Think 1920s Russia.
It is difficult to pinpoint the economic impact of ‘no deal’ with certainty. Many economists expect the pound to fall in value in the event of ‘no deal’. This would mean the price of imports would rise, pushing up inflation. However, UK exports would become cheaper internationally, potentially mitigating some of the disruptive effects on trading with the EU. There might also by an opportunity for improved UK growth prospects from trade deals with other non-EU countries
LOL
But most economic modelling in this area shows that the potential benefits of leaving the EU with no deal over the longer term do not make up for the higher trade barriers with the EU, given its importance to the UK
#DirtyRemainer
With no withdrawal agreement or framework for future relations, trade between the two economies would be conducted under the terms of the World Trade Organisation. Tariffs on UK exports to the EU and vice versa are expected (assuming the UK would not change its Most Favoured Nation tariffs under WTO rules). Tariffs would be low, averaging around 3%, but for some goods they would be higher. Potentially more disruptive would be non-tariff barriers, where additional paperwork, customs checks, technical requirements and regulatory standards could slow things down
At the moment of leaving the EU customs union without a deal, the border between the UK and the EU would become a customs border. This is likely to mean more customs controls and probably increased costs and delays for business. It is estimated, for example, that delays caused by customs checks of trucks from the EU could cause a 17-mile queue at the port of Dover
^A hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland
The EU and the UK Government share a commitment to avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but they have yet to reach an agreement on how best to avoid checks and infrastructure at the border. Technology, a degree of ongoing regulatory alignment and some sort of customs agreement have all been suggested as possible solutions, but it is unlikely that any of these would be in place in a no-deal scenario^
One proposed solution to avoid disruption at the border is for the UK to waive checks and tariffs on EU goods as they enter NI. However, many trade experts believe this would trigger the Most Favoured Nation principle that applies to all WTO agreements, which would require the UK to waive its tariffs and checks on goods coming in from all other countries. The EU has said they would impose checks on goods entering Ireland regardless. This would cause delays and probably reduce trade, particularly in agri-foods, which make up a large proportion of cross-border trade
There are concerns, shared by the UK government, that if there is infrastructure on the border to enable checks on goods, it would become a target for dissident republicans. However, some commentators believe that border checks would not inspire a new wave of dissident activity, and that any infrastructure and checks can be done away from the border, which would lessen their impact. The majority of people in Northern Ireland are opposed to any form of North-South border checks
^Free movement
Free movement of people rights, whereby any EU national can work in, live in or provide services in any EU Member State providing they meet certain conditions, is a key citizens’ right that will be affected by a no-deal Brexit^
The Government wants to implement a ‘settled status’ regime for EU nationals in the UK, whether there is a withdrawal agreement or not. Those with settled status should have full access to UK social security benefits. The position of those who on exit day have not yet been resident in the UK for five years – those with ‘pre-settled status’ – is less clear
For UK nationals in the EU it is unclear whether they could continue to access UK social security benefits in the EU27 Member State they reside in at the time. The existing reciprocal healthcare arrangements for UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK would probably end
Food supply is way down on the list.
Keep calm and starve and all that.
Food supply Half of the UK’s food and drink supply comes from within the UK, with 30% from the EU and 20% from the rest of the world. Potential disruption to food supplies immediately after a no-deal Brexit has been given regular media coverage. Exiting the EU Secretary Dominic Raab told the Exiting the EU Committee that the Government would “look at this issue in the round and make sure that there is adequate food supply…”. The retail sector is concerned about the practicalities of stockpiling food