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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 11:50

Or it just shows that people don't really know what the LibDems stand for ?

Tbf the Lib Dems don't know what the Lib Dems stand for.

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ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 23/10/2018 11:55

Or it just shows that people don't really know what the LibDems stand for

I used to vote LibDem. Never again, what’s the point? Didn’t they miss a key vote on Brexit just a few months ago?

Mistigri · 23/10/2018 11:55

"I think the majority of those exasperated by Corbyn's brexit stance have ditched their support for him already."

Based on what evidence?

You also have to consider whether a pro-people's vote stance would pick up floating voters, tactical voters, and pissed-off pro-business tories.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 12:00

Mistigri is right. It's not just traditional labour supporters. It's the swing voters who aren't particularly loyal to anyone.

And they are the ones that both parties need to chase.

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WorriedMutha · 23/10/2018 12:02

Corbyn was 20 points behind when May announced her snap election which she thought would be a slam dunk. That didn't end well did it. I have reservations aplenty about Labour (and I'm a member), but he fared much better once broadcasters had to observe electoral rules and he got a fairer representation in the media.

TheElementsSong · 23/10/2018 12:05

With regard to Brexit, there is no political party that I can vote for (in my constituency) except the LibDems. It's Labour or LibDems here. On certain other vital issues, there is no political party that I can vote for, full stop.

If it comes to a GE in the next few months, I'll vote LibDems because of Brexit. At any subsequent time, I will probably have to spoil my ballot.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 12:05

His campaign owed a lot to social media and collective enthusiasm for Corbyn too though.

The party needs more than Corbyn to pull off the same trick in another election.

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Mistigri · 23/10/2018 12:11

"Corbyn was 20 points behind when May announced her snap election"

The Labour Party was never 20 points behind the tories, you're talking about Corbyn's personal approval scores which AFAIK have not improved. At the same time Lab as a party appears (though polls are not unanimous) to be losing ground.

How Labour wins a GE, or even wins as many seats as last time, is a big question. I don't really understand why Corbynistas want a GE that they would almost certainly lose:

Violetparis · 23/10/2018 12:12

I'm talking about support for Corbyn being ditched if you are very pro EU and exasperated, rather than support for Labour or if you support some of Corbyn's ideas which I do. I have no evidence but it's my thoughts based on comments here, social media and anecdotally.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 12:13

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
great news for UK ingenuity/tech/design Dyson, but the key Brexit business backer does not choose to site his new car factory manufacturing/assembly in the UK

Dyson say Singapore will be the factory site because supply chains close to customers necessary in car industry.

but how does that not apply to actual existing UK car factories with supply chains/ customers in EU for whom he claimed last week No Deal “will not change anything”?

Here are Dyson comments from last week having a go at companies that actually decided to make cars in the UK on their No Deal Brexit concerns:
www.cityam.com/265756/james-dyson-car-makers-complain-all-time-and-no-deal-brexit/amp?__twitter_impression=true
James Dyson: No-deal Brexit 'will not change anything'

Also - more theoretical than anything - these cars predominantly for Asia. but this is from the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement signed last week - current 10% tariff on Singapore-made electric cars into the EU will be phased out to zero within 5 years. No Deal = 10% on UK made.

this isnt reason for it, but noteworthy a prominent/ politically persuasive advocate for No Deal being fine, sited his factory in a location which will under deal signed last week guarantee tariff free export to whole of EU, but not guaranteed at all for UK-made cars if No Deal

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Peregrina · 23/10/2018 12:14

It's either Lib Dem or Tory for me, so again there is only one way I could vote. Labour did pick up a lot of votes, and fielded a good candidate, but are so far behind they not going to get elected.

It was gratifying to see the total collapse of UKIP. I was observing at the Count and this could be seen as soon as the ballot boxes were opened.

Mistigri · 23/10/2018 12:15

So it's anecdata and not evidence.

It's this sort of sloppy echo chamber thinking that is likely IMO to lead to a labour trouncing if May gets a deal (any old crappy deal will do) and then calls an election

Violetparis · 23/10/2018 12:23

Yes, like I clearly said in my posts it's what I think. I didn't present my thoughts as facts. I thought the whole point of this thread was for discussion, to share thoughts and ideas as well as facts. I vote Labour and like Corbyn but know not everyone does and put this view forward.

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 12:23

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/michael-o-leary-interview-about-brexit-on-cnbc-1-5747078

You know, now I recall O'Leary is a very harsh critic of Brexit, I find myself wondering on the timing of the recent Ryanair shitstorm ? Because you know which story will eclipse the other ....

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 12:25

It's mostly because of tribalism, but also passion about something else:

either people can't bear to switch from the party they have always supported, or they feel more passionately than Brexit about
e.g uni fees, or self-ID, or ....

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 12:33

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 12:33

Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico
I think until recently, anti-May Brexiteers had the 48 no-confidence numbers required but not the 156 to oust her. Now I think they have the 156 but maybe not the 48 (or at least same 48) any more - she's so clearly leading us to no deal that some Brexiteers wld prefer she stayed

Thats an interesting way of thinking I hadn't considered. Lilico, for once, might be right!

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 12:36

Misti There was indeed a 20% lead for the Tories over Labour in some polls, when the GE was called:

Date / CON / LAB / LDEM / UKIP / GRN / CON Lead:

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 12:37

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
1922 Chairman Sir Graham Brady has told friends "he has no plans to go to No10 today" and is going about his normal business. Stand down folks (for now at least).

How much work is the word 'today' doing?

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 12:45

mother I totally disagree that new students should continue pay these fees, just because a future govt hasn't enough money to write off all those years of past student debt.

It is probably not practical without cutting something else - if that's Trident, I'm fine with that

Free uni is a benefit
When new benefits come in, we don't normally go back years repaying everyone who woould have been eligible if the benefit had existed then
Ditto higher tax allowances etc

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 12:48

Prof Curtice alert

Roger Harding @roger_harding
44% of people say they are a ‘very strong Remainer’ or a ‘very strong Leaver’

Only 9% claim to be a very strong supporter of a political party

Important new @whatukthinks/@UKandEU/@NatCen research on how Brexit is changing our political identities

ukandeu.ac.uk/a-nation-of-remainers-and-leavers-how-brexit-has-forged-a-new-sense-of-identity/
A nation of remainers and leavers? how Brexit has forged a new sense of identity
By Prof John Curtice

I've also picked out the follow para. It's surprised me slightly.
Strong identifiers are to be found on both sides of the Brexit debate. They are, though, a little more prevalent on the Remain side. While 45% of Leavers say they are a very strong Leaver, no less than 53% of Remainers report a very strong identity.

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Mistigri · 23/10/2018 12:53

Bigchoc I'd forgotten the gap was so big! Mea culpa.

Mistigri · 23/10/2018 12:55

Re student fees, the sensible approach might be to replace a covert form of graduate tax (ie student loans) with an explicit one.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 12:55

Were there lots of 18-24 year olds on the march
Yes, organised by OFOC and FFS.
10 000 young people led the march. The Peoples Vote idea came from a speech by Amatey Doku, deputy president of the National Union of Students

(NUS),www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-students-new-vote-student-union-eu-second-referendum-a8349356.html

missmoon · 23/10/2018 13:02

I would strongly support a graduate tax, plus bursaries and some sort of debt relief for existing loan holders.