Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

I agree@HalfStar . That is facile and ignorant.
Which is pretty much the currency right now.

GD12. I wasn't suggesting I disagreed, just that given the chaos Labour should have a huge poll lead. But they haven't and these are not normal times. So I wouldn't feel confident saying there won't be another Tory govt in my lifetime, and given I voted in the 1975 referendum my lifetime is a likely to be a lot shorter than most.

It's much more likely there will be a realignment of political parties in the same way as there was after the repeal of the Corn Laws.

At what point, constitutionally speaking, would the queen get involved? Does she have a duty to step in and prevent civil war or something? I know she stays completely neutral but as head of state surely there must be a point at which she says something, or does she literally do nothing at any point until being evacuated in her private helicopter to the South of France or somewhere?

What is to say she isn't already ? Bear in mind Theresa May has to spend an hour a week briefing the Queen on everything. These briefings are never minuted, and the Queens reaction and comments are never aired. I've already suspected Theresa May is getting some pretty solid advice from somewhere at times - it might explain her odder decisions.

I image the Queen/Crown would be forced to become less passive if/when the integrity of the Union is mentioned. Much as the Tories won't mention it, it's worth reminding everyone that The Queen of England and Wales is also the Queen of Scotland. She doesn't rule Scotland because she rules England. She rules Scotland because she rules Scotland.

All of which would make for an interesting constitutional debate were the Scottish parliament to attempt to open a direct dialogue with their Monarch.

Preserving the Union appears somewhere in the coronation oath - and it's a universally acknowledged fact that HMQ takes that oath deathly seriously.

Moving away, I can't see the Queen being overjoyed at being dragged into a debate over the future of the Union as a result of "her governments" moronic bungling. I notice talk of Prince Phillip upthread. I suspect if he were allowed, he would have some very choice words about the tsunami of incompetence currently being paraded around the worlds press.

@SusanWalker - the Queen's constitutional role is to ask the head of a political party to form a government. She has that done for her usually by the head of the party with the most seats in the House of Commons. If they don't have a majority but can form a voting bloc that will secure a majority vote in the House of Commons, they become Prime Minister. If they haven't got a majority and can't get a voting bloc, the leader of the next largest party tries to form a majority voting bloc in Parliament and they become Prime Minister. If absolutely no party can form a majority voting bloc we have another general election.
The majority voting bloc means the Prime Minister can always win any vote of no-confidence.
The Queen will move heaven and earth to stay out of it. She's pretty good at that.

Seems the Tories can get away with anything. If Scotland leaves, it will become much harder for them to lose an election. England will be in even worse trouble.

Happy to see Ireland United and Scotland independent. Unbelievably facile

Happy is probably the wrong word. But they were not vehemently against this as I was. It was more 'maybe it's time'.

As I said, these were long uncomfortable conversations but I have respect for them, they are not ill informed and they were considerate to my POV. But I was also reminded of when I argued with my parents and their generation about how they were clinging to the past and ignoring the need for change. Now the generational tables are turned. They wouldn't have chosen this path but they are now keen to get on with it and make the best of a bad job. All Labour supporters btw.

I'll still be marching on Saturday because I can't live with myself if I don't do what I can to protest about the madness of what is happening.

I'm feeling increasingly like Canute trying to hold back the tide, though.

GD12 So worrying for you and your colleagues.
I really hope your firm doesn't need to make redundancies

imo, even if there is a no deal, it'll be such a shock to the economy that the govt will very quickly cave in and sign a post-Brexit agreement - maybe on worse terms for the UK though ! -
so that most people just have a few tough weeks before the economy resumes a more gradual decline

I'm not so sure if the mess will keep the Tories out of power for long - if at all - since they have been averaging slightly ahead of Labour for most of the time since the 2017 GE
Even though polls also show a big majority of the public think the govt is handling Brexit v badly

As our US friends say, "Go figure" 

The Queen can't take sides, especially when the country is still quite evenly divided over Brexit
and the Leavers are still pretty fanatical about it.

Her job is only to ask the leaders of political parties if they can form a govt
and also to step in if a govt tries to e.g. unliaaterally extend its term in office, or arrest its opponents - and the Tory party are still thankfully very far off that territory

The Queen can't take sides, especially when the country is still quite evenly divided over Brexit

Which country ? She rules two.

On the plus side, unless there are any rocks I've missed, Brexiteers have gone terribly quiet.

@DGRossetti - the Queen absolutely has to stay out of it. And she will, I am certain.
This is the PM and Parliament's job. And if the PM and Parliament can't sort it, it needs another General Election.

@Gumpendorf Fair point. Perhaps it would be better to say that the charlatans we have in government today will be finished.

Did anyone hear Mogg on LBC this morning? "there will be transitional issues but only until we sign a deal with the EU after Brexit". It'll take years and years to do a trade deal with the EU. What a charlatan.

@DGRossetti - the Queen absolutely has to stay out of it. And she will, I am certain. This is the PM and Parliament's job. And if the PM and Parliament can't sort it, it needs another General Election.

So being Queen of England means she has to stop being Queen of Scotland

In any other situation, I'd agree with you. But we are starting to see Scotland - and her subjects - diverging from the Union. It's probably not going to improve matters anytime soon, if the Queen of Scotland says to her Scottish subjects that they have to toe the Westminster line

I'll caveat that all by saying I am not Scottish, so am more than happy to revise my thinking if any Scottish MNetters can shine a light on what they feel ?

gumpendorf fair play to you for marching.

do your relatives not really understand the significance of the DUP's role in this overall picture right now though when they talk about feeling resigned to a (re)united ireland?

I think that is actually the major major problem here.

In other news did I hear that TM is meeting Sinn Fein representatives?

The Parliament is the UK Parliament. The PM is PM of the UK.
She tentatively and allegedly made noise about how the miners were being treated during the miners' strike and what the police were being asked to do.
If this UK Parliament cannot sort it out and this UK Prime Minister can't sort it, it needs a new GE not the Queen's intervention. We have enough constitutional shit flying around and she is sensible enough not to add to it.

Just to add to the fin de siecle mood, I see Sears in the US have been inspired by UK retailing ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45859722

Hasn't the EU invested a lot in flood defences across Europe ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45858700

Communities are surveying the damage as the clean-up continues following the worst flooding for 30 years in parts of Wales.

Many rivers burst their banks during Storm Callum, prompting Natural Resources Wales to pledge a review of flood defences.

(contd).

DG She is not telling anyone to toe the line, either
She's staying schtumm, in public anyway

I wonder if she has been asking some very worried questions at her meetings with May 

She must realise that this Brexshit is likely to accelerate Irish unity and possibly even cause Scotland to leave the UK
According to SNP policy, she would remain Queen of Scotland in that event, but separately to being Queen of rUK

do your relatives not really understand the significance of the DUP's role in this overall picture right now though when they talk about feeling resigned to a (re)united ireland?

I think that is actually the major major problem here.

Halfstar I agree. Tbf they don't understand the Irish question period. And they will admit that. I've explained it exhaustively over the last few months but they have no experience of or real life understanding of the problems. And I think they share that with most of the rest of the UK and the political parties. It's history, the GFA was years ago. Maybe time for a rethink.

It blows my mind, but the point I was trying to make in summarising my conversations was these are not isolated views or the views of the politically uninformed, and increasingly they may even be the prevailing views.

Happy suggestion:

Wales and England could become a new country:
Great Wangland,
where the inhabitants are called Great Wangers 😂

.

I do have a soft spot for Anna Soubry. That’s my dream come true, the Tories admit its all been a massive cock up and that Brexit was miss sold.

Delurking to post this clip - Andrew Bridgen, a prominent Brexiteer MP, (I don't know why I am still shocked that an MP could be this ignorant, but I am), thinks that the Common Travel Area means that English people are entitled to Irish passports

twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1051624600600289281