Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

[RedToothBrush]

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
Liam Fox backs Theresa May: "I very much agree with Michael Gove that what we need now is stability."

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Public declaration me now at 20. One ERG member told me MPs would ‘consult associations over the weekend’.......as said earlier source close to whips office thought it was getting close

A 48 hr delay for the PM would explain a lot. But also inconceivable that if the ERG have the numbers and a list of 48, they wouldn't go pu lux before that. I can't see Brady staying silent under the circumstances tbh.

Several cynical UK-EU lawyers I happened to speak to this morning were speculating that Gove has just about enough time to prepare for leadership in 2020 when he will rip up various agreements in Trumpian style and basically steer the future direction of UK-EU relations in a very different way to current political drafts.

Did we get a graph of the sky poll?

Love a pie chart, it's a classic.

Only 20 MPs the FT says, not supporting the PM (so far of which they are aware). Gove, Mordaunt, Fox all saying this deal better than non deal - very wise.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Steve Baker
Andrew Bridgen
Laurence Robertson
Nadine Dorries
Andrea Jenkyns
Adam Holloway
Anne Marie Morris
Henry Smith
Sheryll Murray
Maria Caulfield
Martin Vickers
Lee Rowley
Ben Bradley
Simon Clarke
Peter Bone
Philip Davies
James Duddridge
John Whittingdale
Mark Francois

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
This morning we are being briefed that the 48 letters have been reached and also that they have not been reached, and also that people are taking time to think at the weekend and also that they are already over the limit. The only person who actually knows is Graham Brady.

Good. I can have a reasonably peaceful afternoon at the Manchester Christmas Markets then!

Lisa O'Carroll @ lisaocarroll
Geoffrey Cox being tipped as new Brexit Secretary I see. From hacking trial in Old Bailey to Brussels.....They will be blown away by his voice in their first meeting, if appointed...But he is not an expert in EU law, note.

MP for Torridge and West Devon. Currently attorney General.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Cox_(British_politician)

Laura Kuennsberg @bbclaurak
1. Those who have gone public-Andrea Jenkyns, Andrew Bridgen, Philip Davies, James Duddridge, Anne Marie Morris, Lawrence Robertson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Simon Clarke, Steve Baker, Henry Smith, Maria Caulfield, Sheryll Murray, Lee Rowley, Martin Vickers, Peter Bone
(Rtb: 16)
2. And Whittingdale, Mark Francois, Adam Holloway, Ben Bradley ....
(Rtb: 20)

No Redwood or Cash on that list.

The poke @ thepoke
Santa's making a list
He's checking it twice...

And that's me signing off for the afternoon. Milled wine and bratwurst here I come.

smile that's a parody Ken Clarke account but you could see him doing that!

My archbrexiteer MP is oddly silent on this all too. Was expecting his name to be on the list.

Meanwhile, in a nod to another thread elsewhere

Dear Sir Graham,

She Just Doesn’t Listen

I am writing to ask for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as Prime
Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party. This is something I thought
I would never do.

Since Chequers, I and other senior members of the ERG, have been
attempting to persuade the Prime Minster and senior officials in No.10
Downing Street that there was no way that a deal based on that agreed at
Chequers would ever pass through the House of Commons and to pivot instead
to a free trade arrangement known as “Super Canada”. I can tell you that
we tried repeatedly to get this message across – over a period of some
four months – confidentially, respectfully and in private. However, in
short, no one really listened to a word we said.

The Prime Minister has been surrounded throughout this process by a
Praetorian Guard of highly pro-European senior civil servants who, I
believe, have never accepted the result of the referendum. Instead they
have helped to steer the negotiations in such a way that means, quite
simply, we will not in fact leave the European Union but effectively
remain within it. This is a betrayal of the decision of 17.4 million
British people and the clear instruction that was given to all Members of
Parliament by them in the referendum.

Now that the details of the deal are available we can see how truly awful
it is. Despite the Prime Minister solemnly assuring the House on over
twenty occasions since 2016 that we would leave the Customs Union (as
clearly stated in our 2017 General Election manifesto), Mrs May now
envisages a situation in which we would remain in the Customs Union in
perpetuity, only allowed to leave with the consent of the EU. This is
utterly contrary to the spirit of Brexit and means our Country would
surrender control of our national destiny to Brussels. I can never vote
for this and neither can many of my colleagues.

In addition, we have agreed to maintain “equivalent standards” with the
European Union in critical areas of employment policy, environmental
policy and social policy, in effect this means we would continue to accept
EU law in these areas, except that we could now have absolutely no control
over how that law was drafted. This is not taking back control of our
laws, it is making us subservient to the laws of others.

Moreover, at a time when MPs have seen very difficult decisions taken in
their constituencies, including the closing of police stations and being
briefed by Headteachers on the extremely tight situations in their school
budgets, as part of this deal we are proposing to send £39billion of
British taxpayers money to Brussels – for absolutely nothing whatsoever in
return. This is hardly taking back control of our money.

As I tried to say respectfully to the Prime Minister in the House of
Commons yesterday, there is absolutely no way that this deal will pass
through the House. The Labour Party are now pledged to vote against it
(with perhaps a handful of exceptions); the SNP will vote against it; the
Liberal Democrats will vote against it; crucially the Democratic Unionist
Party will vote against it and over 80 Conservative MPs are pledged to
vote against it as well. As I said yesterday, this makes it
“mathematically impossible” for the deal to pass. I pleaded with the Prime
Minister to accept the political reality of this situation but still she
continues to believe, against all evidence to the contrary, that she will
get it through. She is, in short, in complete denial.

Like many colleagues, I am also deeply worried that Chequers would treat
Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the United Kingdom. Not only
is this a betrayal of the Province but it would give succour to our
opponents in the SNP and assist them in renewing their calls for the
breakup of the United Kingdom. As members of the Conservative and Unionist
Party we cannot and must not allow this to happen.

In raw political terms there is also the fact that the Prime Minister has
appallingly treated and now alienated our strategic allies in the
Democratic Unionist Party. We rely on these MPs for a working majority in
the House of Commons, given the disastrous General Election of 2017 which
she called and in which we lost over 30 valued colleagues. As ever, this
was a decision she took with a very small coterie of advisors and without
seeking opinion or advice from her experienced colleagues.

The DUP can speak for themselves but from what I have seen over the last
few days, and given Nigel Dodds’ words in the House yesterday when he said
“she just doesn’t listen” it seems to me that not only will the DUP resist
Chequers but they have effectively now lost all faith in the Prime
Minister. This means that it will be practically impossible for us to
continue to rely on them to prop up the Government while the Prime
Minister remains in Office. I therefore believe that in order for our
Party to survive in Government it is imperative we find a new leader who
can command the respect of the DUP and therefore maintain the working
majority in Parliament. This is, to coin a phrase, an inconvenient truth,
but it is there nonetheless.

Like almost all MPs, from whichever Party, I came into Parliament to serve
my Country. Many years ago I served in the Territorial Army in the Cold
War. As far as I am concerned, what I am doing now – and about which I
have thought very carefully over a number of months – is defending my
country again.

Given the number of Cabinet and other Ministerial resignations, I do not
believe that it is in any way possible for the Prime Minister to repair
the damage which she has done and therefore the Conservative Party needs
new leadership if it has any chance of moving forward and rebuilding trust
with the electorate.

In summary, I believe that Chequers, to which the Prime Minister, is
clearly unbreakably wedded, would not constitute Brexit in any shape or
form whatsoever and would therefore betray the spirit of the referendum
and the decision of 17.4 million British people. I urge my colleagues to
consider the likely reaction in their constituencies if their constituents
believe that, having voted for us to leave, the politicians have conspired
to deny them their decision. At any subsequent election their backlash
would be brutal.

For the sake of the Conservative Party and indeed for our Country’s
destiny, I honestly believe that is now time to seek fresh leadership that
can carry this Country forward outside of the European Union and
confidently into the world.

Yours regretfully,

Rt Hon Mark Francois MP

@leclerc, the point about the budget vote next week is actually a bigger deal than people think.
Don't forget, the Tory government is only being propped up by an agreement with the DUP, otherwise they have no majority.
Presumably they have pissed Arlene off a fair bit, and so I wonder whether they can now rely on the DUP to give them enough support to get the budget through successfully.
If the Government cannot get their budget through Parliament then this leaves them in a very tricky position. They cannot govern, and we could be in a position whereby they have to invite the opposition to see if they can form a Government.

I may be missing the finer details on this and would happily be advised further by those far more clued up than me on these threads, but I do believe that getting the Budget through is a bigger deal than is being discussed!!
Interesting times

The ERG either don't understand or wilfully ignore the fact that they can't have their Canada deal without signing up to the backstop. And barely anyone challenges them on this.

There's a part of me that wants the deal to pass through parliament just to poss off the likes of Steve Baker. Just been watching him on politics live.

Thanks for the explanation HLS.
Of course this is politics not real life.

If the Government cannot get their budget through Parliament then this leaves them in a very tricky position. They cannot govern, and we could be in a position whereby they have to invite the opposition to see if they can form a Government.

That was previously discounted ... apparently the FTPA now means failing to get a budget through is not a no confidence vote (although it could lead to one).

Worth reminding ourselves, hourly, that the reason we are in this mess is there really is no way out without a lot of pain for someone, somewhere. And it can't be stressed enough that all the clever money says a General Election will ultimately change nothing. And to arrive at that stage, and still have no way out would simply increase the pressure cooker that is already past safe.

I don't think it's fair to say that people in Westminster of whatever stripe "don't get it". They get it only too well. It's pass the parcel/musical chairs with the music ending on 29th March. Even a WA is just going to keep the music going. It won't defuse the energy that has built up and which needs an outlet.

The only difference now (or what I believe we are seeing) is that for the past two years, Remainers have been in the cross-hairs. But now that's shifted to the Brexiteer Leavers who have consistently failed, and are now trying to backpedal and change the story they sold the country.

Sorry to say, but I really could imagine a swivel-eyed Brexiteer doing something violent towards a Brexiteer. Farages comment about being lynched wasn't made idly - he certainly "gets it".

www.thenational.scot/news/17227465.david-mundell-clings-on-as-scottish-tory-mp-tells-him-to-resign/

David Mundell clings on as Scottish Tory MP tells him to resign

In an astonishing turn of events, he attacked those colleagues who did leave of being “carpet-baggers” taking part in a “soap-opera”.

The Secretary of State for Scotland had come under pressure after a slew of government resignations yesterday.

Many of those on the way out have questioned the ability of the deal agreed by Theresa May to protect the integrity of the UK, as it calls for a “deeper” customs arrangements for Northern Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

In his resignation letter, outgoing Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said the “regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom”.

Esther McVey in her missive to May said that would threaten the “integrity of the United Kingdom, which as a Unionist is a risk I cannot be party to”. Ex-Northern Ireland minister Shailesh Vara said it would mean the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom would not be respected

And Suella Braverman said it would “break up our precious union”.

Just last month in the Commons, Mundell said “the integrity of the UK is a red line for me”.

Yesterday, however he backed the Prime Minister, and criticised the resigning ministers, describing them as “carpet-baggers”, a term for politicians who seek to win an election in an area where they have no local connections.

In an interview with ITV Border, Mundell said: “I am not taking lessons for standing up for our United Kingdom from carpet-baggers.

“Only a couple of years ago Dominic Raab was proposing to introduce a bill of rights into Scotland which would have overwritten the Scottish legal system and devolution.

“So I am not impressed by his latter day commitment to the Union.

“I am sure this is more about manoeuvring and leadership.” He said the “best way of keeping the UK together” was “to ensure we have a deal as we leave the EU that Brexit delivers for Scotland and the rest of the UK”.

“That is what I am focused on,” Mundell added. “Not being part of some soap opera of resignations and I am not going to be bounced into resigning by carpet-baggers.”

But the minister’s unwillingness to stand down infuriated some of his Scottish Tory MP colleagues.

Ross Thomson, the Brexit-backing, Boris Johnson supporting, Tory MP for Aberdeen South, sent a WhatsApp message to Mundell telling him to go.

In the message, obtained by BBC Scotland, Thomson said the backstop arrangements “mean a separate regulatory regime in Northern Ireland and that they will be more closely aligned with the EU than the UK”.

He added: “We have already seen the SNP leaping on this calling for a differential deal in Scotland.

“This arrangement, I feel, is something no Unionist can support.

“Given that two members of the cabinet have resigned on the basis that the proposals put at risk our Union I want to urge you in the gentlest and strongest terms to follow suit.”

Thomson stressed that he believes Mundell was a “great Secretary of State” who is doing an “incredible job”, and said he would “support you in whatever you decide”.

During First Minister’s Questions, Nicola Sturgeon asked why Mundell had not stood down, and accused him of betraying his principles. It is not so long ago that the Secretary of State for Scotland and the leader of the Scottish Conservatives said that, if there were to be separate relationships for the UK and Northern Ireland, they would resign.

“Where is David Mundell today?” she said.

Scottish Tory interim leader Jackson Carlaw said Davidson and Mundell had spent “the past year fighting for the United Kingdom.”

“They are not going to take any lessons from anyone else – not from any carpet-bagger who has come late to the defence of the United Kingdom and certainly not from the First Minister,” he said.

Sturgeon said it was unclear how Mundell and Davidson could “have any other option but to follow through on the principled commitment that they made.”

Sturgeon said she doubted the two had a “backbone between them”.

Anyone doing the letter storm to labour today? First I've heard of it.

{The ERG either don't understand or wilfully ignore the fact that they can't have their Canada deal without signing up to the backstop. And barely anyone challenges them on this. }
As with my 'rantette' a little earlier since even the people (supposedly) in charge either have no clue about implications of what they are being told, are naive, or are bare faced lying, or a mix of all 3, how the heck will anything good come of this?
This is definitely time for a MN 'graphic' with relevant symbols such as cake, Gin and used nappies, with simple text to highlight the merits of each 'solution'. The old standby 'LTB' could even have a place.

Hit a technical with my mission for the afternoon. Sigh.

Rachael Venables @ rachaelvenables
UKIP’s Patrick O’Flynn called on Twitter for a protest picket against the “Govt Brexit sell-out” Downing Street this morning.

So far it’s just him with a ‘Vote Leave’ sign and Suzanne Evans with an umbrella @LBC

Alex Wickham @ alexwickham
Chief whip cancels briefings with MPs today on the Brexit deal...

Very frustrating interview with Francois on R4 - where he kept on making out TM was the only negotiator and because she was a "bloody difficult woman" she simply "hadn't listened" to Brexiteer demands. Not that unicorns don't exist or anything . The irony when Brexiteers haven't been listening since flaming experts that it is impossible to get a better deal...unbelievable! She even put them in charge of it all!

If you have time for a comedic interlude, this is a pitch perfect imagining of David Lidington and Theresa May's discussions yesterday: twitter.com/garius/status/1062983853260918784

Where's Boris?

Interesting that the BBC's "reality check correspondent" was doing a bit on the BBC1 lunchtime news just now about the various possibilities for extending A50 for a new referendum/GE and of revoking A50 altogether, inc. a bit with Jolyon Maugham about the European court case, and the govt trying to stop it...

Is that Aaron Banks with them too?