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Brexit

Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2018 14:52

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

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PineappleSunrise · 16/11/2018 11:40

And we thought Hackgate exposed uncomfortably cozy ties between politics and the fourth estate...

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 11:40

Tom Harwood @tomhfh
NEW: Steve Baker has told the ERG whatsapp group his letter count is over 48 with a dozen probables on top.

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PineappleSunrise · 16/11/2018 11:41

How many actual names declared, though? That's where it gets interesting.

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 11:41

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
This confirmed by ERG source. “Took seconds to leak” 👀

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PineappleSunrise · 16/11/2018 11:42

(Still wondering when Steve Baker's constituency will remind him that they voted Remain...)

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 11:43

Carl Dinnen @carldinnen
Brexiteer source believes the 48 letters will be in soon. They are confident of their numbers and it is currently a matter of logistics.
But talking to people on both sides there is little expectation that May will lose a no confidence vote.
There are those who believe only the extremes were heard in Parliament yesterday and there is more support for the deal than might be imagined BUT...
the brexiteers probably won’t mind if they lose a vote of confidence so long as theyget enough votes against the Prime Minister to demonstrate that she cannot win the Meaningful Vote.
And they think they will. Easily.
All that said we are still waiting. There has been no contact yet between Brady and No10 today.

The importance of logistics and Brexit...

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SusanWalker · 16/11/2018 11:44

JRM is very Trump like. I think he likes the attention.

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 11:45

Mike Smithson @ Msmithsonpb
At a CON Conference fringe six weeks ago 1922 chair Brady said that often there was a mismatch between the total of CON MPs saying they had sent no confidence letters and the actual numbers he had received

You don't say...

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Motheroffourdragons · 16/11/2018 11:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 11:49

John Stevens tweets

UPDATED: 21 Tory MPs known to have written letters of no confidence

-Baker
-Bone
-Bradley
-Bridgen
-Caulfield
-Clarke
-Davies
-Dorries
-Duddridge
-Francois
-Holloway
-Jenkyns
-Jones
-Morris
-Murray
-Rees-Mogg
-Robertson
-Rowley
-Smith
-Vickers
-Whittingdale

Any others?

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DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 11:49

I think Gove may still be in some sort of bizarre rivalry with BoJo. He was burned once before, remember.

If we take a vote of NC in May as a given (and I remain sceptical) then who - and how - will replacements shape out to be. Bearing in mind it has to be quickly. In that situation, Gove needs to have collected the right objects as he went around the board. (Anyone ever play a game called "Talisman" ? If you did, remember what happened if you lost the donkey ....). More importantly, he needs to hold onto them as a leadership candidate.

I think he's ultra wary of doing a lot of heavy lifting, only to find BoJo sneaks in.

BoJos current stance of silence suggests he's trying to keep cards close ? However, I'm not really sure anyone who has failed (Raab, Davies or Johnson) could be a serious contender - it hardly sends a great message to the rest of the world that the UK is happy to be run by people who couldn't do the previous job. And while it might play well in the US, it would just put them on a permanent back foot in any EU discussions. For all their lack of sense of humour, I could see the Germans having a satirical field day if Davies were to turn up at Brussels as PM, with Der Speigel maybe printing a guide to how the UK helps it's more vulnerable citizens by making them PM. Because I know it's what the French would do.

1tisILeClerc · 16/11/2018 11:49

{We have the budget to be voted own next week as well}
What is the point of doing that when no one knows what will happen to the UK in the next few months?

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 11:50

Jim Pickard @pickardje
people seem surprised that MPs who came up with the £350m magic bus number are now struggling to count up their no-confidence letters

Snigger

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BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 11:51

spudlet There is no time limit on the letters, but if any have been sent a while ago, then the 1922 Chair would contact the writer to make sure they still wished to go ahead.

In fact, the Chair has said before that some letters have clauses contained within them specifying exactly when they should be activated and when not
also that some MPs in the past have claimed in public to have sent in a letter when they haven't !

The ERG chair - Mogg - can't be sure of the content of the letters sent by hod group, or how many, unless he actually read each one and then took them along to the 1922 Chair himself

Some letters could be irrelevant to the current casee, e.g. have the clause that they are only to be activated 2 years after Brexit !

DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 11:52

Looking at that list, reminds me of what a previous Tory PM - as General - said on the eve of a battle ....

...I only hope that when the enemy reads that list of names, he trembles as I do...

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 11:55

The ERG have the BIG problem that if they fail to topple her, then she cannot be challenged for another 12 months !

So, imo they were hoping she would back down with the threat of being ousted

but they are now having to decide if is worth it, especially if they think they don't have the magic 193 votes to defeat her

DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 11:55

Once again, the fate of a nation hangs on the machinations of a single political party Sad. Which essentially is my life defined. From being born under Wilson, and living through Heath-Wilson-Callaghan-Thatcher onwards, it's seemed what happened in the Tory party has always eclipsed real lives. They really are the Japanese Knotwood of cunts. The political undead.

Spudlet · 16/11/2018 11:55

Ah, thanks BigChocFrenzy. And lol at DGRossetti - what a shower that lot are. Dorries was a bloody PITA in one of my old jobs - she was a fekkin' eejit then, and she still is.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 16/11/2018 11:55

This made me laugh

@BrianSpanner1
Admiral Gove wants to renegotiate with the iceberg.

Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!
BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 11:56

red That could as easily be the list of the nastiest Tories in Parliament

Spudlet · 16/11/2018 11:57

If only the iceberg was a different shape, we'd be just fine! Maybe more... 🦄

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 12:04

Ivan Rogers (old speech)

"Various protagonists, from the different sides,
are fighting over versions of an EU that do not exist,
to achieve outcomes which are undeliverable. "

SusanWalker · 16/11/2018 12:09

Liam Fox is backing TM saying a deal is better than no deal.

1tisILeClerc · 16/11/2018 12:13

It's OK folks, MNHQ has put the duvet back over the Brexit threads so we can talk about it in peace, although there is a woman trying to decide about doing the school run.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 12:13

Brady, 1922 Chair, has said before that he would give the PM 48 hours notice before going public

So - unless he leaks - or he needs help counting and they leak ! - we wouldn't hear before Sunday am
assuming of course that 48 letters wasn't reached earlier this week