I’ve written to the Independent to complain butbthey wont be looking at that until Monday so a whole weekend will pass with people reading their xenophobic comments.

I thought the Independent was usually quite good/neutral. Obvioulsy not.

I’ve never written any complaint before but that REALLY made me furious 😡😡😡😡😡

umpteennamechanges · 17/11/2018 14:21

{Not a popular view but they need to be paid better in order to attract better quality candidates. And after this debacle is all over (in a decade or so or more) a new rule introduced that prospective MPs must have had a 10 year serious career (at least) before joining the HofC.}

^ I agree with this. In London anyone in business likely to be able to able to fill an MP's shoes would struggle with the massive pay decrease.

Do Cabinet members get more than £70k? I assume so but no idea how much...

Doesn't the PM only earn £100k?

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 14:27

I think leaders of oppositi9n gets more than £100k (money well spent currently 🙄) so PM surely does

Mistigri · 17/11/2018 14:29

Au pairs, tenants and employees: let them go now or hang on for dear life

Businesses and individuals may be breaking the law if they continue to employ EU citizens after a crash out Brexit. I'm a Briton working in the EU and I have asked my employer to clarify their intentions. I have 30 years' service but because I have a local contract I don't even know if I would qualify for redundancy pay.

whitewave · 17/11/2018 14:31

I have heard quite a few MPs say that a no deal is totally unacceptable and that parliament will ensure it doesn’t happen.

How? For a no deal to be imminent, we assume that Mays deal had collapsed, and given that no one can agree, how would they prevent a no deal.

Cailleach1 · 17/11/2018 14:34

" Ian Marshall says the DUP is "out of step" with farmers and their interests in NI.'

UFU (Ulster Farmers' Union) says DUP should 'consider backing Brexit deal'

The DUP said they cannot support the draft text as it could lead to the break up of the UK and would damage the economy.
That has put them at odds with most of Northern Ireland's business groups, who have cautiously welcomed the deal.

On Thursday, DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson suggested that businesses supporting the deal had not properly understood it.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46236442

Senator Ian Marshall says remarks by @JDonaldsonMP that agri-food industry leaders haven't fully read the UK-EU Brexit deal are "very disappointing" "completely disrespectful" and that Sir Jeffrey has got it "horribly wrong"

twitter.com/QUBResearchPol/status/1055737030435581952

NI MP's not representing the interests of NI. Just ideology.

bellinisurge · 17/11/2018 14:34

I think an emergency motion put before Parliament would get cross party support and stop a crash out. Quite what the words would be, I don't know.
I'm not a marcher but I think there would be public demonstrations against a crash out which I would certainly join.

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 14:35

Whitewave, I think many people just deem no deal scenario so unthinkable they assume it won't happen. I have had chats with several very well educated, intelligent, people who when I sound my worries about no deal simply reply "it w t happen, it won't be allowed to happen" but cannot engage with any actual description of the events that will prevent it. It feels,like a wing and a prayer stuff.

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 14:36

But the alternative to crashout would need that same cross party and public support. What is that alternative?

1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 14:39

Mrs May's speech has appeared on the UK.Gov website for anyone wanting a rerun.
Even she refers to taking back sovereignty and control of the UK's own money. So the UK is taking back the 'joint' bits of sovereignty in the bits that the EU have some say in, to replace almost the same bits with things that the UK will now have no say in.
Like sharing a bar of chocolate with your dog, and you just get the wrapper back. It is still however a lot better than crashing out and it doesn't mean you have chlorinated chicken etc, just yet at least.

bellinisurge · 17/11/2018 14:40

The alternative to crash out is getting this shitty deal through Parliament. If an MP is looking down the barrel of a metaphorical gun - this or crash out - they will support it. I predict all bets off in the media and lots of actual information that cannot be dismissed as Project Fear any more.

Thegirlinthefireplace · 17/11/2018 14:44

I dunno, I don't see where those 300+ MPs supporting the shitty deal that would be needed are going to come from.

WorriedMutha · 17/11/2018 14:47

No deal is better than a bad deal was the mantra du jour whilst negotiating with the EU. Since the ink dried on the deal, May has switched to my deal or no Brexit. It seems to me that she has no intention of no dealing and if the deal goes pear shaped in Parliament, she will jump all over a people's vote and the EU will let her. The polls are switching amid the chaos and moderate leavers are coming over. Wishful thinking moi?

1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 14:50

Of course the 'deal' is supposed to be at least fairly 'bad', but fair. It mostly protects the EU which is it's purpose.
I could imagine a ramping up of EU 'demands' or now since they have agreed the text, being increasingly reluctant to change anything as time goes on.
I always find the experience of shopping at the supermarket goes best if you knock stuff off shelves, squeeze all the fruit, swear at the staff and act in a huffy manner when you get to the tills. I wonder why they don't offer me the green shield stamps anymore.

RedToothBrush · 17/11/2018 14:53

Brexiteer Tory MP Mark Francois, who has submitted a letter of no confidence, says the prime minister is "irretrievably committed to Chequers".

He says: "The draft agreement is 585 pages, it is extremely complex and is written in legalese.

"Because of this, tomorrow morning at 9am Conservative MP Steve Baker will make publicly available a seven page document summarising the agreement which everyone should read."

He says the document will "expose Chequers".

Mark Francois says "The DUP are hopping mad with the prime minister and if they lose confidence in her we can no longer govern.

"This is why this is the time that Theresa May needs to go."

Legal document written in legal terms.

Whatever next?

A French book written in french???

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bellinisurge · 17/11/2018 14:53

I get you @Thegirlinthefireplace - but Corbyn cannot whip his MPs to toe his line. There are plenty of Tories that are loyal to TM or just don't fancy an apocalypse. And the SNP might do it if promised a referendum. Lib Dem's too.
If it came down to it and the alternative was no deal, I think she'd get enough.
A General Election or 2Nd ref might pause Article 50 but I don't know if it would be enough.