A friend managed to go to the Glasgow "Brexit Summit" last week.
His summary of it was:
General conclusion:
1. Soft Brexit = we’re fucked!
2. Candadian-style Brexit (ie, FTA) = we’re totally fucked!
3. Hard Brexit = we’re completely and totally fucked!anyway 
- but we knew that on these threads
Notes from the summit
Sir Anton Muscatelli (Principal of Glasgow Uni and one of the UK's top economists)
Brexit: No deal or blind deal – the economic consequences
From the Scottish Government stats (“Scotland’s Place in Europe: people, Jobs and Investment”):
- 2.7% GDP fall in the least-worst option (out of EU but still in single market)
- 6.1% GDP fall under the Canada option (preferential FTA with EU)
- 8.5% to 9% GDP fall under WTO terms – (no deal)
180,000 EU nationals were resident in Scotland in 2015
Project Fear now Project Fact
Chequers is dead
Can't separate services from finance
Continued membership of EEA is essential
A Blind Brexit (leaving the EU without knowing where we are going) is now possible
Lord John Kerr (guy who wrote A50) –
Article 50: Have we burnt our boats?
- "Notification of intention" to withdraw is not compulsory. It is voluntary. We haven't left (yet). The EU wants us back.
- Difficult to negotiate when you have already set the red lines before you even start: no freedom of movement, no customs union, etc.
- The only way to stay is by a second referendum.
- The People's Vote: now 45% to 35% in favour. 54% to 46% now want to remain. 66% to 34% in Scotland want to remain.
- Chequers agreement is dead.
- There is a risk that the UK could become an "Off-shore aircraft carrier" (low taxes, low regulation, etc).
- No Deal = no treaty = no transition period = immediate disruption.
- Open border Irish policy unlikely to be accepted by the DUP.
- If not a second referendum, there would need to be a general election.
- Both will require an extension of the negotiating period.
- There is/was a virtuous circle with UK influencing EU policy on behalf of USA and the rest of the world.
- We are part of Europe and we should remain in Europe.
Kirsty Hughes ( Director at Scottish Centre on European Relations
“Brexit: deal, no deal or no Brexit – will uncertainty end this autumn?”
-Uncertainty, more uncertainty and even more uncertainty!
-Any Brexit will be very damaging.
-May is likely to get a deal.
-A fudged agreement?
-A "blind Brexit"? Either a dressed-up Canada or a camouflaged borders agreement.
-If there is a deal, no second referendum or general election.
-If no deal, probably a general election and/or possibly a People's Vote.
-We are likely to know one way or another by the middle of December.
Prof Graeme Roy Director at the Fraser Allander Institute at Strathclyde Uni (was economic adviser to the ScotGov and head of the FM's Policy Unit)
“The economics of Brexit and why Glasgow needs to prepare”
(His presentation is in the link)
-Economic outlook uncertain.
-Likely to be some time before we know what is going to happen.
-Preparation is uncertain.
• exports
• supply chains, including imports
• international investment
• The labour market (including EU workers and students)
• The policy and regulatory environment
• short-term uncertainty
- Scotland exports more to EU than the rest of the world combined.
- Contingency planning required by all businesses, etc, to cover:
• imports and exports
• supply chain
• labour market
• regulation
• international investment
• uncertainties
Mike Russell - ScotGov Brexit Minister -
Brexit
-A very, very worrying position
-Economic sabotage
-Possible options include:
• Pausing s50 - unlikely
• The People's Vote
• The softest of Brexits
- Regulation
- Money
- People
- 75% of EU Nationals living in Scotland won't qualify to stay under the new immigration rules.
- No Deal rapidly becoming the most likely because it is being normalised.
- Distance is the key to trade.
- India? - trade v migration
- Migration: law and sentiment.
- NI - double backstop?
www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20181002/Brexit_and_the_Glasgow_City_Region.pdf