Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

Finding the timing of the whole summertime thing odd. Did our leading EU role stop the issue being reconsidered? Is it a look we are moving on without you?

I also find it odd that Juncker said the words in bold below...

"The European commission will recommend that EU member states abandon the practice of changing the clocks in spring and autumn in favour of staying on summer time throughout the year.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, said that a recent consultation had shown that more than 80% of EU citizens were in favour of the move.

“We carried out a survey, millions responded and believe that in future, summer time should be year-round, and that’s what will happen,” he told the German broadcaster ZDF, adding that the commission was due to make a decision later on Friday.

“I will recommend to the commission that, if you ask the citizens, then you have to do what the citizens say,” said Juncker. “We will decide on this today, and then it will be the turn of the member states and the European parliament.”

Any change would still need approval from national governments and the European parliament to become law.

Under current EU legislation citizens in all 28 EU countries have been required to move their clocks an hour forward on the last Sunday in March and switch back to winter time on the final Sunday in October."

They probably got bored waiting for TM and gang to come up with a Brexit plan.
Since many of the EU countries are more southerly and spreading more to the east it probably makes a bit more sense. Although beautiful countries, Norway, Sweden and Finland have a lot more 'dark' anyway so possibly not such a concern for them.

Presuming there was a reason for 'bolding' that sentence, I would hope that the EU manage to ask a sensible question. Even if they didn't the outcome doesn't involve trashing one countries economy and pissing everyone else off.

It just seems odd that he even mentioned the fact that the EU must act on a survey of the people? Why even mention that aspect?

1. Organisations and govts don't have to act on surveys.
2. This survey was 80% in favour.
3. Any one individual member state presumably still has a right of veto.

I'm maybe reading too much into it, but it's like Juncker's making some point about the people having a say.

Also interesting on Gibraltar..

infacts.org/gibraltar-overseas-and-overlooked-in-brexit-debate/

southendnewsnetwork.net/news/stop-dancing-around-africa-looking-like-you-need-a-shit-and-sort-brexit-out/

STOP DANCING AROUND AFRICA LOOKING LIKE YOU NEED A SHIT AND SORT BREXIT OUT

The people of the United Kingdom have finally come together for one common cause – the fact that it is time for Theresa May to stop dancing around Africa looking like she needs to take an almighty shit and sort Brexit out.

You know the point when the little chap is literally touching cloth to the point where it affects your stance.

The media has been full of cringeworthy footage this week of Mrs May strutting dance moves that you would expect from your ‘does he like young boys’ uncle at a family wedding, under the banner of ‘securing Britain’s post-Brexit future with the African continent.’

It’s like watching ‘Alan Partridge Does Africa’ but 100 times more socially awkward, with viewers waiting for Mrs May to climb to the top of a rock, hold a small lion cub up and pretend to be sodding Rafiki.

Well when you’ve quite finished pratting around that neck of the woods, perhaps you could nip home and tell Dominic Raaaab and his chums to try and persuade Brussels that we could probably do with some kind of Brexit deal.

It’s not so much a ‘cliff edge’ at the moment, but more of the end of the Earth that you probably think is flat as well.

As much as I would love to start paying £17.95 for a banana and fighting my precinct’s champion for first dibs on the latest badger that has been run over on the A127, maybe we should try and sort out the whole Europe thing first.

Roadkill brexit badger yum, and I'm pretty much a vegetarian.

Thanks lonely i always think about Gibraltar and how it never gets a mention when NI is discussed. Anyway you inspired me to look up the Falkland islands. ..

Spoiler alert they to will be negatively impacted.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-falklands-islands-single-market-trade-eu-fishing-loligo-squid-government-a8347696.html

When the Sh£t hits the fan, eat a 'leaver'.

Irish Times: Brexit debate ignoring potential erosion of human rights

By Michael Farrel, an NI solicitor who from the late 1960s, who was one of the original leaders of the NI Civil Rights movement.

Not surprising he doesn't trust the UK govt over NI civil rights in the future, outside the EU and ECJ

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-debate-ignoring-potential-erosion-of-human-rights-1.3610399

"Human rights and equality structures have helped to hold things together in the toxic situation in Northern Ireland.

But Brexit threatens to undermine them.

The UK Withdrawal Act, passed by Westminster during the summer,
proposes to end the role of the Charter of Fundamental Rights and the EU Court of Justice just as soon as the UK leaves the EU.

And, although the Act proposes to retain most existing EU laws intact,
British government ministers will have the power to repeal any of those laws that they don’t like, without consulting parliament."

There are quite a few bits of 'little England' strategically dotted around the world. Ascension Island being one but it is mostly military airfield and satellite dishes.

Barnier & the E27 still continuing to support the RoI on the NI backstop

Still the roadblock preventing a WA:

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseSTATEMENT-18-54033_en.htm

"Finally, ladies and gentlemen, a reminder on Ireland and Northern Ireland.

We must have a detailed and legally operational backstop solution in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Prime Minister Theresa May has committed to this, as have all EU Member States and institutions - I think here of the Parliament.

It is urgent to work on the text of an operational backstop.
For that, I asked Dominic and his team to provide us with the data necessary for the technical work which we need to do now on the nature, location and modality of the controls that will be necessary.

This backstop is critical to conclude the negotiations, because as I've already said, without a backstop, there is no agreement. "

< and without this Withdrawal Agreement, there is no transition, just a cliff edge after 29 March.
Probably with the EU refusing to discuss a trade deal after that date until the UK agrees to a backstop.
The RoI and several other small countries would probably veto any future trade deal without this, anyway >

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-plan-france-minister-not-possible-macron-nathalie-loiseau-a8516476.html

Theresa May's Brexit plan is "not possible", France's Europe minister has said,
dismissing suggestions that the EU's negotiating position has shifted

Nathalie Loiseau said she was "surprised" to read reports in the British media saying French president Emmanuel Macron was preparing to soften his stance and urge European leaders to agree a Brexit deal.

Ms Loiseau said the UK's Chequers plan had failed to strike a "balance between rights and obligations" to the EU.

Her comments follow suggestions that the EU is increasingly willing to compromise in order to strike a deal.

< so more Uk political / media delusions ? >

I didn't realise Falkland islands couldn't vote in the ref but will be severely impacted by brexit - doesnt sound very democratic!

So we have England and Wales pro-brexit so says the Russian influenced referendum results led by the German

And then we have Scotland, Gibraltar, Nothern Ireland, Falklands islands and some other 'little bits' of Britain scattered about the place who either voted remain or couldn't vote.

Yup sounding very fair, well thought out and not influenced by Russians this is

Learn something new everyday bigchoc I have something in common with Michael Farrel I don't trust the UK government either

I have something in common with Michael Farrel I don't trust the UK government either

Actually, I suspect most of the world don't trust the British. Especially the countries we think we should be close to.

hazard And all those 100,000s of UK expats in the E27 disenfranchised after 15 years abroad - their lives could drastically change

If anyone is interesting in hearing Lord Adonis speak about Brexit and you are in the NW, he's speaking THIS Monday Evening in Warrington:

Full details are available here:
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/warrington-for-europe-with-lord-andrew-adonis-tickets-49481839514?ref=enivtefor001&invite=MTQ5NTYwNDkvQ2xhaXJlZW1icmFjZUBnbWFpbC5jb20vMA%3D%3D%0A&utm_source=eb_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=inviteformalv2&utm_term=attend

I'm British and I now there are over 17 Million other British who are not to be trusted.

Anguilla is another British overseas territory where the residents didn't get a vote in the referendum but will be completely shafted hugely impacted by leaving the EU

bigchoc adding in those 100,000s it's official for me brexit is off! Makes no sense to carry on. How shall I break the news to TM and co?

But seriously I knew before it was a bad idea and the referendum was dumb (not a big enough majority, didn't allow EU citizens living here a say even though they pay taxes, etc) but now I know a bit more i'm just gobsmacked.

Can't blame anyone not trusting the British government right now.

Thanks for the link olennas very interesting. The arrogance and ignorance of the government is bewildering.

Ian Dunt: Interesting analysis suggesting Labour Brexiters would tend to resign the Whip & Labour Remainers won't

and his resignation was probably NOT because of Labour anti-semitism, but because of Brexit:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/08/31/week-in-review-the-corbyn-edifice-finally-cracks

There is a reason it is Field going now and not one of the Remain figures.

When the final Brexit deal comes back to the Commons,
he will want to vote with the government and his party will almost certainly vote against it.
This frees him up to do exactly that.

He'll have lost the requirements of party membership in a period defined by sudden changes in political identity.

Field's decision not to take the whip could have important Brexit implications.

At some point, using some contorted form of language, May is going to capitulate on the Irish border.
There'll then be nothing stopping a deal.

Jacob Rees-Mogg's European Research Group (ERG) make a lot of noise but they'll probably back the proposal in the end because it secures Brexit - and then try to sabotage it from outside the EU.
The DUP probably will not.

That leaves just a handful of votes in it:
Labour Brexit votes.

Frank Field, along with Kate Hoey, Dennis Skinner, John Mann, and a few others will be key to that process.

In that scenario, all things considered, it is easier to be free of the whip.

The same is not the case for Remain Labour MPs.
The party will probably vote in the way they want - against the deal.

Their demands are for the leadership to adopt a tougher position still and to actually scrutinise and oppose the government's agenda.

But given that the party's drift is towards ever-more Remain positions,
it makes much less sense for them to leave, at least until March 2019.

After all, no matter how optimistic you are about a new centrist party, it's not going to be taking over government before Brexit Day.

btw, I'm not sure if it's advisable for the Labour Party / Remain to vote in the HoC against a Withdrawal Agreement, even one that is very vague about future trade,

because at that late stage, the alternative is probably no-deal rather than a better deal

(the last post is my opinion, not from Dunt)

another nag avenue

www.libdems.org.uk/exit-brexit

The lib dems exit from brexit petition is under 5,000 signatures away from its target. Obvs don't have to be a lib demer to sign and share.