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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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Peregrina · 23/10/2018 10:16

Come on now Red - that is clearly an overwhelming majority for her facing a vote of No confidence. Grin

ShinyElena · 23/10/2018 10:25

Most older people are funny about young people being heard or seen. I got plenty of snide comments for DS (10) having a say in which secondary school we apply for. It is his future FFS.

Violetparis · 23/10/2018 10:27

I take your points on children having a view on the EU but it wasn't them posting the pictures. I don't particularly like seeing photos of children in hospital on social media anyway. Did see photos of very young children with signs saying 'We're fucked' or words to that effect which imo is an awful look.

ShinyElena · 23/10/2018 10:50

Violet IKWYM I do not put anything about my DS on social media, but we are all different.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 10:56

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Today's #WaughZone is in your inbox folks. One source tells me the 48 letters threshold, needed for a vote of confidence in Theresa May, has been passed. Only Sir Graham Brady knows for sure.

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
This source is basically saying Graham Brady is being dishonest and failing in his duty. Anyone who knows Sir Graham will dismiss the thought. Also, how does the source know?

In other news:

BBC Parliament @BBCParliament
On Thursday, MEPs will vote on a draft report saying Facebook breached EU law in Cambridge Analytica data scandal. More on report here: Link to bbc live feed which says

On Thursday MEPs will vote on a draft report which says that Facebook breached EU law in the scandal through its role as a data controller.

The motion calls for all online platforms to “ensure full compliance” with the EU new GDPR privacy rules.

This should mean that users have to consent specifically to their data being used for different purposes, the draft says.

It also calls on Facebook to extend its new transparency measures for political adverts in the United States to countries in the EU.

In addition, it urges a ban on profiling socio-economic or demographic data online for political or electoral purposes.

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KennDodd · 23/10/2018 10:57

I hope that child had the EU flag over them the whole time in hospital. It must be a terrible time for all the EU nationals working at GOS so seeing little things like this must give them some comfort that we don't all want them gone. I've heard EU nationals working in the NHS and care have had loads of grief from patients since the referendum, I don't blame them for leaving, if I was them I'd leave the country as well.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 10:59

The Corbyn Youthquake...

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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KennDodd · 23/10/2018 11:07

I wonder if Corbyn became anti Brexit would those numbers pick up? I think a problem the Labour party have is many many of their voters support leave. Not many people have changed their minds despite all the evidence of economic damage because this was never about the economy for most people, it was only about immigration.

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 11:09

"Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minster" is not the same as "who would you vote for if there were an election tomorrow".

#Justsayin'

Violetparis · 23/10/2018 11:13

I don't think the numbers would pick up if Corbyn was anti brexit. From that chart it looks like a direct swap from Corbyn to May. I think the majority of those exasperated by Corbyn's brexit stance have ditched their support for him already.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 11:17

Kenn There was a recent YouGov poll saying that Labour voters had changed from being 2:1 in favour of Remain to being 3:1 in favour

Their membership is about 70% in favour

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 11:19

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 11:20

imo, voting is still tribal in the sense of party
Hardly any Remain Tories would vote Labour, especially with Corbyn in charge
Ditto, most Labour voters would stick with him, whatever Brexit policy he chose

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 11:21

There was a recent YouGov poll saying that Labour voters had changed from being 2:1 in favour of Remain to being 3:1 in favour

The petition I linked to yesterday had a few people trying to comment that Labour supporters were 100% Leavers ...

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 11:22

We are not a typical cross-section of the public, as very few are paying much attention to Brexit
Certainly very few know the various consequences & details

That would only change, if at all, if the UK economy and international travel go off the cliff

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 11:24

DGRossetti no its not.

But whats shown in that graph would effect the reach and effectiveness of online campaigning and voter turnout out.

The Labour Party did so well in the GE off the back of both.

And that would tie in with the most recent polling from a variety of pollsters which have seen the Tories holding a lead despite the Brexit clusterfuck.

This will also embolden parts of the Labour party to push harder in a pro-Remain direction too.

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KennDodd · 23/10/2018 11:27

That would only change, if at all, if the UK economy and international travel go off the cliff

I agree, most people run away screaming, ears covered, at the mention of the B word. By the time we get to the situation above it'll be too late.

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 11:28

Ditto, most Labour voters would stick with him, whatever Brexit policy he chose

Shame the same couldn't be said of Labour MPs ...

WorriedMutha · 23/10/2018 11:32

@lauraKuenssberg
48 letter threshold has NOT been reached yet I m told - for now

Violetparis · 23/10/2018 11:36

Motheroffourdragons I do get what you are saying but I think most people are bored with brexit and want someone to just get on with it. I also think the lack of a major surge in support for the Lib Dems highlights this. I understand our voting system doesn't help the Lib Dems but I did expect the polls to show an increase in support for them as an anti brexit protest vote and this doesn't appear to be happening.

Violetparis · 23/10/2018 11:39

Were there lots of 18-24 year olds on the march ?

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 23/10/2018 11:40

I agree with motherofdragons regarding Corbyn and the Labour Party.

I’ve never voted Labour before, I’m really not enamoured with the current Labour Party. But if they actually opposed Brexit I would vote for them in a heart beat.

I’m not surprised young people are becoming less interested in Corbyn. What’s he done this year? Except fail to deal appropriately with anti Semitisim in the Labour Party?

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 11:41

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

DGRossetti · 23/10/2018 11:43

I also think the lack of a major surge in support for the Lib Dems highlights this.

Or it just shows that people don't really know what the LibDems stand for ? Not sure if it's got it's own name, but a corollary to Hanlons Razor is to never attribute to action what can be explained by ignorance. And if it hasn't a name, then I think Dantes definition fits well Grin ...

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 11:49

The danger for Corbyn is he was last years fashion accessory.

Labour centring their political future on that, rather than wider principles and policies is problematic if Corbynism is regarded as a fad rather than a long term thing.

Older voters still see Corbyn as a problem.

At some point rather than being an asset, Corbyn becomes a real handicap and this has implications.

It was mentioned last summer: was it 'peak Corbyn'?

There are plenty who won't see it like this within the party, but it is important to political dynamics.

Popularism is only as potent as the forces behind it. The Tory Party have potential gains to make here if they smell something they can capitalise on here.

It's not just about how people vote. It's motivating them to vote in the first place. Voter demoralisation was a huge factor in Trump's election.

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