Westministenders: Gin O'Clock

[RedToothBrush]

After disaster after Salzberg and a very predictable humilation over the Chequers Deal which the ERG reject, moderate Brexiteers reject, Remainers reject and the EU reject....

May does a press conference...

...which is delayed by a power shortage inside No. 10.

And....

McVey should have resigned from the cabinet weeks ago when she was caught out misleading parliament over universal credit. If any of those three become leader it will be a very sad day indeed.

Oh and yes, Canada means a hard border...

They can only contemplate two out of three major issues surrounding Brexit at any given time.

If anyone is to try to oust May I suspect it will be Leadsom, who is a sock puppet for Steve Baker, et al. Hope I am wrong because she is as thick as two short planks but Baker and Friends are not and their agenda is very much 51st State Here We Come.

The Indie summed it up immediately after her Salzburg tantrum:

Theresa May ranted with all the gravitas of an adult toddler – and with all the effect

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-rant-uk-eu-respect-adult-toddler-a8549081.html

When all bargaining positions are gone, all that remains is volume – if you scream loud enough someone might relent or take pity

Thomas Cook doing as they are told ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45624215

Holiday firm Thomas Cook has blamed the summer heatwave for a drop in its full-year profit forecast.

"Many customers" had put off booking holidays abroad, instead staying at home in June and July to enjoy the sunshine, it said.

(contd)

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

I don’t get it.
A Canada style of agreement took 10+ years to be finalised.
What are we going to do for the next 10 years??

What are we going to do for the next 10 years??

The clue is in the post above your question .... holiday at home.

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
Labour motion text as of 2300 - 'if we cannot get a general election Labour must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote on the terms of Brexit'

white smoke! - motion will be 'if we cannot get a General Election Labour must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote' - NB 'on terms of Brexit' has gone so could be in/out vote, not just on deal

so by end of Tuesday, Labour will sound a bit more Remain friendly, and shifted policy, more symbolically than practically, to support the idea of maybe having another EU referendum - big filip to those campagining for one but it doesn't change the actual policy v much

Big policy day at #LabConf18 - McDonnell measures on giving workers a stake in firms they work for, Rayner promising no new academy schools

www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-45621986?__twitter_impression=true
Labour plans to give tenants more power

But Labour says it would go further if it gained power.

The party's policies include:

Reversing cuts to legal aid for housing related cases
Introducing three-year tenancies
Banning letting agent fees
^New minimum legal standards to ensure homes are "fit for human habitation"
Giving cities the power to introduce rent controls^

This is broadly good. My only beef is with regard to enforcement. There are a lot of laws relating to renting (particularly houses of multiple occupancy) which aren't followed up properly at present. Throwing legal aid at the problem won't help. Tenants are too afraid to complain in case they are evicted because of the shortage of alternative properties out there. So people only willing to seek help after eviction.

It's crucial to understand this.

If the economy collapses too much it will be come an 'inverted' situation, where you live at home on 'holiday' for 9 months, then go away somewhere to work for 3 months, a bit like some Romanian fruit and veg pickers really.
Apologies if any Romanians are reading, I haven't had the privilege to visit your country yet.

I would say to Thomas Cook - you ain’t seen nothin’ yet! I bet they’re bricking it.

Except the door to the EU will be shut as we would have be stripped of our right to FOM.

As suggested, the Thomas Cook story triggered a "Pull the other one" reaction for me. Either they are announcing to the world that their business is reliant on peoples last-minute bookings. Making them more the budget operator they probably won't want to be seen as. Or they are announcing that there were fewer people planning holidays in 2018 than 2017.

I don't really mind either interpretation. But neither is particularly good. For Thomas Cook, or the wider leisure/travel industry.

The door to the EU is open, but you will need work visas and a time limit, possibly like the green card in the USA?

The door to the EU is open, but you will need work visas and a time limit, possibly like the green card in the USA?

Will a visa be employer-specific ? And subject to review ? After all, with the UK as a 3rd country, why would the EU want to import skills if they didn't need to ? Plus the scope for criminal record checks - again, why would they want to import people of dubious character ?

Thomas Cook is linked with many European travel agencies.
Although at least some is nominally 'British' I haven't the time to look up where it is really anchored.
The idea of having work specific visas would be suitable 'revenge' on the oh so mighty British. Wanted, Broccoli pickers only.

The idea of having work specific visas would be suitable 'revenge' on the oh so mighty British.

But sensible. After all, if your stated intention is to support your indigenous workforce, you'd want to limit external labour to specific roles in specific organisations ?

I wonder how US visas work ?

I sold a quarter of my quite large shareholding in a FTSE 100 manufacturing company this morning. Just too risky now that hard brexit looks at least 50:50. Will probably sell more if sterling weakens again.

Just have to decide now where to put the proceeds, a good sterling hedge needed. (I already have enough exposure to precious metals).

Even a Canada deal is not possible without the NI border backstop

Before the start of any negotiations, the EU Commission appoints a chief negotiator, who then obtains a mandate of aims and limits agreed by all members

The RoI would insist on the backstop and at least 24 of the 26 other members would support them
After the long-drawn out drama over the A50 backstop, the negotiator would probably be instructed that the backstop to the future deal is to be agreed and signed as step 1, before any other issues are discusses

So, the negotiations would not start until the Uk agrees that the future deal would contain the NI backstop

I sold a quarter of my quite large shareholding in a FTSE 100 manufacturing company this morning. Just too risky now that hard brexit looks at least 50:50. Will probably sell more if sterling weakens again.

A friend of mine told me they were doing similar three weeks ago. Their has a mortgage so they have put it into an offset account linked to the mortgage.

They too were very concerned that shares were becoming too high risk and they were not prepared to take the gamble.

I am concerned about DH's pension. The outlook isn't great. I don't have anything so we are relying on his.

So, the negotiations would not start until the Uk agrees that the future deal would contain the NI backstop

Especially as the UK governments official policy has been to immediately cast doubt on any verbal assurances given for home consumption.

I was pleased to see the Labour plans for education - scrap Gove's Free Schools, allow LAs to take back Academy schools, (although this could go further), stop Academies making up their own admission rules. Yes, a good start.

EU countries, especially Germany, are happy for skilled workers from 3rd countries like India, S Korea, China
in fields where they have shortages
e.g. scientists, graduate engineers - the working language in those fields is often English
or that bring in lots of wealth
e.g. senior banking / financial / legal professionals

It is just the unskilled / semi-skilled Brits who would have problems getting a visa, pensioners too

So, expect a braindrain from the UK - the science braindrain started soon after the Ref and has accelerated;
Frankfurt area property has been booming ever since and international banks have been reserving school places, so expect the City of London to lose out as well.

I think the USA green card system (about 30 years ago) was that you had a USA company 'sponsor' you, so effectively keeping tabs on where you were. Could be completely wrong and I expect there were many other schemes.

The BBC had a 'clearout' of engineers around 1990 (?) era, where they let many techs go. Of course many set themselves up as 'consultants' and as many of the skills were so unique to the BBC, essentially kept the same jobs but got paid even more. That period was referred to as 'black spot'.

LeClerc When I looked into working in the USA in the early 1990s, that was the scheme - I would have had to have a job and a US sponsor.

However I had too many warnings of companies promising a good salary, then people suddenly finding the first month that they were on half what they thought, which they either had to accept or leave

• and that it was very difficult in practice while still in the US to obtain visa sponsorship from another employer.

The big difference in the 2 work visa systems, EU vs USA, is that the EU visa gives you 5 years to stay and providing you remain self-supporting, you are free to change jobs

Under the US system, the visa is company-specific, so the company has their employees over a barrel
Fine if you are a high-flyer with lots of firms chasing you with telephone number salaries; risky if you are a middle range mc professional

The problem with the US is that in many states they can hire & fire without notice, or cut pay.
I don't know how legal all that is, but it happened to a few fellow scientists, which warned me off

EU countries have much more worker protection