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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:13

🤔 OK, Jess Phillips will reveal tomorrow whch very wealthy man is trying to gag the Torygraph over a # MeToo allegation against him

< I wonder who told her the name ? 😂 >

SonicVersusGynaephobia · 23/10/2018 23:13

How long until he's named on Twitter, Red!

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 23:17

Between 12.00 and 12.30pm tomorrow, if Jess is going to PMQ it!

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:19

Aston Martin considers flying in parts after Brexit amid Dover port concerns

That would work for a very low volume, high price car .... but it assumes planes will be flying

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/aston-martin-considers-flying-parts-161200253.html

"There is undoubtedly a cost associated with it, but it's cheaper than not building cars,"

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 23:19

Now may be too late re the house, worriedMutha. The property market is slow and dropping, so you might not sell for an acceptable price - and yopur buyer may pull out at the last moment if there is bad news.

Agree with this.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:36

Uk news media keep referring to "a possible French decision to reintroduce customs checks" 🤔
but is NOT their, or the EU decision

it is a WTO requirement if there is no deal

France could apply for an emergency 30-day WTO waiver, BUT it would have to be their emergency, not just the UK's
and Macron might well decide it doesn't reach that level

Also, "customs checks" means hours of checking each manufactured item: certifications for safety, electricity, recyclability etc

For food / agriculture exports, North said before that there will be NO food exports for at least 6 months,
because it will take that long to get a 3rd country onto the EU's databases

So don't bother exporting food to the EU; it will just clog up the parking spaces

Willofthesimpletons · 23/10/2018 23:43

Our house went on in August and not a sniff of interest. Houses on our street were being snapped up regardless of condition within 3 weeks. I estimate we missed the boat by 2-3 months.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:46

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/23/no-10-denies-cabinet-row-over-brexit-backstop

David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, said that he was terrified at the idea of a no-deal Brexit,
which he said would be as serious as Black Wednesday
– when the pound crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, leaving the Tories’ reputation for economic competence shredded for 15 years.

< Even he doesn't get it - I remember Black Wednesday and my mortgage shooting up to 15%

I do NOT remember any discussion of the govt running convoys to bring in food and meds.
No discussion of planes being grounded, ports logjammed
Of exports being stopped

If Brexit is only as bad as Black Wenesday or the 2008 financial crash, I would be delighted >

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 23:49

Oo I do like a good super injunction story.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:51

Sorry, Will there are a fea areas apparently that are still booming, but they are exceptions

I sold mine in 2017 - it took a while even then, as I originally marketed it at its 2015 valuation, when similar houses where selling for that price
I changed agents and lowered the price 4%, which did it

Willofthesimpletons · 24/10/2018 00:16

Yes, our area was still reasonably healthy until all the technical notices started being published. The people likely to buy our house are also the ones likely to lose their jobs if a major employer(s) pull out, which they've hinted they will. So, no chance of selling at present.

Peregrina · 24/10/2018 02:07

Same with DS's house - only interest a derisory offer 15% or more below what they hoped to get. As it happened, their circumstances changed.......

Peregrina · 24/10/2018 02:09

I know that the market does tend to cool in the Autumn and then pick up again in the Spring.....

boldlygoingsomewhere · 24/10/2018 05:49

I worry that we’ve left it too late to try and move elsewhere now. OH and I both speak Dutch and have lived in the Netherlands and Belgium in the past. Just been for a long weekend and it was lovely.
The practicalities of moving back to one of those countries paralyses me. The search for work, the need to try and sell our house here...
We are both university educated but don’t have a ‘profession’ as such.

I’m so angry that the government is even contemplating a no-deal scenario.

PostNotInHaste · 24/10/2018 06:51

Thank you for the link Hazardswan We are in a very fortunate position with me being a dual national and DH having a job that he could probably work remotely for a bit plus family members with space. DS being year 10 is our main sticking point but obviously in the event of things really going to shit his education is salvageable later unlike DH’s life.

I hope all this faux concern from the cabinet and all this we didn’t know when they clearly did is paving the way for a deal that is going to piss some people off but all bets are off on everything these days.

UnnecessaryFennel · 24/10/2018 07:05

post, agree, I'm hoping that all this shock and awe from the cabinet is just a bit of softening up so that everyone capitulates to the crappy deal we'll end up with.

Still makes me furious. I don't want A Deal. I don't want No Deal. I want to Remain. I just can't believe we are on this road.

There are still so many heads in the sand, though. I work in a university in an area that has already seen an impact from Brexit that will only get worse. As far as I know, from my entire faculty only me and one other colleague who is an EU national went on the march. No talks about it. Mention prepping and people laugh. The Principal sent out a message last week saying they would contribute to citizenship costs for EU staff but that's been it. I am seriously concerned and think about it all the time, whilst everyone around me just pootles on. I feel like I'm in a parallel universe.

ShinyElena · 24/10/2018 07:06

Red Yes, the Telegraph are re-enacting episodes of the Press. I loved that show. Although I did not expect the Telegraph to be the Herald in real life.

Mrsr8 · 24/10/2018 07:09

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Mrsr8 · 24/10/2018 07:14

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bellinisurge · 24/10/2018 07:21

Suttons Daze on YouTube did a really sensible, practical and friendly series in September to coincide with national prepping month in the USA . A nice normal woman. No camo, guns or tin foil hats. Lots of sensible advice to dip into and out of.
More about "homesteading" than prepping which may suit people better. Not especially rural. Some good ideas.

UnnecessaryFennel · 24/10/2018 07:25

I could get behind homesteading. I grew up obsessed with Little House on the Prairie Grin

frumpety · 24/10/2018 07:26

If we reach a no deal scenario by the end of December, does that mean we crash out in December or will we be allowed to pootle along until the end of March as we are ?

Mrsr8 · 24/10/2018 07:30

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2018 07:54

If we reach a no deal scenario by the end of December, does that mean we crash out in December or will we be allowed to pootle along until the end of March as we are ?

Pootle. Cos we need the time to prepare for No Deal. EU can't force us to leave early.

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