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Brexit

Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2018 23:16

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

OP posts:
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prettybird · 13/10/2018 10:13

Durgha - dh doesn't necessarily agree with all SNP policies (he's not as left wing as me) but he has vowed to continue to vote SNP as a means to an end until they achieve their objective: independence. Up until 1997, he used to spoil his vote with "None of the above" as he thought all politicians were shysters. And then Nicola doorstepped us Shock. She spent 45 minutes in the close (refused to come in) arguing very respectfully with dh.

I've never encountered right wing SNP members/voters - only disillusioned former Labour members/voters, so get no sense of them being "Tartan Tories".

I would fully expect that once Scotland achieves her independence, the SNP may well fracture as its original raison d'être dissipates. A smaller part of it will continue as a left of centre party and the Labour Party can re-invent itself as a Scottish Party (rather than a "Branch Office" Wink) (Might even consider voting for them again if they do that). The Comservatives could even regroup as "One Nation" Tories (the nation not being the Union, but looking after all the people in Scotland, not just the rich). The LibDems and Greens also have more of a chance given our PR boring system.

I can dream Smile

durgha · 13/10/2018 10:19

Me too, prettybird.Wink

PCPlumsTruncheon · 13/10/2018 10:34

pretty I will always remember Rodney Bickertaffe* giving a speech at the TUC conference back in Thatcher’s day.
He said, ‘Why is it that under Thatcher and Tebbit and Fowler, the way to make the rich work harder is to give them more money and the way to make the poor work harder is to give them LESS money?’
Nothing has changed Angry

prettybird · 13/10/2018 10:44

PCPlums - things have changed. They've got worse Sad

The Government now proudly celebrates its austerity policies and talks about the growth of Food Banks as something to celebrate ShockSad

AngryAngryAngry

And Brexit is going to make it all even worse - even under the "best" Hmm of the Government's own scenarios ConfusedSad

woman11017 · 13/10/2018 10:44

I would fully expect that once Scotland achieves her independence
In a way it already has. There's been the Scottish cultural shift, back to type, as a forward looking European country with a social conscience. It's sort of won cultural independence. The rest is paperwork.Wink Hopefully. Smile

This is a sort of evacuation notice for businesses?:

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
No Deal notices...

UK Government advice suggests UK companies with large EU biz “consider whether they need to restructure” - eg by moving domicile/inc - for No Deal Brexit.

First time in history a UK Govt effectively suggested shifting HQs out of UK

www.gov.uk/government/publications/structuring-your-business-if-theres-no-brexit-deal--2/structuring-your-business-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

PCPlumsTruncheon · 13/10/2018 10:47

Most Tories that I know honestly have trouble believing that there are people out there who would genuinely be happy to pay more tax, even if it doesn’t directly benefit them financially and means taking home slightly less pay each month, in order to benefit society as a whole.
IME, many of them (not all) cannot get their heads round the fact that there are people with a good standard of living who own a property and have secure employment and a decent pension to look forward to (like DH and me) who rather than thinking ‘I’m all right Jack’, feel distinctly uneasy that most of the younger generation won’t enjoy these benefits and don’t feel able to happily step over homeless people every day or watch people, many of whom are working, queuing up at food banks.

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2018 10:56

Most Tories that I know honestly have trouble believing that there are people out there who would genuinely be happy to pay more tax

I know several tory voters who would have no problem paying more tax on the understanding that the NHS needs it. What they object to more is punitive tax for being hard workers and having a higher income as a result whilst they perceive others as lacking a work ethic.

I think there a fine line in there but I disagree with the idea that Tories don't want to pay more tax. It depends on what the tax is for and where the burden of tax is being placed and how heavily it falls.

OP posts:
PCPlumsTruncheon · 13/10/2018 11:06

Red I take your point. Looking at my DPs who are both staunch Tories - they are decent people on the whole but they cannot comprehend how much the world has changed.
They had no problem getting a council house while they saved to buy a house. They are from a time when there was full employment and jobs for life and when it was possible for one person working in a skilled manual job to support a family.
There was pretty much a guarantee that, if you worked hard, you would be all right.
In their minds, if you can’t afford to save a bit each month or need to use food banks, you must be feckless and/or afraid of hard work.

woman11017 · 13/10/2018 11:33

What they object to more is punitive tax for being hard workers and having a higher income

Translation: Those who are paying too little tax to fund modestly paid work of young, BME workers, women, unpaid carers for the upkeep and education of the young and of the cared for.

Uncle Ukip Syndrome: they are already a state subsidised demographic. By us.

@faisalislam
Newsworthy interview with @simoncoveney incoming on Sky News.. till then in Galway, Ireland’s extraordinary business preparedness roadshow involving €5000 grants, advice, €100 millions subsidised loans for Brexit affected business

There is nothing like this happening in U.K

So, British business has evacuation notices, British citizens are told there will be no trains out of the country and ROI has been preparing its businesses calmly.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 11:58

Govts of all the most affected E27 countries are far more advanced in Brexit planning and in providing practical advice for businesses - they even have English language versions !

German govt checklist: Are you ready for BREXIT?

With Brexit countdown days-hrs-minutes- seconds ... Currently 167 days+12 hours !
https://www.ihk.de/brexitcheck-en

Useful for smaller companies (larger ones should have been prepping since the ref)

Practical checklists for each topic, e.g. movement of goods
and each firm can customise their own list.
Far better than the pathetic UK govt notices.

From the Netherlands govt:
https://readyforbrexit.co.uk/netherland-government-websites-on-brexit/

France and Sweden have similarly useful advice

Peregrina · 13/10/2018 12:02

So does May really think she will pull something out of the bag? The best I can see is a Transition which kicks the can down the road for a couple of years.

DGRossetti · 13/10/2018 12:05

Caught a copy of the Times in Sainsburys earlier (they were out of pearl barley, so managed to keep a record of being out of stock of at least one thing on our list every week since January now. Which gets worse when I tell you our list today had 11 items on it ...)

Anyway, it seems the upcoming budget looks like being a bit of a bunfight with some Tories unhappy that Phil "the destroyer" Hammond wants to remove some tax breaks for the rich - particularly around pensions. (Here's a less paywalled version www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/12/philip-hammond-says-pensions-tax-relief-eye-wateringlyexpensive/ )

There is a bigger question here about what happens if the budget doesn't get through. Forget no confidence ... will the government be able to collect tax ?

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 12:05

May & her govt needs to decide / agree on the basic WA terms and inform the EU negotiating team by early Monfay morning:

This is when the EU civil servants do the prep - agenda, info papers for the heads of govt - for the October summit

There will be a November summit on Brexit
BUT it depends on what happens before then,
whether it is about finalising the draft October Brexit deal
... or serious prepping of the EU for no deal and informing business publicly that they need to take action

If the EU doubt that May can get the deal through the HoC, they may well do both in November

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 12:09

DG The budget is only necessary for changes.
Without one, all the current tax & spending arrangements continue as before.

Of courser, this would be a problem for the extra money needed for Brexit prepping (if the govt have decided on any) and May's promises (if she intended them this Parliament)

The UK system is not at all like the US, where Congress can shut down much of govt
ALl the HoC can do is block changes to waht we have now

DGRossetti · 13/10/2018 12:12

www.monbiot.com/2018/10/12/farmed-out/

monbiot.com
Farmed Out – George Monbiot
7-9 minutes

The government’s Agriculture Bill seeks to replace regulation with public money. Who will contest this new protection racket?

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 10th October 2018

I’m a Remainer, but there’s one result of Brexit I can’t wait to see: leaving the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. This is the farm subsidy system that spends €50 billion a year on achieving none of its objectives.

It is among the most powerful drivers of environmental destruction in the northern hemisphere. Because payments are made only for land that’s in “agricultural condition”, the system creates a perverse incentive to clear wildlife habitats, even in places unsuitable for farming, to produce the empty ground that qualifies for public money. These payments have led to the destruction of hundreds of thousands of hectares of magnificent wild places across the EU.

It is also, arguably, the most regressive transfer of public money in the modern world. Farmers are paid by the hectare for owning or using land, so the more you have, the more you get. While in the UK, benefits for the poor are capped at £20,000 (outside London), these benefits for the rich are uncapped. Some landowners receive £1 million or more. You don’t even have to live in the EU to take this money: you just have to own land here. Among the benefit tourists sucking up public funds in the age of austerity are Russian oligarchs, Saudi princes and Texas oil barons.

It is hard to discern any just principle behind an occupational qualification for receiving public money. Some farmers are poor, but seldom as poor as rural people who have no land, no buildings and no jobs. Why should one profession be supported when others are not?

Yet even farmers have been hurt by these payments. European subsidies have helped turn farmland into a speculative honeypot, making it highly attractive to City financiers. The price of land has more than doubled since payments by the hectare were introduced, pushing it out of reach of most genuine farmers. By reinforcing economies of scale, these subsidies have driven out small farmers and accelerated the consolidation of land ownership.

Though we have paid enough money to have bought all the farmland in this country several times over, we have not acquired any direct democratic control over the land: farming, however it might alter landscape features, remains outside the planning system. The system amounts to taxation without representation.

So you might have hoped that this would be a hot topic, surrounded by fierce debates about what should best replace this outrageous boondoggle. But, as the Agriculture Bill receives its second reading in the House of Commons today (Wednesday), there is scarcely a murmur of either enthusiasm or dissent from the main opposition parties.

The government’s proposals are a major improvement on the current system. It intends that farmers should be paid for protecting wildlife and ecosystems, rather than for owning land. It wants to use subsidies to improve the health of the nation’s soils, the quality of its water and the character of its landscape. It encourages collaboration between different land managers – woefully lacking in our incoherent approach to environmental protection. But there is plenty that should be challenged.

The first problem is that the government proposes to use public money as a substitute for regulation. Much of its new system amounts to payments for not mugging old ladies: rewarding people for not doing things they shouldn’t be doing anyway. Strong regulations, with proper monitoring and enforcement, would keep the soil on the land and nitrates out of the water without the need for this protection racket. Yet, even as the government proposes to splash our money around, its regulatory agencies are collapsing. Natural England, like Natural Resources Wales, is in total meltdown. A leaked document reveals that the government has abandoned even its pathetic target of protecting 50% of our sites of special scientific interest (threatened by farming, above any other industry). Nearly half have not even been inspected over the past six years. On the day Michael Gove, the environment secretary, announced his new payments plan, he also promised to find ways of reducing or removing farm inspections.

Nowhere is this replacement of rules with money more preposterous than when it is applied to farm animal welfare. The government acknowledges that welfare standards should be raised. But instead of doing so through legislation, it proposes “targeted payments” for farmers who treat their animals well. Why should animal welfare be a matter of economic choice?

Is also hard to see how its policies would defend small farmers. The European system has been a disaster for them, but will this be any better? The question is sharpened by the government’s ambition to strike a US-UK trade deal, which is likely to sacrifice farming in return for concessions on financial services. Any government of the US, which has much lower food and welfare standards, will want a deal that permits it to sell its disgusting farm products in the UK. If this happens, only the biggest and meanest farmers here will be able to compete.

The evidence from New Zealand, where all subsidies were stopped in 1984, is mixed. Since then, livestock farms have consolidated, but the number of small horticultural farms and vineyards has risen. I want to see opposition parties press the government to do two things. First, to promise that any US-UK trade deal will exclude food and agriculture altogether, even if this means no deal. Secondly, to ensure that supermarkets, which exercise monopsonistic power (too few buyers) pay a fair price to the farmers they currently exploit.

I would argue that payments for environmental goods should be reserved for those that didn’t exist before, while existing wildlife habitats are protected through regulation. I also believe that farmers should seek planning permission before changing a field boundary, ploughing a meadow or felling an orchard.

But I’m less clear about whether there should be a special support payment for small farmers, as some people argue. How would we distinguish between those who owe their living to farming and those who have bought their land as a hobby? Why should small farmers receive this money, when small builders do not?

Perhaps we need an entirely different approach. How about expanding the stock of county farms (publicly owned land), which has been steadily shrinking as a result of government cuts? Where the land is suitable, county councils could divide up their farms and offer tenancies to small farmers at below-market rates. This might be a better way of supporting genuine farmers with public money. And how about a community right to buy land, of the kind now exercised in Scotland?

I don’t have all the answers, and I doubt anyone does. But I do know that good policy depends on constant challenge and debate. And so far, there hasn’t been enough of either.

DGRossetti · 13/10/2018 12:14

Arlenes kicking off - I've highlighted the bullshit bit.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45849188

bbc.co.uk
Arlene Foster warns Theresa May over 'dodgy' Brexit deal
By John Campbell BBC News NI Economics & Business Editor

The DUP leader has warned the prime minister not to accept a 'dodgy' Brexit deal she will later regret.

Arlene Foster has drawn an explicit parallel with the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement.

The agreement, signed by Margaret Thatcher, gave the Irish government a formal consultative role in Northern Ireland.

Mrs Foster said Mrs Thatcher "later deeply regretted the choice she had made."

The Anglo-Irish Agreement is seen by many historians as a development which helped lead to the peace process.

At the time it faced huge, sometimes violent, opposition from unionists and loyalists in Northern Ireland.

Writing in the Belfast Telegraph the DUP leader says: "We do not want or need the regrets of another prime minister.

"We want her to stand by her principles and instincts rather than accepting a dodgy deal foisted on her by others."
'One nation'

The article essentially restates the DUP opposition to any Brexit backstop arrangement which would see Northern Ireland remaining in the EU's single market while the rest of the UK leaves.

That would necessitate product standard checks on some goods coming into Northern Ireland from elsewhere in the UK.

Mrs Foster says: "Such a barrier cuts right to the heart of what is at stake here.

"The UK is one nation. There should not be international-style borders within it."

Mrs Foster's comments come at a critical stage in the Brexit negotiations.

Mrs Foster previously said that the prime minister could not "in good conscience" recommend a Brexit deal that places a trade barrier on businesses moving goods from one part of the UK to another.

Theresa May relies on DUP support in key votes because she does not have a majority in the House of Commons.

The DUP has said it could vote down the government's Budget later this month.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 12:22

Peregrian Any trade deal will be long after May has retired; her task is only to get a WA and complete Brexit

Once we have a WA, that would have settled the 3 main exit issues of NI, expats, the bill
So there wouldn't be a roadblock to negotiating any deal the govt of the day chooses

Transition means we don't fall of the cliff edge without flights, ferries, JIT etc - a big improvement on no deal

The WA will probably outline a framework for Canada+, but this could easily be changed to Norway+ if both parties agree

The negotiations will probably take several years, so extensions, possibly a Labour govt, certainly at least 1 new PM in the time
So the UK's position can change a lot in that time

Of course, the UK govt could still be stubborn about trying to pick cherries in traade negotiations,
but they would have to be suicidal to refuse extending the transition while all this is going on.

The EU would be happy with a long transition,
as this has the advantages of maintaining UK trade - which is very profitable - while continuing to attract business from the UK and fully reorganising supply chains,
... all the while with UK paying into the EU budget, but without MEPs or a veto in the Council of Europe on future EU policies.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 12:26

The Telegraph said that London subsidised the rest of the UK by £650 million a week

Hmm So London could say:

"Every week we send 650 million to the rest of the UK.
Let's leave the evil UKSSR, remain in the EU and spend £300 million on London's public services"

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 12:29

Andrew Adonis (@Andrew_Adonis) July 21, 2018

... I now understand DUP mindset.
They WANT hardest possible Brexit because they want new hard border with Ireland for cultural/political reasons.
But essential they can blame UK govt, so they claim publicly not to want ‘hard border.’
Deeply dishonest

borntobequiet · 13/10/2018 13:12

The Brexit Board Game (about 24 min in)
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0000qd6

Peregrina · 13/10/2018 13:16

One of the Guardian's letter writers in response to George Monbiot pointed out how the UK opposed reforms he suggests of the CAP but he conveniently doesn't mention that.

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2018 13:19

Translation: Those who are paying too little tax to fund modestly paid work of young, BME workers, women, unpaid carers for the upkeep and education of the young and of the cared for.

No actually.

More people who are doing over time unpaid when there are other around them at the same company complaining about how people on more money should be taxed heavier, when they are out the door at 5 on the dot.

There is certainly respect for those who are doing roles for the health service for example who are doing over and above, to the point that it's detrimental because they understand that - and they why they think more money should go to the NHS.

I think the nuance is lost deliberately sometimes on opinions like that because it suits political agendas.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 13/10/2018 13:30

The negotiations will probably take several years, so extensions, possibly a Labour govt, certainly at least 1 new PM in the time. So the UK's position can change a lot in that time

Let's hope that in that time, there is enough change in the electorate with younger voters coming on the register for it to be killed off, or at least to go for a Norway + option.

Thomasinaa · 13/10/2018 13:47

How difficult would it be for the right-wingers (or even the left-wingers) to move away from democracy, to keep themselves in power?

prettybird · 13/10/2018 13:59

I find it incredible ironic that Cameron (and to a lesser extent May) won votes in 2015 and 2017 on the back of a "fear" of Labour being puppets to the SNP. I remember the big billboard in the 2015 campaign of Salmond with Milliband in his pocket. And another one with Nicola being the puppetmaster.

So instead we now get the Conservative Government that has both paid a bribe to the DUP and continues to be in thrall to them ConfusedAngry

I'm sure that this is exactly what people knew they were voting for..... Hmm