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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 13:08

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
So... at least four Tory MPs have submitted letters of no confidence in Theresa May since Friday – and two of them are Remain-backers

One new Remainer letter-writer told friends they think Chequers is “the worst of all worlds” and they want a second referendum to decide between a clean break from the EU or remaining

The other Remainer letter-writer believes the Tory brand is being permanently damaged by May’s leadership. The other two are Brexiteers.

(My guess is this shows both that MPs on all sides of the party have lost faith in May, but also that they weren't as close to 48 as suggested, at least before last week)

Meanwhile ERG MPs say Jacob Rees-Mogg is no longer telling them not to submit letters. "I told Jacob that I was going to put in a letter. He did not encourage me but he definitely did not try to persuade me otherwise either." JRM non-committal on this..

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/at-least-four-tory-mps-have-submitted-letters-of-no?__twitter_impression=true
At Least Four Tory MPs Have Submitted Letters Of No Confidence In Theresa May Since Friday
BuzzFeed News understands two Remain-backing MPs are among those who have lost faith in the prime minister.

So of the 44 standup4brexit.com supporters only a maximum of 43 have submitted letters - if we believe JRM hasn't. But 2 Remainers have.

If those standup4brexit.com lot do decide to go for it, then there could have 46 letters in theory.

Standup4brexit.com are quiet today.

Tomorrow will be interesting.

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Peregrina · 23/10/2018 13:23

We keep hearing noises from the factions within the Tory party and think that tomorrow or the day after will lead to a crunch, but then, nothing happens and May survives another day.

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 13:24

It's impossible to escape the feeling that the LibDems are being held to a far higher standard of integrity that Labour or Tories have ever been.

Which seems to benefit .... Labour and Tories Hmm

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 13:41

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DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 13:44

I just think that the whole university education in this country is unsustainable in its current form, and needs a proper overhaul.

Well if we stopped viewing education as a commodity, but instead as something that ultimately benefits us all, things might just "fall out in the wash". But that's anathema to the free-market "there's no such thing as society" brigade.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 13:58

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Letters haven’t emerged for May - but meanwhile three tory members of one of Bercow’s committees quit over Dame Laura Cox report on bullying

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Mistigri · 23/10/2018 14:05

High quality education has a price and someone has to pay for it. Those who benefit from it - by earning higher salaries - should probably make a higher contribution than others who haven't (either because they have used their education to enter a skilled but low wage profession or because they joined the workforce without going via uni).

It is true that other European countries have lower fees. Here in France it costs virtually nothing to go to uni. But the quality of a French university degree is rather low (with some exceptions), the failure rate is extremely high, and many bright students end up on private or semi-private courses that cost €€€. If my daughter had taken up her place at Sciences Po Paris it would have cost me/ her around €15k for her bachelors and quite a bit more for the full 5 years.

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 14:07

High quality education has a price and someone has to pay for it.

The same could be said of medical care. Yet we're trying to save an NHS which won't charge the patients Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:10

My uni education was free, with full maintenance grant too (mum had v low income)
However, only 6% of students went to uni and far far fewer had MSc and PhD

We should look at how other countries in Europe finance this - the countries I know either have no fees, or about 1k.
Some have maintenance grants too.
I don't think they all have that much lower % at uni.

What would pay for some students - and probably improve the talent in public service -
is to say that there will be no debt if there is say 5 or 7 years public service right afterwards

  • in a job where a degree is an asset - in: NHS, armed forces, police, civil service
BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:12

German unis seem pretty good; most of our staff - outside my particular group - come from them and have a very high level of knowledge and ability to work

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:18

It would be very expensive to make uni free and especially to pay maintenance grants - which make such a difference to kids from very low income families, to whom the idea of such debt is too horrific to take on.

It would be fair to cancel existing debt, but horrendously expensive, after all the years it's been going.
Before the last GE, a Tory criticising Corbyn - so it may have been a gross exaggeration - said it would cost 60 billion 😦

Also, should we refund the millions of former students who've paid off all or part of their debt ?

All this shows how the young can suffer for decades and have their lives blighted from decisions by politicians ... sometimes made before those affected were old enough to vote.

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 14:19

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Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 14:22

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bellinisurge · 23/10/2018 14:22

Fewer university places that only a few (who pass the exams) get to. I went years ago on a full grant because my family were poor but I had the necessary grades from a big standard comprehensive. No tuition fees.
Not everyone should go to university.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:23

I would pay higher tax for free uni education, as well as better funding the NHS and the police

I pay more taxes in Germany (although my gross pay is higher too) but I am OK with this as part of the social contract and to enjoy pretty good public services

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 14:24

This looks like it might be promising

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Breaking: EU will offer British PM a UK-wide customs arrangement but it will require a separate treaty via @RTENewsNow

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1023/1006113-brexit/
EU may offer British PM a UK-wide customs union

Bruno Waterfield @BrunoBrussels
Deal is still on
twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1052480483978858496?s=19

Its looks like a customs union. It quacks like a customs union. But if you ask May its not a customs union. Though as Faisal Islam said yesterday there is a GAAT definition of union of customs which is a customs union.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:28

mother I read that the problem is that losses from the current system are expected to be spread over many years,
whereas just cancelling debt requires a lot of money pretty soon .

Also, even 3k or so for a few years before 2012 does add up with millions of students - I think the maintenance costs are a major part of the loan, too.

Or were you thinking purely of excusing only the part of the debt that is for fees ? - complicated to work out and some new expensive bureaucracy, but technically possible

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 14:29

I think the problem is that we have way too many universities, to be honest.

Because like "renewable energy" in the noughties, education was the gold rush of the 90s. (Yet !) another get-rich-quick-scheme for the Toryboy spivs that Thatcher spawned at the expense of actually making anything. It's hardly any wonder that the best solution these wankstains can come up with to the "housing crisis" is to tinker with interest rates.

Somewhere, on another planet while people are freezing to death, their equivalents are arguing about what colour fire should be.

(See also: trains; electricity/gas/water; broadband ...)

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:32

Ex-Tory MP urged to apologise for ‘cretin’ jibe over boy with EU flag

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/23/former-tory-mp-stewart-jackson-urged-to-apologise-for-cretin-jibe-at-boy-with-eu-flag
...
Anthony Hobley said he was stunned to see the tweet from Stewart Jackson, a former Tory MP who became Davis’s top adviser when he was Brexitt^ secretary.
...
Hobley said he had tweeted the picture of his 11-year-old stepson, who was in Great Ormond Street hospital recovering from an operation and
had been upset to miss the People’s Vote marchh^ in London.

On Monday night, Jackson replied: “What a pathetic cretin.”

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 14:35

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Mistigri · 23/10/2018 14:36

"The same could be said of medical care. Yet we're trying to save an NHS which won't charge the patients "

I'm firmly in the raise taxes to pay for the NHS camp. Higher ed is different though, because a minority get a larger benefit from it than everyone else (if uni education is free, low wage workers are paying for the children of the well paid to attend elite institutions which perpetuate privilege).

This is what happens in France, where taxpayers pay a lot of money for high quality tuition for a minority of middle class students who go through classes préparatoires and the grandes écoles. The plebs get cheap uni teaching in huge cohorts often with failure rates of well over 50%.

I'm playing devil's advocate here, but I don't think that who pays for higher education is a simple question for the left.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 14:39

The state of this;

Catherine Bearder @catherinemep
A Tory MEP has written an internal email to the whole European Parliament contesting that 700k people went to the people’s vote march on Saturday. He has also written 170 books on ghosts, UFOs and paranormal activity. This is my life

Charles Tannock @CharlesTannock
I have replied refuting this already to the whole parliament via email.

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woman11017 · 23/10/2018 14:43

Edwina Currie on Jeremy Vyne R2 yesterday went uncorrected as she explained that the march consisted of 200 000 people walking round in a circle. Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 14:43

red We must see if it's such a big step - other than PR -
because the CU would still have to be negotiated after the WA, i.e. during transition of however many years

So the backstop would have to be agreed in the WA and from that link:

"However, the EU, and the Irish Government still insist that a Northern Ireland-specific backstop remains in place,
even if a separate UK-wide customs arrangement is negotiated."

If the UK later chooses to leave CU, then the backstop would be activated.
Obviously, because the ERG might have the next PM

Also, the CU might not be "special" enough, since Turkey has a CU too and the EU were probably always happy enough to give the UK one.

The big thing is whether the UK would have to obey all the CU rules about goods, or whether it would have the commercial advantage that worried Barnier & co
If not, THAT would be a major EU concession.

Any CU however, should be a much better deal than Turkey re frictionless trade, because it is in the EU's interest to do so

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 14:44

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