Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

AwdBovril The UK has no trade deals whatsoever on its own

As part of the EU we share all the EU trade deals, but these stop unless BOTH parties - the EU and the other country / trade bloc - agree to roll it over.

Currently only a few countries have said they will and nothing has yet been signed, so we don't know if it was just fine words.
Also, if we piss off without paying the bill, the EU may not agree to roll over any deal.

After Brexit:

The E27 is 19% of world GDP
and retains all its 40 FTAs with 60 countries and 750 other trade arrangements, e.g. recognition of standards etc

The UK is 3% of world GDP
and starts with NO trade deals or arrangements with any country.

Its flights to countries such as the USA, not just the EU, may be grounded until there is an emergency mini-deal ... on the EU's terms

It has to rebuild from scratch many key agencies to replace e.g. EURATOM,
or negotiate some form of lesser association with existing EU agencies ... on the EU's terms

@Icantreachthepretzels

a thousand remainers turn up and march peacefully. Two TWO for the other side turn up and cause trouble. And yet we're the ones that got called traitors today.

I've been to small demonstrations before and it was just like that. I wish 'normal' Leavers would open their eyes to what they're aligning themselves with and enabling.

Well done pretzels.
This says there were 3000 in York.

www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/17215269.thousands-take-part-in-peoples-vote-march-in-york/

Looks like a State of Emergency being declared by mid-March unless May sees sense

I've been thinking that for a while. I don't think there is any other way. I also think there will be civil unrest. The country is too divided and each group is blaming the other (see the march in york)

I've been right in quite a few things like this do far.
I would really hate to be right again.
But I can't see any other way.

Well done pretzels!

Re second referendum, Im not convinced.
I think the change we are seeing is just the passage of time. Older voters, more likely to vote leave, dying. Younger voters now been allowed to leave.
The difference between the two groups was small enough that 2 years has been enough to switch the majority.

The very deep divide is still there. It has been accentuated by the last two years of propaganda.

A new referendum will just highlight that again. And accentuate the feeling if remainders that 'they were right you know. Look people now have seen the light'. It will make the leavers even more resentful and feeling like they have been ignored.

I have no idea how to solve that issue. But the government needs to come up with a solution quickly, regardless of the outcome of it wants to avoid seeing the country descending into some sort war (as in constant fighting between two sides with opposite entrentched views. Not taking arms. Even though I wouldn't be surisse to see some increase in violent crimes)

{Brexit: Patients fear losing sight as government refuses to guarantee essential drugs after no deal}
Headline in the Independent.
Referring to the Gov being unable to state that the medicines for glaucoma are guaranteed to be available.

Patients fear losing sight as government refuses to guarantee essential drugs after no deal

… and while nowhere near as serious as the problems for glaucoma patients, a quick check of my contact lenses boxes confirms that these too are all imported.

You were marching for more than 1 other, pretzels. Brava.

It is such a short time away. Just around the corner. It is really unbelievable that they are going to willingly create such a situation.

On a lighter (or not) note, according to John Simpson, it seems Trump is blaming the Baltics for the war in the Balkans.

twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1061306422552657920

Looks like a State of Emergency being declared by mid-March unless May sees sense

Sorry, but the internet is not the real world.

I live in one of the most Leave areas in the country, almost everyone i know and have been friends with for years inc family, voted leave.... now they don't give a fuck, you cannot get anyone to discuss it.

If there is civil disobedience, it will be because of food and med shortages.

But the Tories will resort to type and will turn on their leadership if they think they can't win the next GE, so i fully expect May to either have a 2nd vote or call a GE and resign.
She wont take us into a no-deal, prison could well end up being her fate, if she knowingly ensured hospitals run out of medication.

Very belated placemat it seems.
Thanks red

Don’t forget Patel!!

I wish 'normal' Leavers would open their eyes to what they're aligning themselves with and enabling

You would think that voting the way Nigel Farage asked you to would have tipped them off as to what they were aligning with. If that didn't do it - and if the murder of Jo Cox didn't do it - I don't think anything ever will.

^so i fully expect May to either have a 2nd vote or call a GE and resign.
She wont take us into a no-deal, prison could well end up being her fate, if she knowingly ensured hospitals run out of medication.^

I wish I could believe this - unfortunately I think her stubborness and incompetence will be all of our downfalls.

Thanks for the link Hester - it's good to see actual numbers. That's not really that much smaller than the great north march we had earlier in the year - which was organised to be massive (unlike this one!) and included pretty much every northern city there is. It really does show that numbers are growing.

The great north march had about 5000, but was reported in the BBC as having 'hundreds' of people. More accurate reporting of numbers is a step forward too.

I am genuinely curious, if the mums at your school gate were told, by a credible source, that food prices would go up 15 - 25%%, The NHS would be wound down along with the auto industry and carers would be difficult to hire, would they engage in a conversation about what could happen after Brexit? (I am a mum working on a campaign to reach mums so really curious)

Link to the article LeClerc mentioned

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-no-deal-medicine-glaucoma-diabetes-health-patients-a8627661.html

Very sobering reading. Even a freedom of information act request won't state what is being stockpiled because they don't know.

Thank you for marching pretzels

I was chatting with a fruit and veg import/exporter. He says the food from outside the EU will have to be inspected but not food from within the EU

Place marking

Thank you for doing the link Hazard.

The UK can waive the need for checks of food coming into the UK but any exports will have to be checked at the EU border. As Calais does not have facilities I heard it suggested that they would have to go via Rotterdam or elsewhere. That will stick a load more miles on the journey. This in turn will mean that many drivers may need to factor in an overnight stop which 'stuffs' the pretty precise timing of movements.

You say they don't give a f*ck, JasJas. Tough then if you say this is what they voted for with every disaster that visits them. They have to join long waiting lists for medical care. They should be happy, that is what they voted for. Any problems caused directly or indirectly by their brexit vote, they should be happy now. They got exactly what they wanted.

The pity and the focus of my sympathy is the people who didn't vote for Brexit but have to be on the receiving end of the problems it will cause too.

The UK can waive the need for checks of food coming into the UK but any exports will have to be checked at the EU border. As Calais does not have facilities I heard it suggested that they would have to go via Rotterdam or elsewhere.

That sort of depends where the stuff was going from/to to start with doesn't it? Beef from Yorkshire to Germany would theoretically travel less miles via Rotterdam and won't take a whole lot longer to get there, subject to actual ferry schedules. It would cost more to transport though.

The real issue is that no UK/EU interface ports have the capacity to suddenly start carrying out the required checks on the volume of goods which has been generated in the existing environment of not needing those checks. It's like suddenly deciding that every truck and van using the M1 to go to or from London suddenly needs to stop to have its paperwork (and possibly its goods) checked at Luton.

Cailleach1

The real villains of the piece are Cameron, Boris, Farage and Gove.. all of the ERG etc who will not suffer one iota but lets make sure we punish the little guys and gals at the bottom of the pile who whether you agree with or not, were exercising their democrat rights, given to them by this Tory government.

Its this sort of vindictive nonsense that makes me wonder whether we should be in the EU at all.

May's Brexit Deal Crashes as EU 'turns off life support'

4 remain ministers on the verge of resigning
Labour pledge to mobilise all MPs to stop use leaving without a deal
Graham Brady accused of suppressing the fact he has received enough letters.

Most of article is warning that we have reached the point of no return and where we have to face up to no deal inevitability.

And the Telegraph states what we've known for months. And the Observer isn't any cheerier.

Oh and the Independent?

Yeah that's just as optimistic.

The Associated Press @ ap
BREAKING: Florida secretary of state orders recounts in U.S. Senate, governor races.

Haven't we been here before?