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Brexit

Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2018 23:16

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

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DGRossetti · 12/10/2018 15:15

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/10/12/brexit_fears_canalys_channels_forum_2018/

Canalys Channels Forum 2018 Product shortages, additional price hikes and a recession could become a reality if the UK crashes out of the European Union without any sort of trade agreement in place. This was the message that came loud and clear at this week's Canalys Channels Forum in Barcelona.

Some people in the industry are getting jittery and it is understandable: the UK is scheduled to exit the European Union on 29 March, but the shape of that departure is still being negotiated by politicians.

Businesses crave predictability but there is no certainty to the outcome of ongoing talks between Britain's Brexit negotiator Dominic Raab and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier.

Tech vendors are putting contingency plans in place for one of three potential outcomes: a hard Brexit if no deal can be agreed; a soft Brexit; or no Brexit at all – the latter appears unlikely.

(contd)

Peregrina · 12/10/2018 15:21

There isn't going to be a deal Thomasinaa. If May looks close to getting one, Brexit Ultras will pull a leadership bid out.

This could backfire on them. At the moment they don't have sufficient numbers to mount a successful challenge, even with the DUP. If they mount a challenge and May wins then they are scuppered for at least a year. If May then cobbles together some sort of deal which most of Labour, LibDems, SNP and PC vote against then she is also scuppered and although the Fixed Term Parliament Acts might make it difficult, I think that she would know her authority is completely gone, and have to a call a GE. Who won then, would be anyone's guess.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 15:30

May STILL can't get a deal through parliament though Peregina. All they have to do is time it right. Thats the point.

I suspect there is a lot of calculating over timing going on, on how to scupper X or Y by various groups.

After we get into January, its impossible to have a GE before the deadline. That will factor into the equation.

EU also in the timings camp.

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Peregrina · 12/10/2018 15:34

All they have to do is time it right. Thats the point.

That is where they have the difficulty though, when is it going to be the right time? I don't know how well polished their crystal balls are! I suspect that is why they didn't make as much mischief as expected at the Tory conference.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 15:40

Seen a couple of references to this in the past hour or so. Seems to be the developing story...

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Guardian now also reporting extension to transition being considered

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/12/revealed-secret-plans-for-brexit-extension-option-to-appease-dup?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true
Revealed: secret plans for Brexit extension option to appease DUP

Effort to avoid Irish backstop would result in UK being EU ‘rule taker’ beyond 21 months

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
BREAKING Guido sources say PM will be making a public statement later today that UK will not agree to be trapped permanently in a customs union in any circumstances. Kick back on @bbclaurak report was firm.
Tory unrest on this point is reaching boiling point from grassroots to cabinet level.
UPDATE: May is NOT making a public statement but the Government is expected to clarify its position today

Andrew Neil @afneil
But will it agree to be trapped indefinitely, with EU having a veto on when/if we leave.

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RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 15:42

And the ingoing counter point:

Adam Payne @adampayne26
Exclusive: Theresa May given the weekend to change her backstop plan or face losing Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Peddy Mordaunt from Cabinet

"It is the litmus test for the taking back control... this is the killer moment"

Leadsom, McVey and Mordaunt will wait until Monday before deciding whether to quit, I am told. The backstop is the “crunch point” for them but they’ll wait until the PM formally presents her proposal. They want an explicit end date — and nothing less.

uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-weekend-to-change-her-brexit-backstop-plan-and-avoid-cabinet-resignations-2018-10
Theresa May given until Monday to change her Brexit plan or suffer Cabinet walkouts

Tallies with the special advisor meetings and no 10 bunkering up.

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Peregrina · 12/10/2018 15:44

Sorry - we will extend the transition, we won't. Am I the only one confused? May surely can't make any promises about being trapped in a customs union because one Parliament can't bind the next.

woman11017 · 12/10/2018 15:45

If they can just get to January, crash out happens automatically? It's been planned, including the release of crash out stuff, more carefully than we are giving them credit for, including faked astonishment at terms of transition.

Leadsom, McVey and Mordaunt will wait until Monday before deciding whether to quit
Not going to happen.

Peregrina · 12/10/2018 15:46

Theresa May given the weekend to change her backstop plan or face losing Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Peddy Mordaunt from Cabinet

Please put us out of our misery TM and sack the lot of them now.

woman11017 · 12/10/2018 15:47

one Parliament can't bind the next
I think we've moved on from that sort of thing peregrina

DGRossetti · 12/10/2018 15:48

thenational.scot/news/16977887.uk-accused-of-using-scotch-whisky-as-a-bargaining-chip-in-brexit-talks/

thenational.scot
UK accused of using Scotch whisky as a bargaining chip in Brexit talks
By
5-6 minutes

THE UK Government is using Scotch whisky as a bargaining chip to get a better deal with the EU, sources close to the negotiations have indicated.

Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator, wants the terms of the withdrawal agreement settled at a crucial summit next week to avoid the UK crashing out without a deal in March. Considerable attention has been given to the impasse over the Irish border, but there is also deadlock on the issue of “geographical indicators”.

These are labels which give legal protection to food and drinks from particular areas in the EU to stop them being imitated and sold cheaply by rival producers elsewhere.

READ MORE: Tory ministers are ‘not listening to Scotland’ on Brexit

Scotch whisky is among the items protected, along with many others including Arbroath smokies, Scotch beef, Edam cheese, Champagne and Parma ham.

The European Commission has offered the UK Government a deal that would have protected all UK geographical indicators in Europe post-Brexit, but the UK refused to accept, failing to agree reciprocal protection for EU goods in the UK.

One of the most valuable GIs in the whole of Europe is Scotch whisky and The National has been told by a source close to the negotiations that there is a growing sense in Brussels that the reason an agreement in this area has stalled is because the UK has identified the industry as a potential “chip” in the Brexit talks.

Barnier made clear in his speech updating MEPs on Wednesday that a way forward on the subject had not been agreed.

He said: “Since the beginning of this negotiation, we have made good progress. In fact, as you can see in this copy of the draft treaty, 80 to 85 % of the withdrawal agreement has now been agreed with the UK.

“However, some difficult issues have been left until the end. We must agree on the governance of the withdrawal agreement and on geographical indications that are currently protected in the 28 EU member states. Above all, we need to agree on how to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland for political, human, and economic reasons.”

The National:

Scotch whisky was worth £4.4 billion last year to the economy north of the Border and is sold in around 200 markets across the world. It accounts for more than 20% of all UK food and drink exports, with the value of exports set to grow.

GIs were introduced by the EU in 1992, setting down measures to protect products and goods based on three categories: Protected Designation of Origin, Protected Geographical Indication and Traditional Speciality Guaranteed.

The UK which has 86 protected food names including 15 Scottish products.

Securing a GI for a product is likely to give that product a competitive advantage over rivals and add value to it. This is because a GI designation is seen as a guarantee of authenticity and quality and enhances the reputation of the product.

In addition, GI status ensures imitation products cannot easily enter the EU market.

In Brussels it is feared that if there is no future agreement on GIs, products such as Scotch whisky will not be protected and could face a threat from cheaper imitations.

Post-Brexit, the UK is keen to get a trade deal with countries such as USA and Australia, which do not have a GIs protections but operate a trademark system.

A spokesman for the Scotch Whisky Association said: “Scotch whisky’s protected status as a Geographical Indication is important to the success and value of our industry.

“The GI system provides robust legal protection for Scotch whisky, which helps us to defend it in our 180 export markets against fakes and anyone trying to sell products which claim to be Scotch but are not.

READ MORE: Top UK lawyer highlights Brexit risk to Good Friday Agreement

“This means that when consumers in the UK and all around the world buy a bottle of Scotch whisky they can do so with confidence, knowing that what is in the bottle is Scotch and not a counterfeit product.

“It also helps the industry to generate higher and more stable export earnings. Scotch Whisky has been protected as a GI in the EU since 1989 and we fully expect this to continue post-Brexit.”

The Scottish Government said: “Scotch whisky producers and those behind our other iconic food and drink products need and deserve urgent clarity on this key issue.

“It is vitally important that we maintain our existing protected food names and other Geographical Indications following Brexit.

“Scottish Ministers will continue to make representations to their UK counterparts on the need to mutually recognise GI products with the EU – failure to do so would be deeply damaging, and this is a key test of whether the UK Government is willing and able to protect Scotland’s interests post-Brexit.”

A UK Government spokesman said: “Negotiations on geographical indications are continuing but we anticipate current UK GIs will continue to be protected by the EU’s GI schemes.”

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 15:50

Christophe Barraud @C_Barraud
U.K, EU SAID TO DISCUSS EXTENDING #BREXIT TRANSITION PHASE - BBG
LONGER TRANSITION COULD REDUCE NEED FOR BACKSTOP: DIPLOMATS

And there is the fudge that is trying to head off the ERG.

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DGRossetti · 12/10/2018 15:53

one Parliament can't bind the next

But a parliament can sign a treaty which the rest of the world would rightly expect the UK to uphold. We're not Americans, for Gods sake.

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 12/10/2018 15:54

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-budget-rebate-gunther-oetinger-second-referendum-remain-a8580616.html

Britain would lose its EU budget rebate were it to decide to cancel Brexit and stay in the bloc, the European Commission’s budget chief has said.

Günther Oettinger told reporters in Brussels that such a rebate was “no longer appropriate” in a family of nations.

Today seems to be a very busy day in politics!
Everyone is ramping up the propaganda, pressure on all sides before the agreement hopefully next week.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 16:02

May could sign a bad deal, then call an election the next day for the 28th March 2019, then the Tories could throw the election.

The public would blame Labour not the Tories, for it being shit, cos thats how it works.

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Peregrina · 12/10/2018 16:06

May could sign a bad deal, then call an election the next day for the 28th March 2019, then the Tories could throw the election.

The only problem here is that the electorate do not always co-operate!
I am quite sure that Cameron was expecting another coalition with the LibDems so that he could blame them for not allowing his Referendum.

May too, or her advisers, misjudged the public mood at the last GE.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 16:09

Jesus christ the stuff coming out about the saudi journalist and the Trumps is just...

....fuuuuuucckkkkk.

Its starting to sound like he was investigating something to do with dodgy dealings with Kushner at the time of his death, and there was intelligence that he was at risk of kidnap by the saudis but the US government did nothing to protect him and its highly likely was aware of this intelligence. And in Nikki Haley's weird unexpected resignation she made reference to Kushner being a 'hidden genuis no one understands'.

You have to hope none of this is true, otherwise Trump has gone full on Putin over journos asking difficult questions.

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woman11017 · 12/10/2018 16:13

thats how it works
Gordon Brown and George Soros engineered the American housing crash after all, it's true
But Jeremy Corbyn did stop apartheid single handedly and heals the sick with his smirks..........

Bloomberg Brexit @Brexit
Companies may need to consider leaving Britain or restructuring to continue operating after a no-deal Brexit, the government says

That's Vladimir Government of course. The new contingency planning officer. Wink

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 16:14

order-order.com/2018/10/12/nick-clegg-no-platformed-sheffield-students/
Sheffield University Young Liberals have been forced to cancel an event with Nick Clegg after threats of protest and disruption from leftist students. The society said that “after lengthy discussions with both the SU and University we had no option but to cancel the event.” Clegg joins the ranks of Peter Tatchell and Germaine Greer as someone whose opinions are clearly too dangerous to be heard by students…

Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate for Sheffield Hallam Laura Gordon wrote on Facebook that it is “incredibly disappointing that a small group of extremists are so determined to shut down the free exchange of views.” Guido agrees.

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RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 16:18

Andrew Neil @afneil
Downing Street briefs media Theresa May ‘would never agree to a deal that would trap the UK in a backstop permanently.’ False flag. The issue is ‘indefinitely’. Not ‘permanently’.

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Buteo · 12/10/2018 17:33

Trump has said Khashoggi was only a green card holder and not a US citizen - nice distancing from any responsibility the US might have had for his safety.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 12/10/2018 17:38

labourlist.org/2018/10/mike-gapes-no-labour-mps-arent-going-to-vote-for-mays-brexit-deal/

We could have opted for a different sort of Brexit – although at this stage it’s hard to see what that would be. While there is a parliamentary majority for a more sensible approach based on staying in the single market and customs union, myopic tribal politics have so far prevented it. And the leadership whipped Labour MPs to vote against the EEA. The government has refused to keep any of the ‘soft Brexit’ options open, and it’s doubtful at this late stage that the EU has a plan in its back pocket either. This is, of course, a major flaw in the Corbyn plan, even if he were to force – and win – an election.

We are left then with a people’s vote: the choice between Theresa May’s inadequate deal and remaining in the EU on the current terms as the viable and practical alternative. Lord John Kerr recently set out some of the ways that parliamentary procedure could be used legitimately and properly to deliver a people’s vote. If the political will is there, it is all within our grasp.

But is it?

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2018 17:52

Trump has said Khashoggi was only a green card holder and not a US citizen - nice distancing from any responsibility the US might have had for his safety.

Thats reassuring for anyone in the US on asylum grounds...

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BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2018 18:15

How Russian Voters Fueled the Rise of Germany's Far-Right

http://time.com/4955503/germany-elections-2017-far-right-russia-angela-merkel/

,,, But one uniquely German reason for the party’s success has been the broad support it enjoys among the Russian emigrant community
— bolstered by the noisy partisan reporting of Kremlin-backed broadcasters, whose reports on the elections reached millions of German voters
...
The AfD has estimated that about a third of its support comes from Russian-speaking voters,
several million of whom have settled in Germany since the 1980s;

they now make up as much as 5% of the population.

On Sunday night, one of the leaders of the AfD, a vocally anti-immigrant and nationalist party, appeared to concede – somewhat paradoxically – that its core constituents are themselves immigrants.
...
his party has devoted substantial resources to swaying this group of voters during the race this year.
It translated its fliers and brochures into Russian, ran information stands and outreach programs in Russian-speaking neighborhoods,
and catered its platform to the interests of this community.

Among the AfD’s core pledges on foreign policy is to lift German sanctions on Russia and seek warmer relations with President Vladimir Putin.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2018 18:25

Why not let the DUP run the whole of the British government? At least they've got a plan Grin

Don't scream - it's black humour throughout

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dup-budget-voting-down-theresa-may-boris-johnson-tory-infighting-ids-universal-credit-a8579671.html

The good news is that instead of dull press conferences, the Bank of England will be asked to announce all future changes in interest rates by painting them on a mural in East Belfast with someone on a white horse
...
go“Inflation is likely to rise to 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, for which there is an obvious explanation, which is that it’s God’s will.
Because who are we to interfere in the numbers of the Lord?
But to compensate, a new homosexuality duty will be introduced, of seven pence a thrust, which should raise £9m a week to boost the economy.”