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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 07:57

INCOMING:
Another no deal warning

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-no-deal-theresa-may-border-force-criminals-national-audit-office-talks-a8598206.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
It's too late to prepare UK borders for no-deal Brexit, National Audit Office tells Theresa May
Failure to plan will open up 'weaknesses' which 'organised criminals and others are likely to be quick to exploit' – if UK crashes out of the EU

Britain has left it too late to prepare its borders for a no-deal Brexit, which would be a gift for organised criminals and chaotic for traders, the UK’s spending watchdog warns Theresa May today.

Only one of 12 new “critical systems” is likely to be ready after planning was undermined by “political uncertainty and delays in negotiations”, the National Audit Office (NAO) has concluded.

Which would be aggrieved by an inability to access EU security databases.

Taking back control of our borders...

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TheElementsSong · 24/10/2018 07:59

To be fair, the AIBU thread has lots of unfamiliar names who are telling the OP what’s what. Maybe they’re all lurkers who have learned stuff from reading Westminstenders?

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 08:04

The Times of London @thetimes
Whitehall will not have the staff, infrastructure or systems in place to protect and police the UK’s land and sea border with the European Union in a no-deal Brexit, officials have admitted

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-we-can-t-guard-no-deal-border-officials-admit-dzg3xvss6?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1540362957
Brexit: We can’t guard no-deal border, officials admit

Whitehall will not have the staff, infrastructure or systems in place to protect and police the UK’s land and sea border with the European Union in a no-deal Brexit, officials have admitted.

The National Audit Office (NAO) said that ministers and civil servants had conceded that it was too late to put in place a “fully functioning” no-deal border by the end of March. They added that businesses and individuals who relied on the border running smoothly “will pay the price”.

In its report the NAO said that 11 out of 12 “critical systems” that need to be replaced or changed to manage a no deal Brexit may not be ready in time.

Gosh if only we'd seen this coming. If only we'd known this months ago. If only it hadn't been called project fear. If only it had been taken seriously.

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 08:05

Ooo there's a AIBU?!

Epic.

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woman11017 · 24/10/2018 08:05

@adamfleming
The @thisNAO report on the UK border and #Brexit is quite something www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-UK-border-preparedness-for-EU-exit.pdf

Motheroffourdragons · 24/10/2018 08:14

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

1tisILeClerc · 24/10/2018 08:25

It would be interesting to know the multiple of £350 million a week that Brexit will be costing the UK. I suppose it probably won't be revealed and we will have to wait another 30 (or is it 50) years before parliamentary records are available.

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 08:33

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/24/andrea-jenkyns-theresa-may-muststand-aside-good-country/amp/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Andrea Jenkyns: Theresa May must 'stand aside for the good of the country'

“How long can this Brexit shambles go on?”, “I have been betrayed” and “I’m voting UKIP next time, I no longer trust the Prime Minister” these are such some of the comments made in the emails I receive daily. This is undoubtedly a sad state of affairs and unless we start listening to our constituents then we are heading for an electoral disaster at the next general election.

It was a difficult decision for me to publically speak out against the Prime Minister. I have been a loyal backbench MP since I was first elected in 2015, but more and more of my colleagues and constituents are dismayed by the lack of leadership and the wrong direction the party and the country are being taken in, especially over Brexit. I remain a loyal Conservative, however, enough is enough and it is time for there to be a new leader.

Andrea is saying for the good of the country the Conservatives need to get rid of May otherwise they won't win the next GE.

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 08:35

Jess Phillips @ jessphillips
All those telling me to name him, I don't know who he is and the system stops those silenced telling me.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2018 08:41

Any pensioners, or anyone who has savings to support themselves for a few months, emigration is feasible,
but very tricky otherwise, especially if you have family
or health issues - because EHIC may not be valid after Brexit

Anyone with all kids below about 6, now if ever is really the time,
as school starts 6 or 7 in most of the E27 and the DC pick up the language v quickly at that age, much tougher later for most.

I know people keep thinking of France, but the RoI solves the language problem and has already attracted a lot of extra business.
It is looking to boost its population by 1 million over the next decade or so
It could an option too for those who want to move just before Brexit and work in less skilled work, which wouldn't bring a visa later
You'd understand all the paperwork too, so would be far more independent

For anyone with professional skills in demand, with either the language or working where English is acceptable, you could wait to start job-hunting until it is announced there is no deal.
An employer like that can organise a visa, plus sort all the paperwork for registering, healthcare etc when you get there

I got my 1st job in Germany, back in the late 1980s, knowing 3 words of German (Ja, Nein, Schweinhund !) but the working language was perfectly acceptable as English (science geek)
Now it is a lot more common in science / engineering there to work in English only and even the main trains have announcements in English too
I'm single, no kids though, which makes such a difference in mobility

boldly Maybe just look for a job there, but let your home in the UK ?
Renters generally have more rights on the continent, but the main thing is no Council Tax
In Germany at least, the "Landsteuer" is literally about 10% of CT and is always included (hidden) in any rent anyway

Post Could your DH spend 6 months or a year in the NL on his own ? Daily Skype and maybe with visits to / fro if transport connections allow.
Flights, meds etc surely would be back to normal after then, even in a worst case

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2018 08:45

frumpety, MrsR8 Brexit Day remains 29 March, 11pm UK time

The govt could theoretically flounce us out earlier, but imo that will NOT happen:

they would hope until 10:59 pm that the EU would blink and spout cherries - DD's strategy from 2016 -
and any early exit means the Tories would totally carry the can,; even the tabloids couldn't spin that

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2018 08:51

A btl on that Times Twitter thread about The Plan:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1054847004633976832

"This isn't an internal debate - it's a negotiation with the EU
If the EU can't agree with these plans due to their own political structures and rules, it's just the Tories farting at each other"

HowDoYouFeelNow · 24/10/2018 09:05

TheElements I am one of those lurkers. I've posted a tiny bit on these threads before but my knowledge pales in comparison to everyone here's, so I prefer to lurk.

I emailed my MP last night after reading about food and medicine shortages (how can this have only just been picked up on by the MSM? And why isn't it top news story everywhere?). I don't have much hope because she's a member of the ERG and in that StandUp4Brexit campaign, but at least I've tried.

I just cannot believe some still think Brexit is a good idea. We are utterly fucked.

1tisILeClerc · 24/10/2018 09:10

BCF {Schweinhund}
I am intrigued as to how your knowledge of German managed to get you through a job interview. As a veterinary surgeon perhaps? Just kidding, obviously.

frumpety · 24/10/2018 09:24

If we have a no deal scenario in December, we, as in the UK can continue to pootle along until the deadline date. Would a no deal scenario in December cause issues, fall in pound, capital flight , exodus of business etc ? And would this occur during a time when Parliament is normally in recess?

frumpety · 24/10/2018 09:25

Ooops or do you think things would remain the same until deadline day ? Would business hang on another 3 months in the hope of something last minute ?

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 09:26

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Guy Verhofstadt says Theresa May told him at a No 10 meeting she's ready to grant lifelong right of return to UK for EU citizens if EU27 give unlimited onward free movement to Brits on continent. He urges Donald Tusk to accept the offer 'so our citizens have no negative fallout.'

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Quietrebel · 24/10/2018 09:26

Let's not forget who brexiteers aspire to please and emulate; and that rhetoric is utterly incompatible with EU ideals:

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-rally-houston-nationalist-speech-ted-cruz-globalists-midterms-beto-o-rourke-a8597516.html

MyBrexitIsIll · 24/10/2018 09:33

I’m wondering if any of you have an idea on the attitude towards foreigners if we have a No Deal and the mess most sane people expect.

Been an EU citizen, this worries me nearly more than food shortage etc...
I’m thinking that seeing the increase in racism and xenophobia, seeing the attitude in (some) newspapers that it’s all the EU’s fault for not giving the UK what it wants, then there will be a huge backlash against EU citizens when food and medicines are getting sparse.

Do you think I’m over reacting there?

Bearbehind · 24/10/2018 09:33

Guy Verhofstadt says Theresa May told him at a No 10 meeting she's ready to grant lifelong right of return to UK for EU citizens if EU27 give unlimited onward free movement to Brits on continent. He urges Donald Tusk to accept the offer 'so our citizens have no negative fallout.

If that's true what am I missing here?

Isn't that FOM?

In which case why don't we just announce staying in SM/CU?

Mistigri · 24/10/2018 09:35

Bear she's only talking about EU citizens with settled status.

In other news, the HO has changed the rules on obtaining settled status to make it more difficult. (See the 3million Twitter account).

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 09:38

If that's true what am I missing here?

Isn't that FOM?

Nothing.

It's like a customs arrangement which is not a customs union.

It's about selling it to the public and Brexiteers not getting what she means for long enough for her to get it all signed off.

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Bearbehind · 24/10/2018 09:38

Thanks misti

But the reciprocal part is requesting unlimited FM to Brits on the continent so doesn't sound to be restricted to those there now.

If it was restricted to those Brits in the EU now they would actually end up with more rights than UK Residents as they could move anywhere in the EU.

Bearbehind · 24/10/2018 09:42

It's about selling it to the public and Brexiteers not getting what she means for long enough for her to get it all signed off.

I hope that's true.

But it would still massively annoy me that they were too stupid to see it.

MyBrexitIsIll · 24/10/2018 09:43

Misti what are the changes??