Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

I'd put May down as a Remainer for practical reasons but ideologically she is a little bit on the Leave side. She's only PM because at the time no-one else really really wanted the job

German manufacturing chiefs prioritise the SIngle Market over the UK

https://www.ft.com/content/ab2ffe38-acfc-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c

German business leaders have raised the alarm over the state of Brexit negotiations
and are urging the UK government to soften its position ahead of make-or-break talks with Brussels in the coming weeks.

“We have reached a critical phase.
The time that remains is incredibly short,”
Joachim Lang, the director-general of Germany’s BDI industry federation, told the Financial Times.

The warning from Berlin echoes concerns expressed last month by the chairman of Keidanren, the influential Japanese business lobby,
and highlights growing anxiety among corporate leaders
that Britain could topple out of the EU without an accord to smooth the process.

“If there is no agreement by mid-November, German companies will start implementing their emergency plans for a no-deal Brexit,”
Mr Lang said.
“In a no-deal scenario, and without a transition phase, we would end up with a border and customs regime that no one is prepared for.

There would be considerable uncertainty, there would be interruptions to supply chains and^ the UK industrial base would take a hit.”^

Mr Lang also voiced criticism of the UK position as set out in London’s recent Brexit white paper,
in particular with regard to its proposal on trade.

Among other points, the paper calls for a post-Brexit scenario in which the UK remains part of a single market for goods with the EU,
while excluding the free movement of services, capital and people.

“The UK says it wants to keep the free movement for goods but become independent with regard to the other freedoms.
We believe that cannot work,” said Mr Lang.
Separating goods from services and the flow of people and finance, he added,
was simply not possible in the modern economy.

“When we sell a piece of machinery today, we don’t just sell the product. We also sell services, data and maintenance,” he said.

“You cannot pick one freedom but leave the other three on the sidelines. That simply does not work with modern industrial goods.
We are not selling a piece of chocolate.”

His stance was supported by Bernhard Mattes, the president of Germany’s VDA car industry federation, which represents groups such as Volkswagen, Daimler and Bosch.
Mr Mattes told the FT:

“When you sell an industrial good you don’t just sell iron, steel and plastic
there is always a service that comes with the product.”

Both Mr Mattes and Mr Lang made clear that German industry continued to support the negotiating stance of the European Commission,
which has led the Brexit talks on the EU side and has been the target of intense criticism in the UK.

"Our message to Brussels is: keep up the good work. We stand fully behind the negotiating position of the European Commission,”
Mr Lang said, before adding: “But we also want to keep the UK nearby”.

Prominent Brexit supporters have long voiced hope that German and European business leaders could put pressure on Brussels to offer the UK a favourable Brexit deal < still hoping that ? >
That hope, however, has yet to materialise.

“We need to be realistic, 60 per cent of German exports go to the EU < E27 >
Only 7 per cent go to the UK,
and that share is falling steadily also as a result of Brexit.

That means we know exactly where to put our emphasis.
We want to strengthen the EU27, and limit any damage linked to Brexit,” said the BDI’s Mr Lang.

Much blunter now: Barnier has advised European car manufacturers that they will have to use fewer British-made parts after Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/02/michel-barnier-strongly-opposes-may-brexit-trade-proposals

... in an intervention that will concern the 186,000 people directly employed by the car industry in the UK,
Barnier warned European manufacturers that the streamlined system of imports and exports between the UK and the rest of Europe would come to an end.

... in order for EU carmakers to enjoy low tariffs on their exports around the world, they would need to shun British manufacturers
...
“By the way, the British have a choice.
They could stay in the single market, like Norway, which is also not a member of the EU
– but they would then have to take over all the associated rules and contributions to European solidarity.
It is your choice."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/02/britain-loses-medicines-contracts-as-eu-body-anticipates-brexit

Britain’s leading role in evaluating new medicines for sale to patients across the EU has collapsed with no more work coming from Europee^ because of Brexit

Bear in mind, there are those in power (e.g. Liam Fox) who will be reading this slew of dreadful news (well, dreadful for the masses, so no real problem) and positively beaming with happiness that their plan is on track.

Who are the traitors ?

I suspect JRM has an involuntary emission every time another piece of bad news hits the headlines. And if that's the case, maybe we should thank the BBC for their pisspoor coverage ?

Some tentative thoughts on Brexit and the Coming British Revolution.
Three events in the last 20 years have made me worried for the future The fuel strike in 2000, The riots of 2011, and two parts of the Referendum. 1/x

1. The fuel strikes showed what can happen to the country when supplies are interrupted. You add food to this list and things get dicey. Imagine if bread doubles in price because of Brexit? Everything will be costlier after Brexit so the middle class will be hit as well.
2. In 2011 the police lost control of London because a gangster was shot. Simultaneous riots broke out across many major UK cities. This was not coordinated. This was spontaneous unrest mainly about policing of minority groups.
3. The referendum is notable for two events. Jo Cox's murder and the cheating with Cambridge Analytica. An MP was murdered by a radical. No one else was arrested. He was not on police radar. Source of the weapon never found. An election appears dubious.
4. If you add these up you have a serious problem of legitimacy and stability in this country that Brexit will make worse. Fuel crisis showed what can happen to the whole country. It was not one region, it was the whole country like Brexit will be.
5. Riots showed police are not in control of most cities or only because the people are not as a whole dissatisfied only a minority at any given time are upset. Also courts ran 24-7 to punish the perpatrators, they faced jail, lost benefits, and lost homes.
6. When Brexit, after 10 years of austerity hits, who has anything to lose? Your benefits are lower, you are likely in vulnerable housing with a rapacious landlord in substandard conditions, and the prisons are already overcrowded.
7. Jo Cox was killed because it appears she was a "traitor" or betraying the UK by asking to Remain. However Remain had not caused any privations, loss of homes, inflation, worse medical care, less travel, less opportunity. Yet, she was killed and public rhetoric was violent.
8. Brexit means prices will go up, people will have less opportunity, there will not be as many foreign holidays, imports will cost more. Standard of living will decrease for a large number of people. Are the less stable in that cohort going to remain peaceful?

10. If you add to that Brexit is likely to see further erosion in NHS and other public services, you have a major pillar of UK legitimacy removed. The Crown has endured by being able to keep the people relatively satisfied. NHS was needed after WW2 for that reason. 11. Another pillar of democratic legitimacy, or at least the appearance of it in the UK to distract the people from being ruled by Her Majesty and HMG which retains prerogative powes (Henry the 8th powers) because there is not a constitution, a higher law, are elections. 12. These elections are seen as legitimate and their legitimacy ensures that people have a belief that there are peaceful means for political change. It took a long time for democracies to find a way to change power without killing people and elections was the method. 13. Cambridge Analytica and the Farage immigration propaganda undermined the idea or the principle that elections are legitimate or fair. Instead, it showed to anyone who cared to look that elections could be scammed. Remember this was with paper ballots. 14. You swirl that together and you have a serious crisis brewing within UK constitutionally. You reveal that the UK is not a democracy, that it does not have a constitution, and you show that violence (killing MPs works) and votes are frauds and you have recipe for revolution. 15. No. (This is for the Sun newspaper clowns, those who are purposefully morally obtuse) This is NOT a call to revolution. It is to point out you have the smouldering tinder and Brexit is creating a lot of sparks without anything to dampen them. The World Cup is not enough nor 16. is Big Brother. If you believe that the police have put spies in the right organisations either digitally or with agents, you have penetrated the wrong groups. When 60% of the country is disadvantaged it will be a spontaneous issue not a planned one. 17. The UK had better find a way to soften Brexit, improve the legitimacy of its democratic process, and improve community relations, as well as give people a sense of community (which is NOT attacking immigrants) or you will have people wanting to use violence to get redress.END

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1036210077953351680.html

Woman, thanks for that article. The one thing that scares me about Brexit is the potential increase in crimes. Plus, the police budgets have been cut so much

nuttynutjob nice name. . I can't even rank order what concerns me most. If we were looking in on a country which had had all this happen, we'd be shaking our heads. We are going to need humanitarian aid and peace negotiators, asap. ( and peace keeping forces)

The way the BBC reported on May today is interesting. No 2nd Ref. No betrayal of voters. No compromise with Brussels unless its in the National Interest to do so.

This talk of a snap election is interesting given May can't call one if she can't get a majority of her own party to agree to. Or she relies on opposition votes.

It strikes me as trying to ward off a leadership challenge by saying she'll force a collapse in government if they try it.

Plymouth City Council has become the first local authority in the UK to issue a legal challenge to the Government over Brexit.
I know others are looking closely at this. Something about a legal requirement of councils to ensure they have funding costs plans but the government prevents this by not having Brexit planning in place.

I expect there may be others who follow suit especially if Plymouth are successful

Yup Mrs8 I am now proper concerned.

Nothing I wasn't already thinking. I know others are already similarly concerned.

It's just seeing it spelt out...

Shortly after she became PM, May foolishly chose policies and public pronouncements that would inevitably box her in before Brexit Day

This is because she thought only of her party and of staying as PM, not what was the least damaging Brexit for the country

and because she seems unable to plan ahead more than a few hours in the future.

Now, no deal seems the most likely outcome.
Barnier and business federations in the E27 are warning ever more plainly that the E27 must prepare for no deal as a likley outcome.

Looking at the latest pronouncements from the German manufacturing federations confirms
that late November is the last possible date after which serious negotiations finish
and the E27 organisations activate their no deal contingency plans.

I hope the UK govt's plans are more practical than the fluff they published recently;
otherwise, we are in the "severe" scenario #3 or #4 of their impact forecasts - the ones that didn't get published, but were leaked.

EU must be pleased we are an island. Anyone got a boat?

German Foreign Minister Tells Citizens to 'Get Off the Couch' and Fight Racism

Heiko Maas urges Germans to combat racism in the wake of demonstrations by far-right protesters in Chemnitz

www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/german-foreign-minister-tells-citizens-to-get-off-the-couch-and-figh-1.6436163

Just like ours don't.

Still racism should be useful in his leadership campaign, which has apparently just started.

I realise it may be down to the reporting but it feels that in the last 6 months or maybe a year that the number of fatal stabbings/ shooting, particularly in London has got to a point of around one a day, possibly on average a bit more than that.
I don't feel this was the case say 3 years ago.
Since you see 'rioting' and serious vandalism stemming simply from 'supporters' following a football game, and from a bigger event such as the world cup the prospects are not looking good. Prisons are near full and with the reports of drug access in prisons indicating poor control (corrupt officers?) these will abandon any attempts at 'reform' and may have to go back to Victorian 'principles' of simple incarceration.

woman The Chemnitz fascists collected about as many demonstrators as a recent EDL one in London.
The big difference is in the reaction from mainstream politician:

Merkel spoke out immediately and even more importantly, the public is speaking out against fascism and the young are mobilising to stop it
e.g. The Tote Hosen ( v popular rock group, great fun) announced they will be playing at Chemnitz and they will have 1000s of young fans to stand up against fascism. There are many other events in all parts of GEMANY.

(btw, the far right are mostly based in the former East Germany - 45 years of a poisonous legacy there:
the Russians used to keep the population under control by whipping up xenophobia and e.g. deliberately bringing in African & Asian strike-breakers when the trade unions tried to resist USSR oppression of workers)

I remmember - probably back in the 1980s - when it was thought horrific and unmanageable that the prison population would rise to 40,000.

It's well over double that now.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-officials-whitehall-department-no-deal-civil-servants-uk-eu-a8519361.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1535926205
Brexit: Hundreds of Whitehall officials leave department in charge of EU withdrawal, new data reveals
Exclusive: The extraordinary turnover has led to claims of 'deep instability' at the heart of Brexit

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The number of officials who have left the Whitehall department trying to deliver Brexit is equivalent to more than half of its total staff, shock new figures reveal.^

Data seen by The Independent shows hundreds of civil servants went elsewhere as the department tried to get on its feet and cobble together a negotiating stance for the UK over the last two years.

The exodus means the average age of workers left in the department is 32, though they are tasked with winning a complex deal that could change Britain for a generation.

David Davis was a great boss to work for.

DexEU has 665 staff and 357 have left in 2 years

Demoralised at a task that will damage the country ?
At not being allowed to present facts to ministers ?
At not wanting to being associated for long with a dept that is likely to be a future career killer in your CV ?

A quick scan of tomorrows (Mondays) newspapers on Sky, with headlines like Mr Barnier 'ripping up' the Chequers paper. It is not news guys, its Mr Barnier effectively doing his job and repeating what the EU have been saying for over 2 years (exasperation!!).
The Idea that 20 Tories are going to 'scupper' Mrs May's plan, that isn't a plan anyway is also ridiculous.
You just need some arrows with a sign saying 'The cliff is that way'.

I suppose you can only make models with paper clips and find them interesting for so long. Unless some were / working on a plan that involves reality when seen from the EU perspective all else is pointless.

I hear on the grapevine that DEXEU is so desperate for staff that some of their hiring decisions - particularly on promotion - are, um, interesting... And a large part of the frustration is that every department has a Brexit lead (or multiple leads), so it's never clear who is in the lead on a particular issue

Thanks bigchoc in fact the little gathering in parliament square on saturday of english boot boys was tiny.

What I envy the most of other EU countries now, is their written and functioning constitutions. (and operational intellects)

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d43888f2-af01-11e8-8fb1-ac438dd6af00
The 20 rebel Tory MPs threatening May’s plans

No not Anna Soubry and Co. This is the ERG lot.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
^Nick Boles has a Brexit plan.

He was kind enough to share it in advance with me and (no doubt) other commentators.

It is not correct in much of its detail but that is not point; it is significant in that it is a call for a change to a more sensible approach for Brexit^

Brexit cannot be done (in any viable way) at speed and in one go.

(Some have long pointed this out.)

The EEA thing looks currently implausible (to say least).

But at last, behold some Tory backbench realism.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/01/backed-chequers-can-no-longer-support-humiliation/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
I backed Chequers but can no longer support this humiliation

Nick Boles MP @nickboles
For those who missed it, BetterBrexit. Org was launched today. Here I explain why we need a new plan for Brexit

My understanding of this is its either a Boles lead plan supported by Give or a Gove plan being lead by Boles.

It's supposedly Norway as a gateway to Canada, it abbreviate