Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

Chaos brings opportunity. There are some at the top that will be making a pretty penny from the miniseries of others as all of this plays out.

GD12,

I thought businesses were the backbone of the economy. If they are afraid to say anything about this impending doom, well where does that leave the ordinary Joe/Josephine in all this.

Weird.

@Banamara it leaves us f***. Which is what we are.

GD12,

It is all so weird and frightening for me as an ordinary person. I agree with you.

But what can we do? Seems like there is some force out there gunning for this. And none of it will benefit the majority of people.

Still baffled at the lack of momentum from businesses. But I am sure they have been muzzled or are listening to their PR gurus or something.

The rest of us have absolutely no voice anymore. Do we?

@Banamara It feels like we're in the back of a car with someone else driving heading for a 100mph crash. I genuinely fear for myself and 8 month old in 6 months time.

Yes, it is our children's future that may be compromised. So sad to have parents (and everyone else affected) so concerned about this, when it is so unnecessary really.

Evening, all. I'm working away tonight in East Anglia and on my way out of the train station saw people leafleting for the march on Saturday. I saw quite a few people going out of their way to take leaflets, too!

Going a bit earlier in the threat, I had to laugh at this:

So although it's by no means frictionless trade it seems that not being part of the SM hasn't done Turkish vehicle manufacturing any harm.

So, during the referendum British voters were convinced that Turkey was about to join the EU and flood the UK with poor, impoverished Turks.

Now that we're leaving, Turkey's low worker pay is something to aspire to when we're outside the EU.

Honestly, it's like every day I learn something new & surprising about what The People were Willing on that fateful day.

Blame Trump and the Russians. It's the only way to make any sense out of this Brexit clusterfk.

There are nefarious entities out there. We don't know about them but others are dead now in Salisbury for example. Guess that was just a message though, with due regard for the deceased.

Please, don't blame me for saying this. Anything is possible.

@Banamara - if you want to do something, can I suggest you look at prepping like I and others do. You don't have to go all out mad camouflage tin foil hat brigade. It can be more about "homesteading " if you prefer the term. Just building a bit of resilience in your food stores and in keeping you and yours warm and clean if, for a short while, it goes a bit nuts outside as people go mad for food at the supermarket or it starts kicking off a bit.
I'm certain it will calm down to a more expensive grumbling and I fully accept trouble may be avoided or more time is bought by the government with a cobbled together deal.
However, if you have a bit of a buffer at home you might feel better.
The Prepper topic has loads of ideas from sensible posters. Lurk about on there.

@bellinisurge I agree, I'll be stockpiling a month or two of basics, tinned food etc.

@bellinisurge

Thank you so much for taking the time to calm me down.

I listen and watch all that is going on, but nothing is helping to reassure me.

I have a stash, mostly of meds for everyone that might need them, and non perishables. I felt so ridiculous building that up. But whatever, if not needed, it will be used anyway.

It is an awful vista. But hopefully will not come to that. I live in hope!

I thought I'd posted this earlier in response to Fishes' Turkey car manufacturing post but it doesn't seem to have posted.

This article about Turkey suggests it would fit right into the ERG's agenda

https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/automotive-automobile-production-in-turkey-reaches-record-highs

Extract....
However, labour regulations, in particular safety standards, are low in Turkey and safety regulations are not always respected or evenly enforced. Workplace incidents are not uncommon; a Turkish NGO reported 2,006 workplace deaths across sectors in 2017, presenting potentially significant reputational risks for companies doing business in Turkey.

Agree with BigChocFrenzy that those (parts of) cars that are made in Turkey are not integral to the JIT process and would increase costs through delays in the supply chain. They're also a small proportion of the total cars made within Europe.

I thought I'd posted this earlier in response to Fishes' Turkey car manufacturing post but it doesn't seem to have posted.

This article about Turkey suggests it would fit right into the ERG's agenda

https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/automotive-automobile-production-in-turkey-reaches-record-highs

Extract....
However, labour regulations, in particular safety standards, are low in Turkey and safety regulations are not always respected or evenly enforced. Workplace incidents are not uncommon; a Turkish NGO reported 2,006 workplace deaths across sectors in 2017, presenting potentially significant reputational risks for companies doing business in Turkey.

Agree with BigChocFrenzy that those (parts of) cars that are made in Turkey are not integral to the JIT process and would increase costs through delays in the supply chain. They're also a small proportion of the total cars made within Europe.

Just found this amusing...

Delurking.

to everyone on Westminstenders, especially RTB. I posted on some of the earlier threads after the referendum and have been an avid lurker since then. These threads are my one stop shop for updates on Brexit and have taught me so, so much though they are probably not great for my blood pressure.

It feels like we are coming full circle from the despondency felt just after the referendum to the realisation that a 'hard' Brexit now seems unavoidable. Well, I guess Brexit means Brexit as TM said in 2016.

Thanks to all the regular posters for your well informed and passionate posts, Westminstenders has been the best thing about Brexit. emotional Remainer

It would be really interesting to know how many people lurke on these threads (if any, most people hate politics) . I'm sure MN have a click count, is it made public anywhere?

You made me feel weepy. WoodenCupCake

Never thought it was a coincidence that May went to Turkey so soon after brexit. Erdogan is simply a terror, and the Turks are living in terror.
Greece is even humanely providing refuge for escaping Turks.

Transcript of the Commons today if anyone is interested.

hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-10-15/debates/7F3BE0D6-D631-4A22-BA71-CB924A564DA1/EUExitNegotiations

What has happened is that the DUP are on notice that they have a bitter pill to swallow. They will not swallow that pill. They have never been bluffing.

So I anticipate they will do their utmost to engineer the deposition of Theresa May between now and November, and to replace her with someone far more congenial to their aim of destroying the GFA.

The most likely suspect imo is Leadsom, with her close ties to the American Tea Party/ fundamentalist Christian politics, with Steve Baker (also a religious fundamentalist) and Gove the brains of the operation in the background.

The only way out of this for May is to face down the DUP by calling a GE.

BBC News just did a Vox Pox item on attitudes towards Brexit with a group in Swansea.

They finished by exiting through a choice of door: one representing being Optimistic about the future and the other Pessimistic . 5 went out one door and 5 went out the other.

It made me think about which door I would choose and is honestly don't know. I am profoundly pessimistic about the future for rUK (or as I now call it FUKD - Formerly United Kingdom and its Dependencies) but I am optimistic about the future for Scotland. I believe that this will bring forward the timescale for Scottish Independence.

But as I have said before, I'd rather it took longer and didn't involve the damage to the economy and the brunt falling on the poorest and most vulnerable in England So my preference is for A50 to be rescinded or, failing that (as Nicola said today) continued membership of the CU and SM (aka BINO).

They should have had a trapdoor.

Fifteen MPs came out for a Peoples' Vote today:

twitter.com/emcmillanscott/status/1051871402150809600

Talking economics, this links to the report by the Scottish Growth Commission, which was commissioned by Nicola Sturgeon to create a vision and framework for the economy of an independent Scotland strange concept that, trying to plan for the future

https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report/

I was at a talk tonight by Jim Mather (who was on the working party). It was very interesting - my homework is to go away and read the 354 page report (There is a summary report )

My notes include

• UK one of the most unequal Western countries and the inequality is growing
• Wealth concentrated in London and SE but Scotland is the strongest of the rest of the UK "regions", close to the UK average
• Scottish Growth Commission took learning from all 12 similarly sized countries but especially Denmark, Finland and NZ
• Promoting/encouraging "discretionary learning jobs" which will help reduce inequality and increase growth for all (need to go away and read more about this)
• Economy based on probity and prudence regarding Public Finance

• But also a strong focus on inter-generational equity (ie it's not healthy for the economy if the rich and old keep on getting richer - whatever the JRMs of this world might think )

He gave a few stats of fiscal objectives but I didn't jot them down. They'll be in the summary report.