Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

woman that photo has sent my blood pressure through the roof. 198,000 human beings signed that petition in good faith. RIP democracy.

My nomination for favourite headline of September

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-dollar-euro-exchange-rates-michel-barnier-brexit-a8532251.html

'Pound whisperer' Michel Barnier Keeps Sterling Buoyant

It conjures up so much visual imagery for me, Barnier whispering away to a giant pound coin on a buoyant yacht in the middle of the sea

perhaps I've gone mad

Looks like it mother

it's disgraceful.

So only economists who agree with Brexiteers aren't useless

I'm all for differences of opinion between economists, but this man it so stupid it is actually painful to listen to him. He almost makes Davis and Raab look like towering intellectual giants.

Awww, there's going to be a human and dog march for a second referendum

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/thousands-dogs-descend-parliament-pet-13225944

"All this bad brexit news must give us paws for thought."

Its baffling that almost every economist except Minford can use evidence based analysis to suggest that WTO trading is not going to be good for the UK.

Minford's free trade ideas would lead to the destruction of manufacturing and agriculture in the UK, its what they never add to this argument.

I'm fairly sure if they'd trailed around the Northern and rural areas with a bus that said, cheaper goods but no jobs, they'd have lost the referendum.

I like the concept that Britain is taking back control, yet Mr Barnier speaks a couple of sentences and the markets react but since the UK are hardly listening to the words Mr Barnier is saying they think it will all be great. So far I think Mr Barnier has been doing his job well which is good for the EU. Shame that despite the EU speeches being available in 27 or more languages, the UK Gov can't manage to understand the English version.
Maybe they should have offered free chocolates or something to get a better attendance at that meeting, I believe such a strategy works with children.

I'm reading their release now.

They link to their own publications as sources for their evidence to back their assertions.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-45474989

Oil and gas platforms could have to be shut down if a deal on Brexit leads to difficulties accessing skilled workers, according to an industry report.

The warning comes in Oil and Gas UK's latest economic report.

It said delays in accessing labour markets from EU countries have the potential, in some instances, of leading to production being shut in.

The UK government said employers could continue recruiting from Europe up until 2020.

(contd)

Can anyone shed any light on that last sentence ? Are oil rigs special territories or something ?

Arghhhhhhhjhhh

The fucking report they released even misquotes evidence to back their assertions:

"a recent Bank of England report (Nickell and Saleheen, 2015) also estimated that for every 10% rise in the immigrant proportion wages for semi/unskilled services would drop 2%"

No, no, no. For 1 its a 10 percentage point rise, not a 10% rise.

Fuck me this is amateur hour here.

Its utter drivel, and misunderstands so many things.

These economists are muppets.

I'm not sure if he is still with us but is Russel Grant or Mystic Meg in charge of financial projections there?

They link to their own publications as sources for their evidence to back their assertions
In totalitarianism there can only be one truth, and we know who gets to define it.

Whenever they say nothing will change it's always 'until 2020' 'until 2020' as if 2020 is some distant point in the future by which time everything will be sorted out anyway. I'm sure it may have seemed that way back in 2016 - but day by day that mythical future gets closer. By March 2019 when we leave - it's only 9 months away ... 'until 2020' is going to stop assuaging fears at some point and they will have to admit 'yes everything is going to fall apart tomorrow'

And it will still come as a surprise to the leavers!

www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/A-World-Trade-Deal-The-Complete-Guide-Final-Upload.pdf

If anyone else wants a read.

dg though my knowledge of oilrigs is outdated somewhat so someone with more recent knowledge may be able to help out properly but I suspect it may have something to do with the licensees/current operators being large mutilnationals and the high level of training required for at least some of the jobs. Not that there's no British people at those levels but not enough necessarily to cover all the roles needed.

Rig working was where my DF perfected his foreigners-bad-but-not-you-particular-foreigners ideas 🤷‍♀️

They’re all here. Mogg, Davis, IDS, Boris Johnson, Baker, Jackson, Bridgen, Bone, Minford...

A right crowd. Does not even one of them have quiet, dark, anxious moments when they think of the possibility of destroying the economy and destabilising society? Are they so blindly confident?
The onus is on them to make this work. If I was them, I'd be secretly worried.

thanks topcat. Just skimmed it, and realised I was wrong all the time, Looks like it's going to be splendid.

Nice to see something not written by experts to:
Is leaving the EU worth the candle?
And
But, won’t we be the economic losers relative to the EU?
No, to the contrary they're so un experty they don't even care about the correct prepositions.

What about market access for services in general
As there never has been an EU ‘single market’ for services, there is not much to lose

I think I am now a believer.

It's brilliant. Thanks. I am utterly convinced. And going for a lie down.

I note with glee all of the assumptions are based on the fact that we will have reciprocal free trade with all other countries.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

It also refers to using the WTO MFN system as a World Free Trade deal and then says:

"Even if the UK decided to raise tariffs against the EU, EU producers would be forced to absorb UK tariffs in order to keep their
UK prices the same as world prices in the UK market"

Hmmm, if using WTO rules you can't raise tariffs against one particular bloc or country, you have to apply it to all.

"If wine from Australia and America comes into the UK market at lower prices than wine produced in France, Spain and Italy will have to come down in price."

The EU tariff at 6.5p to 8p a bottle on the Australian wine is 27 TIMES less than the UK duty of £2.16, plus VAT. It

Most South American wine carries no tariff.

They have cited a 32% EU Tariff on wine which is incorrect.

infacts.org/dan-hannan-twice-mistaken-eu-wine-tariffs/

Minford has been quite open that his vision of Brexit would mean the end of large-scale UK manufacturing and farming within a very few years after Brexit.

He has said these industries "only provide 8% of UK jobs"
So those will be part of the unemployment spike of maybe 2 million that I have seen estimated (maybe from RNorth ?)

Funny, when Brexiters keep referring to his work, they don't mention that he himself says it will destroy those 2 sectors of the UK economy

If the UK has to waive all tariffs in the aftermath of Brexit, at least to prevent shortages of foods and meds
then clearly there is no incentive for other countries to reduce tariffs on British food exports - because they will never get a better deal from the UK than zero tariffs one-way

Admittedly farming and fishing now don't provide many jobs but that's not the point, is it? Where is our food going to come from? Even if we accept chlorinated chicken, (which a good number of people will have no choice but to do so,) can the US up its production to help feed another 65 million people, just like that? OK not 65 million because we don't import all our food, but say 40% of 65 million = ~26 million.

So, since manufacturing and farming are to wind down, and the banking and services have gone to 'pastures new' (basically anywhere that isn't the UK) what are the 60 Million in the UK going to fill the time with?
You can only manage a certain number of tea breaks .