Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
43
Mistigri · 23/10/2018 16:51

I would like to think that we all, as a society, benefit from better quality and more wide ranging higher education (e.g. more doctors, engineers, better informed public debate, etc.).

Absolutely. But the gain is not evenly spread, and the left has to think hard about that.

MO4D: if only 30% is paid back then it is functioning like a graduate tax (only the wealthy repay it fully). Obv I don't think the UK system is perfect (or even good), but in the UK context making HE free as proposed by Corbyn is an enormous bung to the middle class. The LDs got played good and proper over student fees IMO.

Mistigri · 23/10/2018 16:53

EU officials and diplomats are carefully scrutinising PM's speech yesterday. Everyone is in the dark. “Only Olly Robbins, her chief negotiator, the PM and a tiny circle know what is going on and what the plan is,” said one source.

Glad it's not just me ... I'm totally baffled by what's going on at the moment.

borntobequiet · 23/10/2018 17:19

Ah, it was the Netherlands tricolour I saw flying outside Horse Guards! That makes sense.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 17:23

A bill for the withdrawal agreement followed by 2nd referendum on the outcome popped up on parliament website.

Has anyone seen this?
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2017-2019/0208/cbill_2017-20190208_en_2.htm?fbclid=IwAR3MYm1LAHnQJiTwoM_yjrq208fo6uVVwxTyZ_C5ccDdMElnJKeXz77Zr5E#l1g1
7:57 am - 23 Oct 2018

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Westministenders: A Change of Mood
EthelHallowsBroomstick · 23/10/2018 17:29

@woman11017

Ooh! That's interesting. Forgive my ignorance but what does it mean if a Bill appears there? Does it have to be discussed or can it remain just an idea?

(Sorry for what is probably a really stupid question)

prettybird · 23/10/2018 17:30

I know there is a lot of resentment that Unis in Scotland are "free" for Scots. Scottish students only have to take out loans for maintenance, with a bursary for the lowest parental earners - so a maximum loan of c£5.8k (total maintenance of £7.7k), with only c£4.7k available (and no bursary) for those parents that earn over £34k. The Scottish Government pays the Uni fees (only £1.8k for Scottish students) - but that has also led to allegations that the Unis discriminate against Scottish applicants, given that they can get £9k from English students. (But I'm "old school": I think you do need good results to go to Uni and I think the pendulum has swung too far in making HE "open to all").

But , it is about choices. The Scottish Government chooses to spend a proportion of its financial allocation on that.

And given that Scottish students start paying back at a much lower rate (c£18k), more gets returned to the Scottish Government coffers - and less ends up getting written off after 30 years (currently 35 years). The massive loan isn't such a discouragement, as the maximum debt after the usual 4 year degree is c£24k at graduation.

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
woman11017 · 23/10/2018 17:32

I'm clueless, it appears on the link, but waiting for wiser westminstenders to tell me it's a hoax. EthelHallowsBroomstick
or not?

EthelHallowsBroomstick · 23/10/2018 17:37

@woman11017

Fingers crossed, it's not! Though sadly I can well believe a lot of people will still vote to leave Sad

EthelHallowsBroomstick · 23/10/2018 17:38

@woman11017

Would vote to leave even. Getting ahead of myself there! Blush

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 17:47

Re the 1922 Committee

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Interestingly, May was not summoned to attend tomorrow - but has herself asked to go. This must mean the Chief Whip is confident of pulling off a choreographed show of loyalty.

Standup4brexit.com now has 45 pledged Tory MP supporters

OP posts:
woman11017 · 23/10/2018 17:48

This from yesterday.
inews.co.uk/news/civil-service-prepare-second-vote/

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 17:49

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

prettybird · 23/10/2018 17:57

The other difference in Scotland is that the interest rate on the loan is very low - 1.5% at the moment (base rate?). So if you are paying it off at 9% of over £18k, most people will see it reducing.

frankiestein401 · 23/10/2018 17:58

there are too many things wrong with student loans they need to go.

The extortionate rate of interest hasnt been mentioned yet - totally unjustifiable and a major factor in the huge forecast debt.

mybrainhurtsalot · 23/10/2018 18:03

The stuff upthread about the public vote, is it related to this private members bill?

services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/europeanunionwithdrawalagreementpublicvote.html

If so it is due to have a second reading on Friday.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 18:10

Mother That is still 30 billion that would have to be written off - nearly the annual defence budget
Plus most of the 70% who don't pay in full will still have paid some of it.

The situation may even be that the government has passed on the debt to banks and would have to pay the full £105 bn itself - I don't know the legal situation about who exactly holds the debt

Even £30 bn was too much money to promise, even for McDonnel & Corbyn, who were desperate for the student vote

It would be expensive to abolish all fees from now on, but it is doable and probably of benefit to the country and the less well off especially

However imo it is not doable to write off old debts
It is also not normal practice when any other new benefit is brought in to compensate people who would have been entitled to it in previous years
Also, as I asked: Should the students who have already paid receive the money back ?

Let's concentrate on abolishing fees for new students,
rather than crucifying any politicians / party who say they can find that money, but not the much larger amount to cancel all the current debts

No, it's not fair for those with debt.
It's also not fair that poor students don't get a full maintenance grant through to PhD, as I did
but it's about what is affordable and the greater numbers involved.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 18:11

Thanks mybrainhurtsalot .

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 18:11

The figure that was quoted before the last GE, to write off the debt, was £60 bn

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 18:17

GD12 Data transfer / protection has been an important Brexit issue that iirc DG and I have highlighted as something that may be overlooked

Your link indicates the govt has realised how much work is involved, but that they won't manage it in time
Bad news - and few poepl will reaise the effects it may have on our exports.

Of course, if we crash out with no deal, it may be almost irrelevant, as there will be so many other barriers to exports

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 18:25

Smile Women workers' strike in Glasgow today. Singing.
twitter.com/PALucindaC/status/1054708690517921792

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 18:25

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

missmoon · 23/10/2018 18:29

Regarding tuition fees (or lack thereof) in Scotland, there is now quite a bit of research to show that this has been a regressive policy, due to a cap on places, and the current places going disproportionately to middle class students. See here for a good discussion: www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/22/labour-scrap-tuition-fees-not-progressive-measure-early-years-education

Mrsr8 · 23/10/2018 18:31

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 18:32

We sure would Mrs8 sure would.

@GarethThomasMP
My bill calling for a public vote on the Brexit deal has shifted date as a huge number of other bills were likely to be heard ahead of it, reducing its chance of a 2nd reading. I am hoping the 23rd of November will be for fruitful. Urge your MP to get behind a #peoplesvote

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 18:44

www.hsj.co.uk/policy-and-regulation/brexit-ministers-launch-tens-of-millions-bid-to-stockpile-medicine-/7023652.article?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=newsfeed
Brexit: Ministers launch 'tens of millions' bid to stockpile medicine

Ministers have launched a tender worth “tens of millions” of pounds to provide extra storage capacity in the event of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

Speaking to the health committee today, secretary of state Matt Hancock, said the Department of Health and Social Care was tendering for more warehouse storage facilities to stockpile the extra six weeks’ of medicine the government requested the pharma industry stockpile.

Mr Hancock said: “We have issued today an invitation to tender for additional storage capacity. We are looking for additional storage that is ready for the Brexit demand, or space that can be converted to medical storage, or for new facilities [such as cold storage]. We are confident that [storage] can be delivered by March next year.”

He added DHSC expected the tender to cost in the “tens of millions” but it doesn’t have “exact costs as it is buying from the market.”

Is this just tens of millions for the storage? Not the drugs?

So if there is no legal obligation to stockpile, then could end up with empty warehouses?

OP posts: