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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:31

Yes.

Utterly.

#StandUp4Brexit @StandUp4Brexit
Very pleased to announce that Sir Christopher Chope, MP for #Christchurch, has pledged to #StandUp4Brexit, taking our pledged number of MPs to 49

Thanks so much Christopher!

Interesting....

...especially if they DON'T go for her at the 1922 tomorrow.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 19:33

woman I would have been astonished if there are sufficient SPARE warehouses to store meds or food that must be climate-controlled.

There is barely enough warehouse space even in normal times

  • it is too expensive to keep property lying around empty but maintained in case you need it -
and that type of warehouse is the most expensive in the mass market
BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 19:36

The govt can't order business to stockpile at their own expense
it would have to foot the bill, or invoke the Civil Contingencies Act very soon and declare a State of Emergency

but admitting no deal Brexit brings massive problems would be defeatist, so they won't, unless the riots begin

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:38

In the meds article:

Mike Thompson, chief executive of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry, revealed earlier in the same committee session there is a “request into government to support the building of additional cold chain supply”. He said there was not enough cold chain warehouses in the UK to store the extra drug stockpiles the government had requested.

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TheElementsSong · 23/10/2018 19:39

I'm wondering whether our friendly neighbourhood Leavers are still adamant they won't be stockpiling so much as a bag of flour.

Or whether they'll seamlessly slide into "Well of course it's the totally patriotic thing to do, to fill one's loft with Fray Bentos pies! Anybody who isn't stockpiling is a Sabotaging Traitor! And we have said so all along and this is completely and utterly what we intended to happen when we put our X in the Leave box in 2016."

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 19:39

So sorry for everyone worried, especially about meds 💐 and I hope someone just blinks soon, but ...

I'm so fucking glad I'm in Germany !
You are probably relieved to be in France, Misti ?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 19:44

red Oh bloody hell, building warehouses is serious, especially that expensive kind

They need the land, architectural plans - hopefully take existing ones - planning permission ! - that might have to be rushed through by emergencyt legislation - building time ...

They need govt subsidies or that would hammer even the big pharma companies

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:44

#StandUp4Brexit @StandUp4Brexit
Very pleased to announce that @EdwardLeighMP for #Gainsborough & #Horncastle, has pledged to #StandUp4Brexit, taking our pledged number of MPs to 50

Thanks so much Edward!

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:46

Oh yes, we don't have the legal powers to requistion the floatilla. And there isn't enough boats on the open market either.

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GD12 · 23/10/2018 19:50

How long will it be until we hear about the government's emergency airport plans and planes not flying too? I'm guessing pretty soon as this very real also.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:51

Robert Peston on Facebook
A shocked Cabinet was today told of Department of Transport contingency plans to own or lease roll-on roll-off lorry ferries to make sure vital supplies of goods and medicines continue to reach these shores if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

According to work commissioned by Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, a possible French decision to reintroduce customs checks could reduce freight coming into the UK via Dover and the Channel Tunnel by around 85%.

So the UK would in those circumstances have to bring in vital imports to other ports such as the Port of London, Tilbury and Liverpool.

The proposed scheme is called GOOL, or Government Owned or Operated Logistics.

“It’s the kind of stuff governments do in a time of war” said one member of the cabinet. “It is as serious as that”.

That said the best precedent for the plan was the creation by Clement Atlee’s Labour government in 1948 of the National Freight Corporation, which was originally known as British Road Services.

In the case of GOOL, three options are being examined: buying ships, leasing them or converting military vessels.

I am told the military option is thought to be the least viable.

“This was the bombshell in a meeting that contained lots of dull stuff” said another minister.

He added that perhaps it would be the “sobering moment” that showed colleagues why a no-deal Brexit would be “so damaging”.

Why will it?

Brexiteers don't believe this. They STILL think its Project Fear.

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Squigglypig · 23/10/2018 19:53

I am now officially shitting myself. How bad does it have to be before the Govt revokes Art 50 (if they even can). Gin

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:55

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/23/global-markets-take-fright-at-cocktail-of-geopolitical-risks?CMP=twt_gu

Global markets take fright at cocktail of geopolitical risks

US/China trade dispute, US interest rates, Brexit and Italy’s budget spook investors

Caterpillar, the US construction equipment company seen as a bellwether for the US economy disappointed investors when it reported third-quarter earnings on Tuesday with a warning that raw material costs had risen since Donald Trump’s introduction of import tariffs on steel.

and

European markets suffered after the EU commission rejected a draft budget proposal submitted by the Italian government, in a move designed to force the populist administration in Rome to rein in its spending.

amongst other points.

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 19:57

What the public will really want to see in the middle of food and medicine shortages and chaos is the appearance of a royal baby.

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Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 19:58

GD12 do what you can in terms of stockpiling then ban worry. Some meds will get through, the supply chain will be slowed but even if it does cut completely that won't be for long. The slowness however will likely go on a bit but something will get through. If your meds can be stored at whatever tempretures that's a plus.

Contact your MP it's okay to be a nuisance and contact them repeatedly. If you have family or friends who are willing get them writing to their MPs. It ent over til it's over.

700,000 + people marched last wkend theres likely to be more between now and March.

And lots of love to you ❤

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 20:01

The Law Society @TheLawSociety
^Our data heatmap shows a looming crisis in the disappearing number of criminal duty solicitors, posing a real threat to #accesstojustice.
In 5 - 10 years there will be not be nearly enough criminal duty solicitors in many regions inc Norfolk & Cornwall^

the-law-society.carto.com/builder/85de6858-77ba-4568-b225-41ffeed3b6df/embed?state=%7B%22map%22%3A%7B%22ne%22%3A%5B49.95121990866204%2C-9.832763671875002%5D%2C%22sw%22%3A%5B54.86396293985479%2C6.251220703125001%5D%2C%22center%22%3A%5B52.47608904123904%2C-1.7907714843750002%5D%2C%22zoom%22%3A7%7D%7D

This weirdly looks like a Brexit Map.

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GD12 · 23/10/2018 20:06

@Hazardswan Thanks. I probably won't have a job either so we'll all be moving back to my mums as well. Urghhh.

UnnecessaryFennel · 23/10/2018 20:07

Sorry, but - what the actual fuck?

This cannot be happening. Fucking flotillas?

DP and I have been talking about stockpiling for a while now but I must admit we've not actually got around to doing anything (bar a few extra tins of beans and, ummm, passata). Much as I loathe Brexit, and much as I've thought about shortages etc, I suppose a part of me has still been in denial it could really ever get that bad.

Fuck.

Somerville · 23/10/2018 20:07

imo Varadkhar won't give in

I entirely agree, BigChoc. In fact, it would be political suicide for him to give in - ending the GFA (which is what reimposing that border would be) when a large majority of the island of Ireland are behind it is impossible.

HOWEVER we also know that Ireland is working very hard to focus on getting a deal, because of self-same GFA. I think that bears remembering as part of the equation on when the time and costs of no deal become so heavy that EU27 end negotiations. Basically, I am less pessimistic on that then some of you, I think, expressed earlier in this thread. Ireland will be lobbying until the very last minute for a deal that preserves the GFA. And the EU don’t want blood on their hands.

SacrebleuLondres · 23/10/2018 20:07

Brilliant! We are chartering ships now!!

Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 20:07

Made the mistake of discussing med supply with DP....now have a worried DP.

Somehow it doesn't come across as reassuring to be all "darling don't worry we already have an extra month supply of most of your meds and I have a 6 month supply of one of them, I'm on target by March to have a 3 month stock of everything"

It just sounds nuts, even if you have your arse covered the fact you are even needing to cover it is BONKERS.

Also note I did not tell him we need 6 months....

And he's likely to need a med change early next year....

Oh look... Gin

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 20:09

If we have food shortages on that scale what are the knock on effects?

School closures?

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Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 20:10

GD12 thank fuck for mums...Also how big is her loft/shed/garage and could you plant things in her garden?

I'm joking....but also kinda serious.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 20:14

School closures
Exam cancellations?

Med storage is problematic. Needs cold stores, I understand. There aren't enough.

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