Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
43
TheElementsSong · 24/10/2018 09:44

HowDoYouFeelNow I'm glad RTB's fantastic series of threads is doing its job of disseminating much-needed information!

(Also, I've just written to my MP this morning. Again.)

PostNotInHaste · 24/10/2018 09:47

BCF I was just thinking that over actually. I was in Germany a couple of weeks ago and my cousin’s daughter has a ground floor flat in their house that they I tend to let at some point but haven’t yet. Her and her Husband both speak English which would help as DH’s German very basic. They both use it for work leading on from what you were saying. Her DH is excellent though typically for the Germans says he isn’t! But in my book if you can talk about financial centres as we were the other day (Brexit discussion) then you’re doing pretty well.

DH’s boss is great and I’m sure if the shit really hit the fan he’d be really helpful. Half my family are dotted over the world so we’re well used to Skype etc being main means of communication. He’s got about 3 months supply of long acting insulin, a month of short acting so far and some blood sugar testing strips. Hopefully by March he’ll have more short acting so hopefully this is entirely theoretical and will remain that way but I’m not taking any chances.

Quietrebel · 24/10/2018 09:56

@mybrexit

No.
I fear the same. Depending on nationality, some will be treated worse than others as well I think.

LolaOchLotta · 24/10/2018 09:57

MyBrexitIsIll

"this worries me nearly more than food shortage etc...
I’m thinking that seeing the increase in racism and xenophobia, seeing the attitude in (some) newspapers that it’s all the EU’s fault for not giving the UK what it wants, then there will be a huge backlash against EU citizens when food and medicines are getting sparse.Do you think I’m over reacting there?"

I am worried about this too. Most people are so incredibly ignorant about the ins and outs of Brexit. They will totally lap up the narrative that the EU is bullying us and I wouldn't be surprised if the foreigners will be vilified for this.

Isn't this what has always happened throughout history? Those in power with no scruples, distracting up their mischief, selfish power struggles and incompetence by blaming a select group of people who become the handy scapegoat.

Imagine food and medicine shortages, how kind will people be to families who who speak with a foreign accent? Will the 'generous' wartime spirit extend to families like ours who are British European? Will we be treated differently to English people? Attacked whilst queuing for food or petrol? If not that, perhaps we will just continue feeling the invisible yet tangible wall from English people who as soon as they hear we speak English fluently but with a EU accent seem to judge you silently for not being 'one of us' .Sad

I will stick around to see for myself as having lived here for 25 years I feel more from here than the country of my birth.

WorriedMutha · 24/10/2018 09:58

I'm resigned to the fact we've missed the boat to sell our house in the current climate. We have a year 13 child aiming for uni in 2019 so it would be mightily inconvenient to move temporarily when we would be looking to downsize within a few years. Hopefully we will transition to limbo land after a WA so that there is a mini bounce and collective sigh of relief. It seems to me that things are being choreographed with all the faux surprise at cabinet. Why are discussions at cabinet being leaked almost verbatim if we're not being played?

lonelyplanetmum · 24/10/2018 09:59

ready to grant lifelong right of return to UK for EU citizens if EU27 give unlimited onward free movement to Brits on continent

Just clarifying the offer is for EU citizens who already have settled status in the UK can come and go for their lifetime or EU citizens born before Brexit day can come and go for their lifetimes (provided they can get work etc) ..

Plus

Brits already on the continent begore Brexit day can come and go for their lifetimes or
UK Residents alive now can come and go for their lifetimes?

I think it's just those already with resident/ settled status but just checking.

(Academic of course as No- one from the EU will come here anyway ever again as the economy continues its lemming descent. )

PreppaPig · 24/10/2018 10:00

Lurker & occassional poster here! One of my children has type 1 diabetes. My child had their clinic visit last week, and I mentioned to the consultant that I was worried about the possibility of insulin shortages in the event of a No Deal Brexit. She immediately said "oh don't worry, insulin comes from Denmark and they're not in the EU and it will all be fine!" Of course this is all bollocks but I got the impression she was just trying to fob me off. I'm not sure if they have been told to fob off patients, or if she genuinely did not grasp the issue, but she is an intelligent woman, so Hmm . Anyway, it's not going to stop me worrying, and my reason for mentioning it was I hope it gets picked up somewhere that more & more people are worried about the impact of a no deal Brexit on the NHS.

If it does all go tits up, I'm not sure if we can escape. I'm currently in the process of applying for Irish citizenship, but I don't think I will get it in time. I'm a carer for my child, and have other children. I have health issues myself. We rent. I'm hoping to return to work in the next year or 2 (computer programmer so can work remotely), but it would be difficult enough re-entering the jobs market under normal circumstances, without the headache of Brexit and potentially relocating to another country! I don't have enough savings to cover a few months rent and living expenses while we get established, so I am praying for a deal and that they have enough insulin!

I can't believe how ridiculous that all is written down! Isn't this crazy?! The really terrible thing is it has brought home to me how lucky we are that we have an NHS and don't have to worry about access to insulin. When my child was diagnosed I was acutely aware how lucky we were to be living here, and that sadly in some places around the world, a diagnosis is a death sentence. Sad Angry

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:01

Rosamund Urwin @rosamundurwin
Policy suggestion for any political party: rendering all NDAs that cover criminal behaviour (ie sexual assault) void, not just going forward but retrospectively

Twitter tells me there is one name rumoured. It also tells me the law in Scotland might allow it. And of course the law abroad might to. But the victim would have to move abroad or potentially be in breach and they are still at risk of extridictition if they did because its all about them not telling anyone.

So it needs someone else who knows about the case, who isn't the victim or connected to the telegraph who knows about this, to leak it.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:02

Since NDAs are being used for Brexit related stuff this is actually very important in a variety of ways.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:04

Do you think I’m over reacting there?"

Sadly no.

Plus rationing is going to scare people with irregular status of any kind because they will fear discrimination or worse.

OP posts:
HowDoYouFeelNow · 24/10/2018 10:12

TheElements this thread is my main source of Brexit news. You, RTB and every other poster on these threads has my eternal gratitude for the info and advice Flowers

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:16

Robert Peston @peston
This report by the government's own watchdog, the National Audit Office, can be summed up as "the prime minister's failure to properly prepare for a no-deal Brexit has obliterated her own claim that no deal is better than a bad deal"

OP posts:
prettybird · 24/10/2018 10:25

Preppapig - tell me you told her that Denmark is in the EU ShockConfused

They're not in the Eurozone, but that's entirely separate from the Single Market.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2018 10:29

leClerc All correspondence and interviews were in English, before I knew German
They paid for and organised flight and hotel

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:33

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen tells Adam Boulton that he thinks 48 letters will have gone into 1922 this week, and re “noose” and “killing zone” that he wouldn’t be surprised “if Number 10 didn’t put those words out themselves - only people it suited”

OP posts:
PineappleSunrise · 24/10/2018 10:36

Oh God, the way false flag/conspiracy theory crap has infested every aspect of political discourse is incredibly disheartening.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2018 10:40

May's offer to Tusk is actually a good step
BUT

  • it only benefits E27 & UK expats
    afaik, Uk citizens could still move to the E27 before Brexit Day to qualify
    and applications for E27 citizens already here to obtain settled status are continuing

  • unless it is signed as a separate deal, no deal would zap all that

  • many expats would also need arrangements for healthcare, e.g. NHS, EHIC and - for pensioners - the agreement that each state will continue to refund their expat citizen's health costs to the host country's system

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:43

Tim Farron @timfarron
The Government's policy of making schools pay for the first 11 hours of support for children with additional and special needs creates a massive disincentive with head teachers knowing that the more pupils they have with special needs, the worse financially it is for their school

WTF????

Thats bonkers.

No wonder there are problems.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:47

Financial Times @FT
UK house prices would fall in no deal Brexit — Moody’s

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 24/10/2018 10:47

May's offer to Tusk is actually a good step BUT

I can't see it being seriously considered unless it carried ECHR/ECJ protections. Otherwise the EU could be accused of selling it's citizens out.

DGRossetti · 24/10/2018 10:48

The Government's policy of making schools pay for the first 11 hours of support for children with additional and special needs creates a massive disincentive with head teachers knowing that the more pupils they have with special needs, the worse financially it is for their school

WTF???? Thats bonkers.

About as bonkers as counting student loans as education spending.

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 10:50

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
The cabinet papers leak also contains nightmare for unionists & DUP

“In putting forward text (for Number 10’s preferred model) we will be clear that, while this could deal with certainty on customs in the backstop, the proposal for NI-specific VAT remains uncomfortable,” it says

Ie officials think NI in separate VAT territory to GB “A VAT border down the Irish Sea”, as it’s would be known With little chance of negotiating it away

Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon
So the new plan is to embed options of both Norway+Turkey (under the guise of a rolling transition) and Canada+backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, deferring the existential battle until after an orderly exit. Smart but will the Brexiters buy it?

OP posts:
Somerville · 24/10/2018 10:53

We are unable to progress our plans to move at all, with kids in yr 12 and yr 11. So we're hunkering down with extra supplies if it comes to no deal.

One of my younger kids is reliant on medication but thankfully it has a decent shelf life. We've got a bit ahead of NHS prescriptions, and a medic relative (in another country) is generously purchasing us more, which they'll bring over in December - merry fucking Christmas.

LolaOchLotta · 24/10/2018 10:53

Why is this super injunction a hot topic right now? Is it a case of 'look a squirrel'? I mean the public know how sleazy these celebrity / business/ politician men are anyways. It will be case of juicy news today and forgotten by tomorrow.

I follow these threads religiously but I feel really anxious reading them too. Anyone else feel like this? How does one disentangle 25 years of life, friends & family to relocate? Taking the children out of their school (well over the age of 6) would be really disruptive, they don't even speak my own native language well. We'll just have to stick around here and see how it goes. I am already used to being treated as 'not one of us' by British people but I am lucky to have a lovely group of friends and dh's family are quite nice too, we can't just leave all this behind and start over in a country where I haven't lived for 25 years. Sad I am not that adventurous. But good luck to those who feel brave enough to return to their country of origin.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2018 10:58

DG I see it as at least a possible mini-deal, to be signed separately, if no deal becomes certain

It might be acceptable in a WA too, as the final push, if NI was agreed, because it does give the E27 expats the safety some need, if they have to return for a few years to care for elderly parents in the EU
Guy Verhofstadt seems in favour, which is a good sign the EP may be

The EU could always ad the ECJ demand back on to any post-Brexit trade talks - which they would in any case.

Swipe left for the next trending thread