Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

I'm increasingly thinking EEA / EFTA is the best option for the UK (not that that will happen), better than full EU membership. The way I see it our 'say' in the EU is more damaging to our own interests than having no say would be. Our MEPs especially UKip are just trouble makers and don't deserve a seat because they work against us, doing their best to harm the UK to prove some sort of anti EU point and not for us.

It would be richly ironic if the Brexit process rendered the UK subject to EU laws and regs, without any say in them. I would much rather have that as an outcome than a "sovereign" UK ripping up everything decent in the name of a quick buck.

In this case, better to serve in Heaven than rule in Hell (Brexiteers might want to ask a grown up where that comes from ...)

Pity. Ouch.

Bollocks I read gifts of headless chickens and thought it mean and rather extreme of your Swedish friends. Then I worried about the packaging and what happened to the heads. Then I re read your post.

I am fairly sure the EU won't want us as a member until public attitudes have changed from the transactional to the aspirational for Europe,
e.g. to stop whingeing about paying more in - for poorer countries - than we get out

So, they would prefer us in EEA / EFTA ++ and then maybe in 20 years time, if opinions & generations have totally changed, apply via Article 49 to rejoin.

Of course, the UK might not be such a catch in 20 years time, unless we do end up eventually in EEA / EFTA ++

Even if the WA specifies Canada ++ or a CU, the EU would probably be quite happy to allow the UK during the transition period - maybe under a new government - to negotiate EEA / EFTA ++ instead

Born Glad it's not just me - I had to do a double take and see that it was gifs 😅

If there is a WA, I would expect the transition period to be extended a few times.
20 months, or even 20 months + 1 year, is far less than almost all trade deals take

DG I'm expecting / hoping that the Uk will be in transition for about 10 years

The only reason the UK can't stay there for ever is that non-EU countries are not bound to treat the UK like it is stil an EU member, even when the EU does:

As pp have posted, even our "closest friends", i.e. the Brexiters' beloved Anglosphere - countries like Australia, NZ, US - have said they will press the UK hard for better terms than they have with the EU

I am glad that preparations for Brexit are so thorough. This is one of 5 tech papers that have popped into my inbox.
The Gov are in the throes of destroying the UK economy and they are messing about with officials allowances.!

{Department for Exiting the European Union: senior officials' hospitality, meetings and travel, April to June 2018}

Nothing new in this article really but a pithy summary of something that has affected my oldest DD directly today.

Today DDs hardworking boyfriend who was on a 5 year Masters degree in aeronautical engineering has just been told by the university it's now a 4 year course with no year in industry.

Probably because there isn't going to be an industry here. Thank you for that Cameron, Brexiteers, xenophobes and all. Thanks a lot.

"Only a few days after Airbus announced it may be leaving Britain, the country’s top diplomat delivered one of his more undiplomatic remarks: “Fuck business....

Leading the exodus of jobs and cash are London’s many investment banks and asset management funds, such as those above, which are expected to send 10,000 jobs and billions of dollars in annual tax revenue overseas. Not far behind the financial services sector is the manufacturing sector, as one recent report shows a second consecutive month of staff cuts in factories across Britain. The technology industry, too, is feeling the pain of Brexit, as founders leave a United Kingdom that has lost its grip on foreign talent and capital. Perhaps the most disconcerting of all is the potential damage to the food services industry, whose farms and processing plantslargely of dairy, eggs, fish, and cerealsrely on a 40 percent EU-born workforce.

But Britain’s job losses are not just about Brexit. While the decision to leave the single market, resurrect tariffs with trade partners, and boot foreign workers has certainly left the U.K. a less desirable place to do business, much of the movement out of the U.K. has been a matter of pro-business reform and repositioning by EU competitors. The biggest winners of BrexitDublin, Frankfurt, and Parishave proved to be at least as effective at pulling business in as the Brexiteers have been at pushing business out."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/17/britain-isnt-just-losing-brexit-europe-is-winning-it/

Deletions were unintentional.

The most serious issue with May's preferred NI backstop - the whole UK staying in a single EU customs territory - is that this requires an EU treaty change,

which could not be done in the available time

Also, it would require the consent of all countries, who might not be prepared to go through this process,
because some of them might have to have referenda to approve any EU treaty change

Robert Peston@Peston

This is the PM’s biggest Brexit problem.
EU leaders cannot be confident she can deliver any deal they negotiate with her

• as her backbench colleague @andreajenkyns explains.

scooby thank you for sharing mp update even though they haven't said anything yet it's nice to know they will respond to you - hopefully!

Guess who is still being ignored by her MP 're meds and brexit? MEEEEeee.

Guess who is likely to increase their medications by March next year from 20 tabs a day to nearing/over 30? My lovely DP!

Guess who is pulling their hair out? MEEEeee.

You lot better march good in a few days

RE flu jab: get it if you can. The kids nasal spray vac contains a live (and safe) virus so they need to avoid immune suppressed/problematic (my DP) indivduals for a few days post vac. Every lil'un is much happier having somehing up nose then a jab! Herd protection is valuable for those who arent allowed to be vaccinated so again go get all the vac's you can.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Why would the PM appear to commit near political suicide by flaunting a transition extension? Because, I'm told, she thinks it may be the only way to re-engage Barnier. Appears No10 are now v worried that EU27 are close to pulling the plug entirely, and ready to go for no deal.

Mark Wallace @wallaceme (of ConHome)
All the promises and rants about how Chequers, without any further concessions, would “unlock” the talks have turned out to be rubbish. As predicted, it’s only served as an invitation to demand more and more.

𝚁𝚊𝚟 𝚅𝚊𝚍𝚐𝚊𝚖𝚊 @TVRav
Chatted with two MEPs this morning - German and Belgian. Both say the mood has changed from sympathy to anger with 'weak UK govt'. One said 'there will be two men who benefit financially from #brexit, and 65 million who will pay for it'. 🎥 #BehindTheScenes @gmb

Dave Keating @DaveKeating
Angela Merkel tells journalists after #EUCO: “Each and everyone ought to prepare for a no-deal #Brexit scenario. But we didn’t want to discuss this in detail yesterday, because we didn’t want to give the impression that we were dealing with this primarily”. – at European Council - Council of the European Union

Sam McBride @SJAMcBride
Some thoughts on a law (t.co/YDPfcS74JU) being rushed through Parliament to let NI civil servants act as quasi-ministers. If you live in NI, this is about how you're governed. If you're in GB, you should care about it because it involves spending billions of your taxes...

This has profound constitutional and democratic implications, involving Parliament (presumably an empty chamber nodding it through because it's NI legislation) explicitly allowing civil servants to take ministerial decisions - with no democratic oversight.

The bill will retrospectively legalise something which Northern Ireland's highest court (in Buick) found was unlawful (servants taking decisions which ought to be for ministers) & which civil servants accepted by not appealing to the Supreme Court. But it won't overturn Buick.

The NIO has been working on this for months, yet chose not to consult the public or even publish the proposed legislation until today - a week before the Secretary of State wants this to become law under fast-track Parliamentary procedure which reduces scrutiny.

In the Buick case, a Northern Ireland Court of Appeal judge described the position now proposed by the Government - that civil servants can take some ministerial decisions - as "a radical & anti-democratic departure from the constitutional norms which apply elsewhere in the UK".

As drafted, the legislation implies that if you are planning to legally challenge anything civil servants have decided in NI since the departure of ministers 18 months ago then you have a week to do so. But if the court finds for you, then officials can just re-take the decision.

The bill also not only removes the legal requirement for an election to be called in circumstances where it is clear a Stormont Executive cannot be formed - it retrospectively (presumably with an eye to the judicial review by abuse survivors on that point) makes that the law.

Remember the incestious ties that the DUP have with senior civil servants...

Great policy this one, which is totally workable and enforceable.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/18/millions-of-porn-videos-will-not-blocked-uk-online-age-checks
Millions of porn videos will not be blocked by UK online age checks

Clause means children will be able to view content on social media and image-sharing sites

Jim Waterson @jimwaterson
The government's new age verification system for porn sites won't apply if a site's content is less than a third pornographic. So all the porn sites need to do is upload millions of hours of videos of old Tory party conference speeches and dilute the smut.

Farage on Sky News was trying to suggest that A50 should be suspended (his choice of word) for a few months so that the UK could have more time to negotiate confused and that that would then allow the UK to participate in the next EU elections. hmm

Really, he wants more of the gravy train. The man is a buffoon.

Thread in chat from someone looking for sign ideas for the march

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3398090-Help-me-with-a-protest-sign-for-the-Peoples-Vote-march?watched=1&msgid=81899405#81899405

Millions of porn videos will not be blocked by UK online age checks

But I guess anti-Brexit propaganda will be

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Finally, some support for the PM on extending transition. Tory MP Simon Hart, who leads the 80-strong Brexit Delivery Group:

Brexit Delivery Group???
Have we come across this faction before?

Brexit Delivery Group???

Sounds a bit madey uppy to me. Either that, or a firm of really crap couriers.

{Either that, or a firm of really crap couriers.}
No it's the courier companies taking the 'big money' OUT of the UK for clients like Redwood and Mogg, so it can be stored safely until after Brexit day.
As an observation, any further delays would simply seal the resolve of the bigger companies departing the UK, they can't mess around waiting for hell to freeze over.

As an observation, any further delays would simply seal the resolve of the bigger companies departing the UK, they can't mess around waiting for hell to freeze over.

The cynic in me wonders if the reason for an extension is because not all the golden children have managed to get their shit out of the UK yet .

I try to find amusement where I can but Lonely’s post about her daughter’s boyfriend’s lost year in the aeronautical industry has reminded me that there is nothing funny at all about this debacle. I’m having to work very hard to suppress my anger at those who let this happen and those who continue to wilfully fail to recognise how bad it is. Let alone those who are perfectly aware of the consequences but are happy because they themselves will benefit, Rees Mogg for instance.

The young people I teach have faith in the future. They believe that if they work hard enough, they will be rewarded. Mostly what they want is a steady and reasonably fulfilling job, a home and a family - not anything extraordinary. God knows I hope the next few years won’t see them all out of jobs and struggling to keep body and soul together.

The cynic in me thought the same DG

The young people I teach have faith in the future. They believe that if they work hard enough, they will be rewarded.

Since when has that ever been true in the UK ? I would have thought on this very website, people would know what a crock that is.